I wouldn't even be contemplating February at the moment when we still have 20 days of January to go. In early February 2005 Andy Woodcock famously said he though that Feb would be a write-off for cold based on poor model runs, and no sooner had he said so than the model did a major volte-face.

One never knows what the latter part of this winter will throw up, even those at the MetO.

one 6" to 8" fall lasting 7 days would be fine , it is just so hard to get

ECM is a cold run and next weekend offers some snow shower/ trough chances with unstable PM air in place:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011112/ECH0-144.GIF?11-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011112/ECH0-168.GIF?11-0

Yep, plenty of cold air sat over the UK

That ECM 12z op is close to the general ensemble based consensus at the moment, even when factoring in GEFS.

So the GFS and GFSP op runs are extending the Azores High east at a time when most output has it backed well west. Make of that what you will!

Longer term (beyond day 10), it seems like most output wants to bring HP in from the SW eventually (by day 16), with differences being to do with how soon that happens - GEFS more progressive than ECM. From what I've read so far this evening, and after a brief flick through the GEFS day 16 charts, outcomes range from a standard ridge across the south to something displaced further north but very close to or right over the UK.

Potentially no incoming MJO influences at that time (decayed) so we'd be left with a residual 'forcing' from whatever phase it is in when it decays, but this increasingly being overridden by smaller-scale forcing (e.g. bursts of westerly momentum driving by jet phasing).

I'm still left with the newly emerged 'decay in phase 8' solution as the most likely cause of GEFS being more progressive to move HP east from the Azores.

I know, I keep on looking away ahead when there's a lot of interesting stuff going on in the shorter range, but past experience tells me that looking into the details until it's right on your doorstep (literally in nowcast range i.e. 24 hours) usually proves a waste of time and effort - it either falls short of what was modelled or exceeds it by a country mile 

the ecm ens have been rock solid on their solution of the remnants of the vortex heading se into europe around day 10/11. that euro trough being renewed once with another push of low heights before the canadian segment becomes too weak to throw out anything more in our direction (for the time being). 

as james has said, an atlantic upper ridge headed east by day 14/15 whilst at the same time we will have an established euro trough to our se. (yes, thats days 11 through 14/15 with a slow moving cold mean trough over nw europe sinking slowly se). will the atlantic ridge amplify sgnificantly ne against the euro trough or will it sink across the uk ?

snowfall opportunities for many parts of the uk beginning later on tuesday (with a respite only for the wed night storm and ahead of the second sinking trough day 9/10) until probably 25/26th jan. and yes neil, even for you!  

GFSP showing a mix of rain, sleet and snow next Saturday with a warm sector moving south.

gfs 18z almost gives a nationwide snow event at 180hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

looking at the other charts in conjunction with that I'd say a lot of rain. There a lot of milder air dragged into that

Almost :p

This tuesday trough really needs to be watched, most of the ensembles strongly developed it, yet it is not being shown on any of the other models either. 

This could be one of those surprise 10cms that isn't forecast.

Nothing on the ECMWF whatsoever, tbh a complete flattening was one of the likely possibilities. I'm still dubious though, why did so many of the ensembles like it?

Is that off a forecast, Nick? Ferguson wasn't giving it much credence earlier today, for what that's worth. 

I think given this we have to be even more careful about forecasts as to the location (which could be anywhere from northern England to near the S coast).

Its clear the models simply cannot cope with such a small 'meseo' feature, we might have better luck with the high res models. 

Is that some sort of personal insult? Ive made over two thousands post in here in this  thread and have not received any complaints I always try my best by the way Buddy you dont have to read my post if you dont want to.

He's updated recently:

W COUNTRY First snow for a long time looks likely later Tues/Tues night, mainly on uplands such as #Exmoor, #Mendips Plateau; #Cotswolds...

9:32pm - 11 Jan 15

W COUNTRY To reiterate: settling snow, rather than just falling, most likely over some uplands W Country/S Midlands. V limited lower levels.
9:50pm - 11 Jan 15

Chill. Major overreaction. He just asked the question. 

Not even a sniff of a mention on the Beeb, its all about wind and rain............................sadly, of course snow further north, time for change of course

Half way through winter and it's as you were (poor if you like cold and snow and do not live on a hill)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011112/ECH1-96.GIF?11-0

Bracknell currently lists it as cold frontogenesis. 

I would take this with a massive pinch of salt though. Anyway the end of the cold front is the approximate position of the maximum vorticity, and this is where any secondary low would develop. 

The BBC have been a little vauge about Tuesday, skipping quickly onto wednesday, I take that as a sign its still at least on the table. From their point of view, mentioning it could be very embarrassing if it turns out to be literally nothing (which it easily could be), while they could still issue a convincing warning the day before if necessary.

What the actual hell, most of the ensembles go for something, and some of them really develop it into a substantial feature (although no closed circulation from what I can tell). Also they can't seem to agree on the timing either.

This is like boxing day all over again. 

How on earth you deduce that's a personal insult from a polite question is way beyond me . I honestly thought you were using some device/platform/browser that meant you couldn't quote in the normal, tried and tested, run-of-the-mill, accepted, flowing way, that everyone else seems to manage...that's all. You've answered my question by your response.

Never mind, as you say I don't have to read your posts (I was actually interested in them up until now), and I can't be doing with oversensitive reactions, so I'll take my leave of your 'thousands of posts' now and put you on my blocked list. There - problem solved 

Sorry mods, off topic - I was just trying to make the flow more readable for all.

No further questions your honour 

Very interesting!... I've been holding out very little hope indeed of any lying snow from this spell... Now my 'hope index' (apologies Quantum if TM'ed) has risen a notch IMBY (a little further east than the forecast quoted I know but well within margin of forecast error at this range).