Okay I can't resist posting this eye candy from the snow accumulation parameter of the GFSP.

But be fair to me, I haven't had chance to use all my nice pretty charts, cos winters given us sod all so far! Anyway the max looks about 20cm (just purple), I recon we shouldn't rule out that somewhere might get that.

Please don't take this as a forecast, I think its possible the feature could easily diminish into nothingness, or the circulation could grow to be too much and introduce a warm sector (its finely balanced). 

If you want a larger version of any of my images, right click and open in new tab or copy the image adress into the URL.

Yeh but the maps are less pretty when I render them due to the worse resolution!

I can only hope the GFS is right, but we both know that its probably going to trend south overtime , its very rare to see things trend north, or is that just my imagination?

I kinda loose track, model watching can play tricks on your mind sometimes.

Definitely the best chance for snow this winter in the SE coming this weekend. Looks like quite a small window though as the pattern looks like flattening out after that. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

That low is setting up to be a real problem. Meanwhile I agree about the snow potential late in the week although the pattern seems to revert to rinse and repeat after the weekend. Not overly mild either

ouch!

thats horrific, I certainly hope it downgrades nearer the time

You make a great Express news reporter, tiny because that is slightly misleading.

You have taken one of the more extreme ensembles and make it sound like this a given or it is the op run. It isn't. 

Can we be clear on this everyone, it isn't the op run but one of the more extreme ensembles.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY JANUARY 11TH 2015.

NEXT UPDATE MONDAY JANUARY 12TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong Westerly flow will back SW and strengthen further later today and tonight before a cold front sweeps SE tomorrow stalling across Southern England later.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Continuing mostly unsettled with rain or showers at times. Near average temperatures will fall rather cold at times with some snowfall at times on all higher ground.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a very strong Jet Stream this week weakening slowly thereafter. There will be plenty of cold zonality type weather as the Jet lies South of the UK through Week 1. Through the second week the Jet flow shows signs of drifting back North with pressure rising slowly from the South bringing back more lengthy incursions of tropical maritime damp and drizzly conditions late in the period.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational shows a very disturbed week to come with a very strong Westerly airflow blowing across the UK with fronts rushing East in the flow bringing spells of cold and showery weather with snow on hills. A deep Low close to midweek brings a brief spell of less chilly and wet weather and severe gales before a general cold and showery pattern develops late this week and next weekend as winds veer slowly North. Then the latter stages of the run are dominated by a pattern reset as the cold ridge collapses and Westerly winds with rain and wintry showers at times returns.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is broadly similar in the sequence of events throughout the period with cold zonality the order of the day through the second week as further depressions crossing East to the North of Scotland. There is signs of a pressure rise across Southern Britain at times tempering the strength of the Westerly flow here occasionally with calmer and more benign conditions under less contrasting temperatures day to day.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run too shows that Westerly winds under polar maritime air rules the roost throughout it's run this morning with a brief cold Northerly next weekend when snow showers could fall for quite a few and frost at night could return. At other times rain and showers will fall wintry at times as cold NW'lies replace milder Westerly incursions, these especially in the South.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a mix of options surrounding an Azores High pressure and Low pressure to the North and NE of the UK. The bias of output favours a cold polar maritime airmass most likely with wintry showers in rather cold conditions though some clusters support more influence from an Azores ridge or also from deep Low pressure to the NW with milder SW winds as a result.

UKMO UKMO shows a strong Westerly flow towards midweek with wintry showers in rather cold conditions. Later in the week a deep depression crosses Scotland bringing wet and possibly quite stormy conditions for a time before West then NW winds return with with wintry showers again towards next weekend.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a continuing changeable theme surrounding two types of weather. There will be spells of cold weather under Westerly winds and wintry showers while a deepening depression crosses ENE across Scotland soon after midweek and followed by a return to cold Westerly winds and wintry showers.

GEM GEM today shows very disturbed weather across the UK through the next 10 days peaking at the point soon after midweek as another major storm system crosses ENE over Scotland later on Wednesday and Thursday with sever gales and heavy rain for all. Most of the rest of the time will be spent under rather cold and showery Westerly winds with snow on hills at times while further brief wet and windy periods occur too under a very volatile and mobile Atlantic flow.

NAVGEM NAVGEM reflects the storm system midweek too with rain and strong winds interrupting a spell of cold westerly winds before and afterward before a ridge of High pressure crossing East next weekend brings a breather from the strength of the Westerly flow for a day or two with some bright and sunny spells in places.

ECM ECM this morning also shows a lot of strong Westerly winds with spells of rain and wintry showers to come for all especially across the North. As with all other models it too shows a storm system midweek with very wet and windy weather for all for a time. Then cold and showery weather returns and lasts for some time before a weakening of the flow promotes quieter conditions towards the end of the run as milder air and SW winds encroach with some rain in places slowly from the South-West at the start of Week 2 .

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart overwhelmingly maintains the likelihood that cold polar maritime winds from the West or NW around deep Low pressure to the North and a trough over Europe is the most likely scenario with the Jet stream well South of the UK. Sunshine and wintry showers and some longer spells of rain and sleet would be the common weather forecast surrounding this pattern..

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning no real change in maintaining a basic Atlantic driven weather pattern across the UK over the next two weeks.

MY THOUGHTS While I cannot promise anything particularly wintry in any one place over the period there is plenty of weather to come across the UK over the next few weeks including some snowfall from a very active Atlantic and powerful Jet Stream having now moved further South than recently. The general theme of the weather this week will be one of cold Westerly winds carrying plenty of Wintry showers once tomorrow's cold front clears the South. The showers will fall as snow on all high ground, low ground too in the North and could give some disruption in places. Some snow could affect the moors of the SW at times too though Eastern parts with shelter should largely escapse dry and bright. Then soon after midweek a deepening Low pressure crosses the UK. All models have firmed up on this feature, crossing it ENE over Scotland at around 965mbs which is less deep than previously feared. Nevertheless, this is sufficient to give all areas a good gale with svere gales in exposure along with milder air and heavy rain briefly. The cold showery weather then returns and then all models show a varying degree of extent to a weekend ridge, veering winds into the NW or North, drying things out for a while with overnight frost. Later in the run it then looks the overlying support remains for the Atlantic to continue to dominate with rain and wind on occasion mixed with cold weather with wintry showers in Westerly winds. Despite my frequent use of the 'wintry' and 'snow' word nowhere in lowland Britain should experience anything more than transient snowfall through the whole period and this most likely in the West and North and on the hills and moors from SW England northward while many Eastern areas away from the bands of wind and rain could see a lot of dry and bright weather under the straight and cold Westerly flow, offered protection from the West. While not wintry armageddon there is a lot of interest on the synoptics at present and almost anywhere could see a surprise snowfall over the period especially this first week. This flavour of Winter is the best we can hope for though currently as there looks little desire to bring anything long term and direct from either the North or East with pressure to the SW of the UK throughout remaining persistent and stubbornly strong.

 I don't bet. With the January CET currently +2.8C above the average and December also milder I think the bookies will be taking a lot of long range forecasters to the cleaners this winter. OPI sponsored by Bet Fred in future? 

Indeed Kev imo at that sort of time frame the mean becomes much more important for true value and track

The rest in panel view

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

Have to stop now as Neil has a thread about it all.

 A few winter forecasts out there are unravelling spectacularly! This winter could still end up below average so the mocking can't start just yet. Fair play though to anyone who produces an LRF and explains their logic behind it. It all contributes to gaining a better understanding of our chaotic atmosphere. I don't have the balls to make an LRF (or even an MRF!)

If it does end up below average the Express and it's backers will be able to justify their existence somehow. If not I suppose they'll just move on to something like a 100 day heatwave.

Certainly not the weather story of the week, but the decaying front behind the 528 dam line that crosses southern UK might provide my first snowfall in 647 days (and counting). Could well be drizzle though!

Source: Met Office (via TWO chart viewer)

This is another "write-off" winter and thinking about it, why should we expect anything else? Decent winters are uncommon in the UK and following the calamity of last winter, why did we expect we would get anything worthwhile this winter? Just work on the principle that only one winter in five delivers anything at all (in terms of cold and snow), only one in ten is at all noteworthy and just one in thirty is the real deal. That does not mean that we cannot get two decent winters in a row, but then there will be a significant time lag before the next brace of bracing winters.

Prior to last year here in Banbury we had four on the spin , the snow caused us to close the business in three of those years

Unusual to get three sessions in a row and some of us hoped we were heading for a new and regular pattern. We were deluded of course, since our weather has reverted to dreary type. Bought my grandson a sledge in 2012 - it has now joined all the other English sledges as a loft adornment (I specify England, since Scotland and Wales can still get some hill snow, even in rubbish winters).

JFF , lets get that straight

Many would be smiling at this , not saying it would give amounts of settling snow, but white rather than wet

Well said although I don't think we can write off this winter for a while yet. One decent February snowfall IMBY in an otherwise poor winter would just about save it for me.

1 in 5/10/30 is a good way of looking at it (averaging out cold clusters) and this has generally been the case I think since the end of the Dalton Minimum despite our distorted memories and those of parents/grand parents!

We've still got (ATM) just over half of it to go. For all we know, February could be a lot better for those wanting cold & snow, it might not be. Nobody can say for sure right now.

The model output this morning does not look overly mild to me. Not a snowfest by any means, but not Bartlett/Euro High dominated either.

To my unsophisticated eye, the following chart screams potential:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

We have a long fetch southerly heading up the western side of Greenland which all the pundits tell us should pump up a decent Greenland HP - so the question has to be, why doesn't it work in this case, with the result just being a classic toppler? (Welcome nonetheless).

06z very different from 00z at this stage - instead of ridging towards us, the Azores HP is being pushed away:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1741.gif

Not that it means an awful lot at that range.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011106/gfsnh-1-180.png?6

HP has been squeezed out by colder air zipping in from the NW again

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011106/gfsnh-0-180.png?6

If this came off, it could actually deliver the snow everyone craves (of the wet variety):

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1921.gif

Wet snow can still create significant accumulations if the conditions are right.

ECM op and control maintain the rather flat pattern. No sign of northern blocking but not mild at least

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

The storm on the Control run

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011106/gens-0-1-102.png