I know this is last night's fax chart but this looks quite interesting from a southern perspective. Will await tonight's update with interest

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

Current synoptic situation.

Cold front still stubbornly sitting across the south. In the north a nasty little wave depression has developed, giving snow on its northern edge and a real risk of freezing rain on its southern side. This is expected to clear off into the N sea and disapate, but on the cold front another meseo system is likely to develop, which could give some snow for a time in N england tommorow morning first thing.

The charts are puzzling me at the moment... why are the troughs disrupting and sliding when there is no block to our east?

HIRLAM also looks quite interesting tomorrow night:

It's all starting to look more and more like January '84 - I was 17 at the time and remember how I gnashed my teeth in frustration at it all.

Like to think I'm a bit more mature about it now, just wish I don't have to put up with all this rain and wind expected over the next couple or three days - I have a feeling it won't be long before flooding is going to make its presence felt around here - and that's on top of the gale force winds on Wednesday night.

Because there is such a low height latitude gradient. The surface is steered by the upper atmosphere, without a steep gradient nothing goes anywhere, you also need strong winds in the upper atmosphere to fuel cyclogenesis which the charts are not showing. Ofc we don't have particularly high heights over Greenland/Scandi either, hence the absence of blocking.

This is why I am not overly concerned with the Azors high, as long as the atlantic remains like this, we arn't going to stay mild for long.  

Hi Rob

I saw your question then just happened to watch Nick Miller doing the 6-10 day outlook on the BBC Weathersite.

The jet stream will be diving southwards to the west of the UK next week and will also be about 100mph slower than this week

so the impetus to drive the systems across the UK with such great force like this week is no longer there. 

There are all sorts of possibilities now in the 144-240 time frame.  I think theres a reasonable chance (1 in 3) of something cold and blocked developing, perhaps not dissimilar to January 2013.  Anyhow, here are a few charts:

This is on offer @ 240 from the CMA, for example:

and this from GFSP @ 192:

This is the GME @ 132:

You get the idea - yes charts are cherry picked but they do illustrate the possibilities as the jet digs south and offers the chance for pressure to rise to our N and NE....

Indeed, trough forming at 200hpa level, a bit like a car trap for depressions. A depression stuck under an upper level trough is a gonner, while rapid cyclogenesis happens just to the SW of a very strong jetstream. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011218/gfsnh-0-162.png?18

GFS going for a slider 

GFSP looking good to http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015011218/gfsnh-0-162.png?18

Nice trend for the Atlantic calming down and height rise's around Iceland,scandi 

PPN starts to turn to snow in some Southern areas ^^^^^^^

By Wednesday morning a few Central and Southern areas might get a slight covering

GFSP taking large strides to an overall colder pattern with lots of different features to talk about. One in particular is the feature that is forecasted to arrive Saturday-Sunday. Interestingly combining 2 Low pressures with lots of cold air over the UK. That would be very interesting and potentially extremely snowy.

Some cold air is certainly keen to get across the UK

Looking increasingly good for snow IMBY!.... As with most snowfalls, it's not nailed until you see the flakes though...   If it's more than the briefest blob of sleet it will be the best since March 2013 , but nothing to get especially excited about - probably won't make even the top 10 snowfalls since 2009.

Ferguson:

W COUNTRY Tues PM/Night may yield 'thundersnow' in some western fringes, as cumulonimbus clouds bring combination of lightning, hail & snow

The accumulated depths on the Met Office video discussed on the previous page, which shows 20cm+ for you (and nothing at all for here) suggests a Bristol Channel streamer. You've done quite well from those in the past I recall?

Meanwhile, some further (mostly modest) snow accumulation does show again Thurs-early Fri in E4 for parts of upland S England (W Country/S-Central England/some S coastal districts).

Back in 2009, yes. 

Such an incredibly rare situation, and by definition it takes a myriad of things to fall into place for it to happen. The chances of it happening favourably again tomorrow remain as remote as ever, but at least - if only for a while - the potential exists. There wasn't even the potential for a passing flurry all of last winter. 

The NAE is starting to trickle out. 

Edit: Euro 4 or whatever stupid name it's got now. 

Heavy Snow in Scotland , wintry ppn coming in from the West further South

Turning to Snow as it moves inland ( South ) again Scotland and Ireland getting Snowfall

Wednesday morning Snow still falling in Central / SW parts of England.

IMBY post

FI but this caught my eye

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015011218/156-574PUK.GIF?12-18

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/12/basis18/ukuk/t850/15011906_1218.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/12/basis18/ukuk/weas/15011918_1218.gif