What do you think stormchaser? The way I see it, a million and one scenarios none of which are mild. 

You can stick a dot where I am right in between the blue and green 😢

I wouldn't worry too much. Those charts are among the most useless on the net. 

Well I'll be... rather daring of him to mention that at such range! 

Only shown to be a rain/snow mix by GFS and GFSP, perhaps because they don't really develop the disturbance responsible so the cold air doesn't 'tuck in' and bring about the transition to snow.

Those two models really trying to firm up on a slider low bringing either a rain to snow (GFS) or snow to snow (GFSP) event either Sunday (GFSP) or Monday (GFS).

The GFSP one seems a bit questionable though, as it involves the LP that most other output sends to somewhere near or over Portugal. Not the best way about things as it only just makes it far north enough to bring a snow event at all. The rest of the run manages to be disturbance-free which leaves us mighty chilly but relying on snow streamers off the North sea for precipitation.

It sounds picky but I really preferred the 12z run out to day 8, as that didn't have the Atlantic jet riding straight NE and cutting off the feed of lower heights cutting between the Scandi High and Azores High.

Plenty of room for changes of course. In fact there's rarely ever been more room given how much more energy the ECM 12z kept running NW-SE with the Azores held well away to our west.

Now, I don't like to dangle the carrot if at all possible these days, but I can't resist mentioning that there are reasons out there to believe that the MJO will continue to be more amplified than the models are forecasting for at least the next day or two, which could in combination with other factors (GWO phase 4 to 5 and +ve AAM tendency for those in-the-know) trigger considerable increases in high latitude blocking even within the 5-6 day range. That would most likely translate to stronger highs to our NE than currently being modelled.

In fact a friend of mine seems very confident in this happening. I remain cautious but would not be surprised if he was on the money given recent trends.

6C here in Dublin.
Dewpoint is 2C.
Not much much better further west.

A bit disappointing as regards the outlook from earlier today.
I'll let you guys know if anything kicks off.

Some folk asked which snow accumulation model Paul was showing in the UKMO video on YouTube. It's the Euro4 prognosis, but key to note we divide the accumulations by factor of 2 (at least) in these convective set-ups (to counter model tendency to over-egg shower 'clumpiness'). As we now get closer to the key period, UKV modelling will play an important role, too - with both models having ability to try and flesh-out important sub-regional detail based on orography, land class and depth temperature (for assessing likelihood of settling). There's the clear risk of people taking both the areal and accumulation signals far too literally, when the nuance detail on steering flow/trough developments/PPN phasing (and especially resultant likelihood of settling in areas sub-100m) are all key uncertainties for local forecasts.

We seem to have gone from nothing to several potential snow events in the space of a couple of days on here. Have a look at the GFS parallel as well. 

Thanks Ian. 

There appear to be several models and associated charts available to the general public on the net that show precipitation rates and accumulations. It gets confusing. 

Ian, or anyone else that knows for that matter, when and why did the NAE become the EURO4? Is this an upgraded version of what was the NAE or a completely different model. 

Or something else altogether?

Concur!

its actually a cold southwesterly for some parts - even rarer...

In other news Ive completely forgot to give the GEFS some mention recently... a quickgander will show that for Liverpool most members are going for a week of sub 5*c daytime maximum... (apart from the storm on Wednesday which seems to breifly introduce a whack of milder air.

This could be the coldest week for the winter.

Different model... NAE no longer exists. E4 is the 4km downscaler of UKMO-GM parent model (all Exeter NWP using same dynamic core) and now the primary mesoscale model for UKMO use across UK/Euro-Mediterranean. It's primarily a 48 hr tool but can be run embedded in GM at longer leads (and different geographical domains, such as for MOD forecasting in Middle East combat theatres). UKV development remains the priority for future UK modelling (2km resolution). E4 (with Chief Forecaster modifications) drives our BBC TV graphics at 0-48hrs; all beyond that is 25km UKMO-GM.

Thanks, that's interesting, because the NAE was your TV graphics tool prior to this wasn't it? So the E4 is a British development? Or a conjunction? And a global model? I don't know why - probably the title - but I just assumed it was euro limited. 

Nice to have you on the board Fergie - Noticed that the Beeb tends to update its online content an hour or two before it arrives to the public.  I take it you guys get first dibs - then unleash it to the public web?

Thanks to Ian F for the useful gratuitous on E4 - I have long thought that the broadcast ppn output was based largely on E4 distribution but didn't know it was wholly a UK model.

Anyway, I sense something is in the air this morning after last night's efforts to pull in a stronger feed from the NE on Mon/Tues and GFSP does the same. Note UKMO has raised both eyebrows as well. Still, early days and all that.

If we do turn this around and get a NE feed of some substance in the face of overwhelming odds for a strong mobile westerly pattern only a few days ago, I will be a few quid down but will not begrudge it at all

UKMO run at 144 is a beauty, snow fest!

Back at the weekend the Chinese model along with GEM were showing a Faroes based high for the time around 19/20 January.  I referenced this but chose not to post the charts as pretty much all other output was going for flat zonal, if not a mild fest, cool at best.

It will be fascinating to see if these lesser models had actually picked up on a prediction that ended up being closer to the actuality by the end of this weekend.

Meanwhile I will add my tuppence worth and say "welcome" to Fergie; and add that this is the best model watching for many a while - setting aside personal preferences,its the sheer volatility and unpredictability of the weather at the moment, oh, and the forgotten ability of a W or SW to bring snow to some that is eye catching.

Watching the 168 + time period v closely for some HLB and Euro troughing!

WI

The E4 shows snow moving across MBY in the early hours

Can't post the charts off this thing, but that E4 modelling is still very good for this area this morning. Not sure how much at face value it can be taken, but surely a decent potential for seeing some snow falling in this area and quite a few other southern and western areas. 

I'm surprised just how snowy the charts are this morning, especially ECM. GFS is also pretty promising prior to bringing a SW'ly in FI. 

The tweaks have been so gradual to something colder it's almost as if we're sleep walking into it. 

The EcM run is enough to make Steve Murr have a seizure