It certainly is.

Yep, we've been waiting for a 'Greenie' high to show up and lo and behold a Scandy(ish) high pops up, ready to pump air over from the Continent.

edit: ECM. Nuff said lol

Get your cheque book out!

Dont worry, I'm sure it will go mammaries verticus as it always does in this country

No sleepwalking at this end 

Glad to see ECM step in line with GFS and GFSP with the way the western N. Atlantic low behaves in 4-5 days time. We then see a far better attempt at keeping the flow of low heights aligned NW-SE to keep undercutting the block, though it does still falter days 9-10 as the subtropical jet wakes up a bit - lows running up from west of the Azores interfere with the NW-SE jet alignment. Looks like that'll be the next hurdle to overcome, but we can get to that on a later date, after sorting out the potential snow events beforehand 

Just glancing through the GFSP 00z run for central southern England (i.e. the last place to see snow) and there is some snow potential overnight 14th/15th, evening of 15th (very slight), briefly on 16th (band of showers could be snow though maybe not near coasts), afternoon of 17th (large area is now shown to cross England and Wales on Saturday - a new feature compared to previous runs so hold the champagne), morning of 18th (another area moving SE across the UK but is rain across Devon and Cornwall), and for much of 19th (slider low to SW... struggles to make enough inroads though!)

For the SE it's a similar story, precipitation generally less evident for 15th and 16th but quite substantial on 17th. Largely dry the following two days but then the flow turns easterly with snow streamers becoming possible.

Phew... not been able to write the s word that many times in a summary since 2010! All done taking GFSP at face value so massive caveats with that, especially given how marginal the ones prior to Saturday are.

With the Saturday one it's more a case of will there be anything falling from the sky in the first place?

I see Euro4 has snow falling all around me 3-6am but rain overhead. Would not be surprising as the Avon Valley up to Salisbury tends to hang on to less favourable conditions for snow both falling and settling until quite a bit later than the surrounding area.

- though actually, a look at the precipitation rates shows close to zero for that period anyway so that could be the reason (slight precip. is never shown to be snow). Whatever, I'm not expecting much - better opportunities to come this weekend and next week from the looks of things 

Well our Southern contingent are  far more happy with the current output with the dreaded  ( for west ) Scandi high showing in FI, other than that I'm surprised at just how quickly this has upgraded over the last few days. It does appear that the minor SSW has had some effect on the axis of the jet at least IMO, I'm with Ian F with regards too the depth of any cold this down to the influence of the Atlantic and the axis of the jet meaning many Western areas will always be on the fringe of said cold.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY JANUARY 13TH 2015.

NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY JANUARY 14TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and showery Westerly flow will be replaced tomorrow by a rapidly deepening and vigorous depression moving towards NW Britain tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and unsettled with rain, sleet or snow at times with some night frosts.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a very strong Jet Stream this week weakening slowly thereafter. There will be plenty of cold zonality type weather as the Jet lies South of the UK through Week 1. Through the second week the Jet flow weakens steadily though it's projection and orientation still close to or to the South of the UK may probably lead to little difference in the overall Atlantic driven pattern with a bias towards colder zonality conditions.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational continues to looks mostly cold and unsettled through the next week with cold cyclonic winds looking the favoured option controlled by Low pressure over or to the North of the UK followed by disrupting Low pressure moving SE across NW Europe early next week with a real risk of snowfall at times for all areas in among the spells of rain. A brief calmer spell is shown then as a ridge of High pressure slips east over the UK before cold zonaliity returns from the NW late in the period.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is very similar in the next 7 days, maintaining mostly cold weatehr with rain and snow at times, the snow mostly but not exclusively over the hills. Through early next week this run also shows cold Low pressure slipping to the South of the UK setting up a very cold easterly flow as pressure rises to the NE. A period of cold East winds and snow showers is shown then especially for the South before a ridge over the NW cus off the flow later but maintaining cold air in situ with widespread harsh frosts and still some wintry weather scatered about across eastern Britain in particular two weeks from now.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run completed the GFS set in bringing a disrupting trough down across the UK early next week with a continuation of cold weather with rain and snow at times before a milder period of Westerly winds follows a ridge South and a return to strong zonal conditions late in the run with heavy rain and gales in strong Westerly winds then but still sufficiently chilly at times to give some snow over hills especially in the North.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters at the far end of the 00z output show overwhelming support for a cold and showery polar maritime flow the most likely scenario across the UK with Low pressure in the Scandinavia region driving cold and showery WNW winds down across the UK with some wintriness possible in all areas even at that late range.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows cold and unsettled weather through it's latter stages this morning as Low pressure feeds into the South and West of the UK on the Northern flank of a well South displaced Jet stream. This means spells of rain and perhaps snow at times almost anywhere though milder air may filter into the South at times.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate a cold and showery Westerly flow today and tomorrow with minor troughs sweeping East enhancing Wintry showers. A major storm systems moves in towards NW Scotland late tomorrow with troughs sweeping severe gales and heavy rain East for all followed by a more sustained cold and showery period in increasingly slack but very unstable Westerly winds across the UK.

GEM GEM today keeps it's own theory on things, similar to the rest up to the weekend when the next depression is shown much further North than other output maintaining unsettled and windy weather with rain at times and though chilly less cold than other output with snowfall restricted to northern hills. Then next week cold zonality reigns supreme with Low pressure over ir close to Britain bringing spells of rain and wintry showers across all areas.

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the GFS route today in disrupting Low pressure clsoe to SW Britain over the weekend and start to next week with cold weather maintained and the Wintry shower risk for all complicated by the risk of more substantial and widespread sleet or snow across the South next week.

ECM ECM this morning shows a very complex setup developing next week as this week's turbulent and cold Low pressure weakens it's grip across the UK at the weekend. The cold and wintry showery weather type up to then would be displaced by cloud and rain and as Low pressure troughs disrupt somewhere across the UK a borderline will exist North and East of which will receive snow and sleet as a result while to the South wind and rain followed by wintry showers looks likely. This pattern looks locked in then for a while with weak signals for High pressure to become more dominant and influential to the UK in the shape of cold weather as we move towards the end of the month

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart has swung towards a build of pressure to the NE of the UK later next week. Although at face value the 10 Day Mean chart looks uninspiring Low pressure to the NW, a South of the UK Jet Flow and a trough over Southern Europe and high pressure building near NW Russia suggests the risk of a lot of disrupting Low pressure across the UK with rain and/or snow events common in cold conditions likely..

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning has shown a marked swing towards the possibility of cold and rather wintry weather to be maintained for quite a while this morning as the dynamics of synoptics North and East of the UK heave changed in prospect to those of late.

MY THOUGHTS The models this morning have at least whetted the appetite of our cold fraternity as there seems to have been a sharp rise in interest within most of the putput to continue to throw a chance that Winter 2014-15 will not be the write off it has threatened to be so far. As we enter the second half of Winter it looks like finally something of a pattern change looks likely with a much weakened Jet flow, displaced South of the UK allowing the chance of a build of pressure to the NE. All models now show some sort of trough disruption early next week from a trough moving SE across or near the SW of the UK. With cold air in situ across the UK the boundary front could give snowfall for some, where being determinate on the positioning of that feature. While this is going on pressure appears to want to rise to the NE and something of an easterly raw flow from Europe at least looks possible for a time next week. If this pressure build is sustained and strengthens sufficiently a proper cold spell is more than likely and cold lovers can take heart from my description of the ECM 10 day mean this morning. So why the change of heart from the models. The key seems to be the weaker Jet flow and that aided by the fact that we have managed to get it finally to the South of the UK greatly heightens the chance of a pressure rise in favourable locations to the NE for cold over the UK. With Low pressure still exiting Canada and NW Atlantic the pattern will force these SE either over or to the West of the UK maintaining unsettled conditions overall and cold air for most. So what can go wrong? The main worry for me is two fold, the positioning of disrupting troughs across the UK could be too far East to bring much else other than rain for many and secondly the High to the NE is tenuous and weak in relation to the grand scheme of things in current output but those factors aside the current output is our best shot at Winter across the UK to date with some further surprise snow events almost anywhere within the next two weeks with little sign of mild weather anywhere.

And it can be snatched away in an instant as we have all experienced very painfully on more occasions than I can remember

Remember the wise words of Ian Brown. "The train is coming only when you can see the train"

Hi Fergie!

Great to see you post on here, you picked a good time to make your move 

August 2014 was what, three weeks of below average temperatures? So not bad going if we can rival that, regardless of the actual temperatures and snow amounts. As it is, we'd have to turn around a pretty big positive temperature anomaly for a below average month...

A good performance from GloSea5 in terms of picking up the tendency for a NW-SE jet alignment (possibly edging more towards N with time?), if I recall you updates of a week or so ago correctly.

The possible ridge to Scandinavia seems to be a recent 'detail' that could bring cold continental flows into the mix - a modification on the sinking NW Europe trough theme offered by the ECM ensembles over the past few days.

All in all, it's been a fascinating period of model watching and looks like continuing to be so for a while yet 

[quote=Stormchaser;661260]

Hi Fergie!

Great to see you post on here, you picked a good time to make your move 

August 2014 was what, three weeks of below average temperatures? So not bad going if we can rival that, regardless of the actual temperatures and snow amounts. As it is, we'd have to turn around a pretty big positive temperature anomaly for a below average month...

A good performance from GloSea5 in terms of picking up the tendency for a NW-SE jet alignment (possibly edging more towards N with time?), if I recall you updates of a week or so ago correctly.

The possible ridge to Scandinavia seems to be a recent 'detail' that could bring cold continental flows into the mix - a modification on the sinking NW Europe trough theme offered by the ECM ensembles over the past few days.

All in all, it's been a fascinating period of model watching and looks like continuing to be so for a while yet 

[/quoteI think it's been outstanding since its introduction SC its rarely put a foot wrong. Whatever parameters are fed into it it's certainly working.

This must be the feature that Ian was on about last night giving some further wintry potential for the S/SW:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif?1

Welcome to TWO Mr Ferguson, great to have you on board!

Very interesting forecast by the sounds of it. The ECM 00z op run seems to be going with a colder theme this morning, which os in stark contrast with the GFS run! Will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Its not a boat

 Good to see you posting here Ian. To keep me happy bring snow in the winter and hot sunny weather in the summer with you! 

I think that's the wishlist for most of TWO!!

GFSP 06z at 1900 has the snow as a lot more widespread than GFS. Does anyone know why there should be such an huge discrepancy at such a short time frame? Hopefully GFSP is correct for MBY (no doubt it won't be.....)

Some fascinating output today that's for sure. 

This winter really could have some surprises up its sleeve in the medium term.

I thought that ECMWF would set the cat amongst the pigeons when I saw it earlier.

The output datasets in the GFSP are higher resolution, so it could be to do with the interpolation between points. Nonetheless, I've seen the current GFS op outperform even the mesoscales on plenty of occasions at very short range.

Cold air further West and LP sliding earlier in this run:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011306/gfs-1-150.png?6

Obviously this will chop and change but great potential

Rain heading into far SW:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011306/gfs-2-156.png?6

Of course, it could be that the LP doesn't even make our shores.

And indeed, on this run the block is stronger, cold air further west meaning the LP only grazes the far SW:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011306/gfs-1-168.png?6

Hi Brian,

Somebody on Twitter asked me about the Parallel run yesterday. They said they've noticed the Para is throwing out more extreme and OTT solutions compared to the Operational. Something you've noticed?