Same outcome on GFSP:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015011306/gfs-1-168.png?6

-8's heading South

I'm inclined to agree with that! There is another GFS upgrade scheduled for later this year, so shortly we'll be getting a new parallel run and the existing one becomes the operational. Be interesting to see how the new parallel run performs.

The GFSP is lovely - a proper Easterly flow establishes quite quickly, with no real warmer interlude either.

Given the Parallel will become the main operational GFS (tomorrow?) sounds like a bit of a step backwards?

I thought the GFS (Op) was becoming defunct today or tomorrow. Is that not happening anymore? Confused....

Tomorrow. The GFSP will be the new GFSOp.

'Big freeze' next week if the GFSP is right:

Please don't get the polar bears out.

GFS operational was cold to into fi with some snow around in the east especially before things slowly fall apart from the west in deep fi.

At face value the 06z E4 is amazing for this area tonight. 

Matty do you have a link for that model? I'm not a million miles from you

Didn't expect to see these charts this morning. GFSP 06z going for a throughbred easterly. All the models looking promising in fact. What could possibly go wrong?

The ECM ens are interesting, definitely support for height rises to the NE although the mean flow is still westerly but it's an improvement. Day 10 height anomalies:

There's a huge amount of scatter in the GEFS at day 8. Pretty much every kind of chart showing, very unusual at that range. So something may be up, or another wild goose chase. We obviously need many more runs before we can confident of anything.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&carte=

here you go, a larger swathe of Southern UK at risk of seeing some snow:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/13/basis06/ukuk/prty/15011406_1306.gif

Looks very interesting for Bristol, Bath and the high ground. Some caution - showery output, wet and not very cold ground, but does look like some areas will see their first snow since 2013...

Longer term trends starting to look interesting too, and I guess this is yet another example where things do start to pop up at longer range. Just because the NWP looks to be set in a zonal rut, doesn't mean it always will be.

Nice start:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011306/graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

Those snow risk % are going up.