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Do you mean the Op run only? There are still plenty of ensemble members that show decent setups next week
Originally Posted by: kmoorman
Which ones are you referring to exactly? (any links?)
A quick look through the GEFS ensembles, they are all over the place at day 7 with all sorts of solutions showing. E.g.
Shannon entropy must be quite high. Perhaps the 00z GFS is a good bet, as a guess.
Originally Posted by: White Meadows
So, taking Tuesday (156Z) to represent into next week'
Pert 5 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=156&code=5&mode=0&carte=0
Pert 6 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=156&code=6&mode=0&carte=0
Pert 10 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=156&code=10&mode=0&carte=0
Pert 12 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=156&code=12&mode=0&carte=0
Pert 15 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=156&code=15&mode=0&carte=0
Pert 17 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=156&code=17&mode=0&carte=0
Pert 19 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=156&code=19&mode=0&carte=0
Pert 20 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=156&code=20&mode=0&carte=0
All look decent
Is anyone else not seeing a 12Z GFSP run tonight?
As I mentioned earlier it isn't currently running.
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
Sorry - missed a couple of pages - work got in the way.
GEFS look messy and quite cold to me at 168. IanF's comment earlier about a colder but not unusually cold period rings true.
Holy cow.
Looks like I'll need to get some more logs in.
They were hand-picked to show Sussex coldness though - there are as many showing much less favourable setups.
Still all to play for.
At this stage ready to take the most convincing charts so far this winter for cold and the coldest METO medium term outlook of the winter.yes the most likely evolution,given the absencse of strong northern blocking is a Scandi HP gets squeezed away SE.
But if a Scandi HP gets in place a colde revolution could still happen.
What's that! Also been notified there could be issues tomorrow morning. I think the GEFS 6z won't be appearing.
Massive lake effect in the darlington area at the moment, if it keeps on going a foot is not out of the question.
The decent area of snow in the South is forecast to be a tad further South than earlier
ECM similar to UKMO
ECM continues the cold theme , again similar to UKMO at 144
I've seen worse looking charts at T+144 on the ECM! Very similar lineage to the UKMO, especially looking at Gooner's post earlier. Between them and the GEM, I'm relatively content out to T+144 with the possibility of colder weather remaining. The 12Z suite on the GEFS is notably milder than this morning though so no chicken counting yet
edit it's actually quite striking just how similar the two models are (UKMO and ECM) out to 144. Could be parallel runs!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015011312/gfsnh-0-96.png?12
GFSP on the way out, be interesting to see which route it takes
Interesting from ECM at 168
Day 8 on ECM and still looks a cold and in places wintry picture....................HP to topple across on Day 9??
GFSP looks ok , I'd say
GFSP does indeed look OK. The ECM is cold but not overly so. Rain for the southern half of the country I would imagine in the latter stages, then HP to topple across?http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011312/ECM1-192.GIF?13-0
Edit - looks like the UK stuck in a coldish col at 216 http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011312/ECM1-216.GIF?13-0
Potential for the door to open from the east?
Still in the cold on day 9 from ECM and as Rob says close to an Easterly