GFSP goes for a proper easterly albeit not a terribly cold one. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs1921.gif

Highs of 4-5C in the southeast http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs19817.gif

Trapped between cold air from the East and some incoming again from the NW, Day 10

Maybe a couple of inches. LOL Q, that is an incredible exaggeration! lol... and what lake?

Can't really complain about the output as we stand at the minute. The update today from the Met is also a decent one .

Still poor for snow imby though may get a few decent frost's

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011312/graphe6_1000_287_95___.gif

I just consulted Q's snow scale and we are on for 7 fathoms here 

Not a very cold one down here though.

No, not especially so at the moment but GFSP 12z shows what's possible and with the models flitting between various blocked scenarios there is at least a chance of something potentially decent on the horizon for us southerners. I have been watching the models closely the past few weeks and finally decided to re activate my password and get back online. Been some excellent and entertaining posts to read of late, keep it up guys! 

Yes but it is not very good and that's being polite 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

UK snow depth from the drop down menu

GFSP12z is now on TWO this evening and I've only just seen it. Well worth a look and again suggests a proper cold spell.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

PS: The local place or postcode forecasts on TWO have been regenerated using the GFSP12z data in the last few mins.

I might be looking at completely the wrong thing, but I think this is it on WeatherOnline:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Still not particularly accurate IMO

Not sure what to make of the models this evening

In the short to mid term it's (tomorrow PM/Thurs AM aside) chilly but very marginal for snow I'd have thought, depending on air origins, height, where in the country you are etc. (I am being pretty IMBY with the pessimism, sorry 'bout that)

The GFS London ens:-

Very good agreement for a chilly/coldish spell although equally a strong signal for it to warm back up to average in the longer term. A couple of the members do still bring in a more prolonged and colder easterly, although overall the run strikes me as more zonal than this morning. 

It'll be interesting if this is the usual low-res flip or GFS picking up a strong signal - it has been pretty good lately at getting trends right so who knows

P.S Really like the charts Brian has on the site now - easy to view and more variety (and useful variety too). 'Tis a big  from me

 Edit: Just glanced through the ens at T204, bit more encouraged - there's a fair few showing some kind of easterly, which at that range is good to see. I'll go with GFS overdoing the Atlantic and not giving enough 'credit' to the colder air/block to the East for the time being

I'd take this, though - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=108&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 Thanks - there'll be a lot more charts and features appearing on the site in the next few months. The server upgrade, responsive design and GFS upgrade have all taken a lot of my time in recent months.

For general info, NCEP have notified:

- the next 18z, 0z and 6z GFSP cycles will be running late  
- server connectivity will be lost for a time tomorrow and I expect this could impact the GEFS6z and possibly GFS/GFSP6z
- the GFSP upgrade is scheduled for 12z tomorrow with a final go / no go decision and notification expected at 11z

I wondered if you'd be back at the mention of snow!   

not sure what you mean by lake, but at present its frozen on the cars. Looking at the radar rainfall/snowfall normally goes to the North or South of Darlington in streams as I presume we are in a basin so to speak - unless it's coming from the NE then we normally get a decent covering.

I didn't say there would be a foot, merely that 'if it keeps going it isn't out of the question'. In the US cold winds over lakes (hence 'lake effect') often produce narrow bands that give feet of snow over a couple of days, indeed a big one can easily drop 5+ feet of snow. Now obviously the air isn't as cold as the US, but given the low wind sheer the band lasting for 8+ hours was not in the realms of fantasy, and given averaged out rates of 5cm/hour for 8 hours that is 40cm, lets take 10cm off because its wet, and you still have a foot.

Now, the band is still there and across the same areas, but it doesn't look like it is going to last 8 hours after all, but I don't think my comment was OTT at all, though perhaps I could have explained myself better.

I know btw its tounge in cheek partly; I am not really taking it that seriously! But this clarification might be useful anyway.

Also I note people have been requesting GFSP accumulation maps. I still can't get Grads working, but I'll promise to give you lots over the weekend (in the beautiful 1960s colours that the folks at meteociel are so envious of) ; the synoptics are essentially the same anyway!

I've lived in the UK for 44 years, 21 of those in the north east. A foot of level snow is an exceptionally rare occurrence, particularly in Darlington. I'd forget the theory in this instance and look at the reality. 

Is it? In 2010 I saw lake effect snow events that dropped those kind of totals within a day or so, indeed darlington was affected if I wasn't mistaken. 

I get its rare, but then so is southwesterly lake effect snow; I was only pointing out the potential, since the band has dissipated for some reason it didn't come to fruition.