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Gusty
14 January 2015 20:52:21

Simply stunning output with masses of snow potential (for most).


Here in Kent, Essex and Sussex the concern for snow lovers must surely be the tendency for progged SW'ly winds off the English Channel in advance of each event. Southern coastal areas may have to endure a rain,snow, freeze, rain, snow freeze cycle before a more established colder ENE'ly flow and potential convective stuff starts up from the middle of next week.


Scotland and the spine of the country look highly favoured. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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Hade Edge Snowman
14 January 2015 20:58:06


Simply stunning output with masses of snow potential (for most).


Here in Kent, Essex and Sussex the concern for snow lovers must surely be the tendency for progged SW'ly winds off the English Channel in advance of each event. Southern coastal areas may have to endure a rain,snow, freeze, rain, snow freeze cycle before a more established colder ENE'ly flow and potential convective stuff starts up from the middle of next week.


Scotland and the spine of the country look highly favoured. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


That'll be the Pennines then Steve


Hade Edge Snowman
West Yorkshire
1060 feet/323 metres ASL
kal
14 January 2015 21:01:12

Two winters in one next week!


 


 

some faraway beach
14 January 2015 21:06:38
For those agonizing over whether the ECM op suggests the Atlantic breaking through after day 10, it's at least a mild outlier at De Bilt. The control run, on the other hand, goes below zero at the surface at that point..
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png 
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
ballamar
14 January 2015 21:16:24
Why would people look for a breakdown - you might be too busy to enjoy the weather!!
Andy Woodcock
14 January 2015 21:34:31
Anyone who had just taken a week off from model watching would look at tonight's runs and faint!

In Januaries to come we could be saying "do you remember how zonal early January 2015 was and look how that turned out"

Remarkable turnaround if indeed it all verifys and even our friends in Exeter didn't see it coming, que massive downgrade tomorrow!

Andy
Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Andy Woodcock
14 January 2015 21:38:37


 


Moderately strong ENE or NE wind, low wind sheer, low pressure (<1005mb), Uppers below -8C or preferably -10C. Those kind of conditions would bring widespread snow to all but the far west. No other situation is capable of bringing such widespread snowfall.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You mean like 15th February 1979, we got 30cms and are on the wrong side of the Pennines, but I agree that's the best situation for nationwide snow. January 1987 was similar although depths in February 1979 were greater.


Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
smeeagain
14 January 2015 21:38:48

Why would people look for a breakdown - you might be too busy to enjoy the weather!!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


There are some that always do. It may be below freezing with a foot of snow outside and some will be fretting over a projected breakdown. Some will fret before it even gets cold and snows. Thats folk for you.. 

beanoir
14 January 2015 21:45:21


 


 


There are some that always do. It may be below freezing with a foot of snow outside and some will be fretting over a projected breakdown. Some will fret before it even gets cold and snows. Thats folk for you.. 


Originally Posted by: smeeagain 


Its still not even in the reliable yet, let alone happening.  


I fear people have banked this one quicker than normal.  


*runs off to hide the razorblades*


Langford, Bedfordshire
Arcus
14 January 2015 21:49:01


 


Moderately strong ENE or NE wind, low wind sheer, low pressure (<1005mb), Uppers below -8C or preferably -10C. Those kind of conditions would bring widespread snow to all but the far west. No other situation is capable of bringing such widespread snowfall.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Q, I love your enthusiasm with the charts and such, but you do tend to make sweeping statements like this that really don't stack up. "Lake Effect" may be your flavour of the month, but you really need to have a look in the archives about what synoptics deliver snow to the areas you have mentioned.


Stalling frontal snow and cyclonic purturbances have delivered large snowfalls in the NE and E of England on many occasions. Back in 2006(? I think) we had a Polar Low that trundled down as far as North Yorkshire and dumped 6 inches in 2 hours. There are many other examples of non-convective snowfall delivering to the many areas of the country, but I'm kind of watching the football on TV so can't be @r$ed to trawl through other examples!



Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
nickl
14 January 2015 21:49:19
No sign of this breaking once it sets in. We may get a ridge across us but the euro,trough never goes and eventually will be refed by the Atlantic. The mean blocking e of greeny could even spread somewhat.

Gooner
14 January 2015 22:02:10

O/T but worth a mention


H Willets mentions repeated LP's coming into the UK giving falls of snow next week


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Zubzero
14 January 2015 22:02:44
nsrobins
14 January 2015 22:07:29
18Z rolling and the whole pattern looks a tad adjusted south and west and more robust IMO. The Monday disrupter could well slide through further SW than previous run but it's all about the general set-up and not the detail.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Maunder Minimum
14 January 2015 22:10:49

Looking somewhat different from the 12z :


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011418/gfs-0-108.png?18


Much more developed LP coming our way from Greenland


New world order coming.
nsrobins
14 January 2015 22:11:13


 


Q, I love your enthusiasm with the charts and such, but you do tend to make sweeping statements like this that really don't stack up. "Lake Effect" may be your flavour of the month, but you really need to have a look in the archives about what synoptics deliver snow to the areas you have mentioned.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Agree. Q your recent obsession with 'lake effect' snowfall, a term accepted as describing the thermal dynamic snowfall on the leeward side of the Great Lakes in America, is IMO detrimental to your otherwise excellent contributions.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
squish
14 January 2015 22:13:39
+120 fax
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?1 

GFS18z very much in line with this
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
nsrobins
14 January 2015 22:13:41


Looking somewhat different from the 12z :


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011418/gfs-0-108.png?18


Much more developed LP coming our way from Greenland


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


In Muiresque style, just watch the Azores high and better heights trapped across Greenland own that low and send it packing to the SE.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
14 January 2015 22:15:19

18Z rolling and the whole pattern looks a tad adjusted south and west and more robust IMO. The Monday disrupter could well slide through further SW than previous run but it's all about the general set-up and not the detail.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1264.gif


PPN was across Wales on the 12z , early days and as you say it is more about the set up than the finer detail


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Brian Gaze
14 January 2015 22:17:17

Interesting temperature map. Rain and snow in the south west at this time. 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Zubzero
Maunder Minimum
14 January 2015 22:25:49


Yes, looks as though the pub run operational is delivering. Wait for the inevitable let down in the 00z.


P.S. lot of snow for Wales and the West Midlands on this run (18z)


New world order coming.
Gooner
14 January 2015 22:26:31

Weather type GFS Sa 17.01.2015 18 GMT


Again this is J F F  , a wintry feel to Saturday evening


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Zubzero
14 January 2015 22:27:40

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011418/gfsnh-0-168.png?18


That low is of to Spain for it's winter holiday 


Could be an epic lala land to follow 

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