When I studied the models quite hard this morning with my own Cloud Master forecast to mind, it felt like I was trying to play 3D chess with Mr Spock - and that's just the forecast for the next 24 hours!

This is the whole problem and why the 00z is a big downgrade IMBY - the 00z runs provide sleety rain IMBY, whereas it was snow on the 18z.

We cannot all be happy at once it appears. But the precipitation outlook will change in the next runs, for better or for worse.

I am having trouble getting the GEFS to load properly, is there a problem at the moment or is it a problem at my end? The axis aren't displaying fully. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=Norwich

The 0z GFS ensembles are very much trending milder this morning. Make no bones about it, there is a marked shift in the mid-term output.

I concur that perhaps it's a short-lived cold snap coming up with a few sleet or snow opportunities for favoured places, but a long cold spell this a'int, judging from this morning's runs and ensembles.

It could all flip back again but I doubt it. It rarely does.

The data is correct just the data labels and left y axis missing. I'll either refresh this morning or it will correct itself with the 6z run.

Some wouldn't be happy if it was showing absolute zero. 

Is this the feature across the south east which is supposed to bring Sundays, snow/sleet/rain ?? if not, could some one post a link to a chart showing me what feature is supposed to cause the snow/rain/sleet please ? Thx

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Problem is Matty is that we are selfish - we demand snow where we live. I don't give a monkey's if it snows in Banbury or not (sorry Gooner) or Bristol or Reading, I only care about my location. These marginal situations deliver for some and not for others, but it was always thus.

The West Midlands do well when there is a cold block to our NE with stalling fronts coming in from the SW - so that is my favoured scenario.

What a mess. Shannon whatshername must be very high!

 the easterly is almost dead thanks to strong pv and the northern jet, the curse of the modern and post modern winter. Now we rely on sliders and marginal frontal events and hope we can engage enough continental air and lower dewpoints. All rather exasperating. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY JANUARY 16TH 2015.

NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY JANUARY 17TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A slacker NW airflow across the UK today followed by an occluded front moving in from the west on a westerly breeze tonight.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Cold and unsettled with rain or snow in places. Drier and frosty later especially across the South.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow remaining much weaker than of late with a strong trough down across Europe into the Meditteranean Sea. The current projected cold period becomes more diffuse with time as the flow's trajectory continues to promote a strong continuation of cold zonality conditions across the UK longer term.

GFS NEW OPERATIONAL The GFS operational projects a prolonged cold period over the UK for the next 7-10 days. Within the first week generally unsettled conditions look likely as troughs and a cold Low slips South across the UK towards the middle of next week leaving a legacy of cold East wind across Southern Britain with snow showers possible near North sea coasts following a heady mix of rain and snow up to that point.. Then High pressure settles across the UK with frosty night, sunny days but some freezing fog patches before milder and more changeable conditions off the Atlantic develop towards the end of the run.

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run shows a very similar sequence of events as Low pressure disrupting SE across the UK brings unsettled and cold conditions with some snow in places and cold rain elsewhere. Later in the period Low pressure slips away South with High pressure across the UK with very frosty conditions before cold zonality conditions off the Atlantic returns at the end of the period with rain at times with wintry showers too in places.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show strong support for cold zonality conditions to be the more likely weather pattern we find ourselves in two weeks from now. Low pressure to the North and East of the UK is shown by 70% of  the pack while the other 30% a more traditional less cold zonal pattern under westerly winds.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a slow moving marked frontal boundary lying down the UK early next week on a NW/SE axis. This disrupted Low pressure will be instrumental on determining where snow or rain falls totally dependant on it's location

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cold and eventually quite slack flow across the UK. Troughs close to SE Britain give rise to rain and/or snow on Sunday in the South and East of Britain  while another trough edges in towards Western Britain early next week enhancing the risk of rain and snow here too later in an always cold and sometimes slack pattern.

GEM GEM today looks quite cold throughout it's run this morning. The first 7 days show cold Low pressure areas giving all areas at least the risk of snowfall as they slowly move South across the UK and away to the South. High pressure follows and becomes quite persistent and slow moving with clear and cold conditions with sharp night frosts and freezing fog patches most likely. Some intervantion of troughs into this High towards the end of the run could maintain the risk of some rain or snow at times.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the UK as a battleground between stagnant cold air over and close to the UK and milder Atlantic winds repeatedly trying to move in from the West. After a period of cold and unsettled conditions with a mix of rain and snow over the UK the Atlantic is shown to win out in this run later next week with rain at times in a more mobile but still chilly airflow from the West or NW.

ECM ECM this morning shows a very complex pattern next week with the model having shunted the cold pattern slightly further East to lie down the North Sea for a time. Through the period a mix of rain and snow is shown to occur across the UK as troughs move in from the West and disrupt before shifting further East with a less cold Atlantic NW'ly in places for a time. Cold weather is never shown far away to the East though as pressure slowly builds to the NE and this threatens to move back into Britain from the East later.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues to tease with High pressure near the Azores and Low pressure to the NW. The trough across Europe and the Med remains and this together with a Jet flow remaining just to the South of the UK continues to hint some rather cold conditions at times close to the UK although specifics are impossible to identify from the chart.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning remains for a protracted cold spell across the UK in unsettled conditions overall. All models shows High pressure more dominant later and a possible return to more Atlantic dominated Westerlies with time.

MY THOUGHTS Some very interesting Winter weather synoptics exist within all models again this morning. In some respects a classic Winter battle is shown between stagnant cold air across the UK and NW Europe and less cold Atlantic Westerly winds trying to displace this from the West. Much of the output has the battleground across the UK and it's where this point falls that is crucial in whether we see rain or snow from these features as they bump into the cold air. This is impossible at this range to predict and we need to see how the models firm up on this positioning in the coming days. Also in the short term Low pressure down to the SW on Sunday throws an occlusion NE close to Southern Britain which in itself could give rise to heavy rain near the coasts and snowfall on it's NW flank which could be a factor for Central Southern England and the West Country though even this is uncertain at the moment. Some may feel a little disappointed with ECM in the mid term this morning as it shows another option of pushing the battleground across and into the North Sea bringing all parts into a less cold but still chilly NW'ly for a time next week but should be viewed as just another option among many possible. Then as we look at the longevity of the chilly period the models still favour a UK based High pressure area delivering cold and crisp weather with severe night frosts and cold sunny days. Longer term still and the long term models reflect a desire to bring the Atlantic back in from the West or NW but there remains strong support even then for a trough to remain deep into Europe with the Jet flow diverted SE from the UK to the Med. All this is conjecture and at such a range and with such a fluid current situation synoptically any longer term projections could change considerably over the coming days. The one thing that I can say it looks unlikely that the word 'mild' will be used very much whatever direction we take over the next few weeks and 'cold' is more likely to reign for more days than not. In respect to snowfall there is every chance that snow will be seen by many over the period and for some rather a lot at times with the devil always in the detail as to where and when but if I was to express my own gut feeling the North and East would be best favoured for this.

Thank the lord for a level headed post from Gibby.

There is lots to play for and troughs etc will crop up at short notice - look at Sunday.

A very wintry week ahead with snow for the lucky ones, for those who are downbeat today - remember last winter????

BTW - anyone seen my local council offices!!! Somebody didn't get planning consent!!

Virtually the same then

Thank you Martin. Cold Zonality  is great this time of year and proper winter weather....

Excellent unbiassed and measured analysis as always.  Thanks Gibby

I thought I stumbled onto Net Weather for a moment with all the positive half glass full discussions.

A lot of people seem obsessed by Net Weather here. Very strange behaviour. Still looks like a cold week to come to me. Moderated only slightly for certain parts of the UK by the overnight runs, but still cold and well below average. I reckon most of the UK will see snow over the coming 5-6 days. Lots of small scale features and troughs likely to pop up. As for the length of the spell, still all to play for.

Snow hysteria level -2.

Of course, and that is why Moomin gets hacked off, every time I get snow he gets rain , hence why he wants a total freeze up.

You are correct normally the W Midlands get hammered is this sort of set up IMBY is normally very very wet snow

AKA Rain?

Agreed Darren.

Throw the displaced Siberian High into the mix and the models will simply struggle if not thrown into chaos.

I know it means absolutely naff all but anyway...the best so far this Winter

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011600/graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

P.S I have a feeling the majority are stalking Ian Fergusson all over the internet for any crumbs of comfort 

"Massive downgrade, after 9 days, the temps have soared to +4 kelvin. Blowtorch!"

I'm happy with the change, I hate it when those lows slide of to the SW and leave the NE dry. Downgrade for some, Upgrade for others.