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Higher 850's also associated with it, though
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
I wouldn't worry about that , heavy ( ier) it will soon be white for you
It's different for sure, but the area of ppn is more robust and ppn charts (sorry to swear) suggest quite a large area of snow Tues night into Weds.Also note the Atlantic high is further South, allowing the slider to engage at a different angle. Scratches head!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011612/gfsnh-0-120.png?12
more amplified than the 06z. Not sure if the end result will be any different though
850's are not the be all and end all.
Scandy heights putting up a better fight as the slider moves on out to the SE. Do we have a 'semi-classic' in the making with more of an Eastern influence going onto Thursday?
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.gif
could be better further down the line, HP nudging Westwards
We even get a quick touch up from the easterly. Enjoy it while it lasts!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011612/gfsnh-0-132.png?12
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011612/UN96-21.GIF?16-17
UKMO also has a deeper system.
Snow event back on ***FOR SOME*** with GFS 12z.
I might cancel Gavin's Thoughts tomorrow and stay in bed.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011612/gfsnh-0-138.png?12
upper high in a better position but still swimming against the Atlantic tide. The cold spell should last a bit longer on this run
Originally Posted by: Gavin P
Yes, too much Shannon Escalope to make an accurate prediction
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011612/gfsnh-0-150.png?12
Goodbye for now to the block. At least an improvement on the 06z
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011612/UW120-21.GIF?16-17
Oh dear!
Back to square 1 as soon as 120 on the meto run
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011612/UN120-21.GIF?16-17
Yes, the UKMO 12z is very progressive indeed as that LP smashes the micro block away and resumes us to Atlantic mush very quickly.
Not a great run at all. Has to be said it is all over very quickly on this UKMO run.
But GFS is a bit better than the 6z. But I know where my money is and it ain't the GFS.
My head hurts again!
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011612/UN144-21.GIF?16-17
May lead to something down the line rather like ECM this morning. Yet more waiting. Jesus
A cold frosty end of the week if GFS is correct. No Easterly of note again this run.UKMO is also keen to revert to a westerly in quick time. All eyes on ECM, Mogatops and the EasyClusters
It's like some weather model version of the hokey cokey.
This morning UKMO wad decent GFS pants and now vice versa.
You put your GFS in your UKMO out. In out in out shake it all about. You add the ECM in and you turn around. Thats what it's all about.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011612/gfs-1-180.png?12
Cold air still hangs on.
UKMO would probably be better longer term as the jet still undercuts the block, but too far north for us
GFS solution would take a long time to return to cold
Pretty awful 12zs it has to be said.GFS delays the inevitable for a day or so but then returns to full on zonal. UKMO us putting us out of our misery sooner. If it's going to break before really getting going I'd prefer it to be quick.
Originally Posted by: moomin75
Which day is that? Day 8? We can't get consistency at 48 hours... Sigh.
Are you bad at Christmas if you don't get the toy you want?
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Looks around 520dam 500-1000hPa thickness here with the chance of frontal precipitation.
The 12z output continues the chilly theme for the coming week or so. Details still seem hard to come by (as expected I suppose).
Use an extra strong raincoat
