theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Matty H
16 January 2015 18:40:34


 


Didnt you say a while back that you only bothered to read the posts of a select few of your favourite people.


Anyway,  at least ECM keeps it cold zonal. Fine for the north. Too warm down here


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Unfortunately I have to investigate complaints, and there have been lots of them. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
doctormog
16 January 2015 18:46:12


 


Didnt you say a while back that you only bothered to read the posts of a select few of your favourite people.


Anyway,  at least ECM keeps it cold zonal. Fine for the north. Too warm down here


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I was actually thinking the run looked quite meridional so far 


It is not a massive big freeze but it is loaded with potential which at this range and with variability could go either way. An interesting and probably very chilly few days coming up.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
16 January 2015 18:48:09

If people complain about reading posts that dont say what they want to hear, then they're the ones with the problem


Anyway, I think most of us could live with ECM. Not the clean cold spell we want, but reasonable


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011612/ECH1-192.GIF?16-0

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Frostbite80
16 January 2015 18:48:11


 


Didnt you say a while back that you only bothered to read the posts of a select few of your favourite people.


Anyway,  at least ECM keeps it cold zonal. Fine for the north. Too warm down here


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I don't necessarily agree with that, it wouldn't take much tweeking  at all for it to be good for the South as well! And as for Tuesday/Wednesday there could be snow for a large chunk of the country including some in the south!

Rob K
16 January 2015 18:56:28
ECM doesn't have uppers below -6C for any of the country apart from northern Scotland after Tuesday. (96 hours)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
16 January 2015 18:57:07

Beast, if you have any comment to make about anything that Matty or any other member of admin & mods has said here, please PM one of us instead of using this thread for your comments.


On topic, and to my untrained eye it doesn't look as if the current cold conditions will give up that easily if the model runs are to be believed. Not a major cold spell, but rather colder for sure than we've seen in the first 5-6 weeks of the winter. There do seem to be some indications of a scandi/siberian high possibly coming into play. That is another part of the puzzle that could cause the models some difficulties in the days ahead.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Frostbite80
16 January 2015 18:58:21

ECM doesn't have uppers below -6C for any of the country apart from northern Scotland after Tuesday. (96 hours)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

agreed but as is always said uppers arnt everything when it comes to snowfall, and by Tuesday there will be a lot of surface cold already in place 

Gooner
16 January 2015 19:01:11


I don't necessarily agree with that, it wouldn't take much tweeking  at all for it to be good for the South as well! And as for Tuesday/Wednesday there could be snow for a large chunk of the country including some in the south!


Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 


I agree with that.


I think the Banter has been quite good in here and extremely well marshalled by the hierarchy .


Just normal differences of opinion, the balance in TWO is always very good

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


moomin75
16 January 2015 19:08:53
Even BBC weather H Willetts at 6.57 now say the risk of snow has significantly lessened now. I'm sorry all but there is no doubt that all the models HAVE backed down compared with what was being shown just 2 days ago.
Almost always happens but there seems to be many in denial.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Frostbite80
16 January 2015 19:16:00

Even BBC weather H Willetts at 6.57 now say the risk of snow has significantly lessened now. I'm sorry all but there is no doubt that all the models HAVE backed down compared with what was being shown just 2 days ago.
Almost always happens but there seems to be many in denial.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

moomin you know that will be based on old data there has been a marked change in output since then! We won't know anything for sure until Sunday the earliest!

Brian Gaze
16 January 2015 19:17:13

ECM doesn't have uppers below -6C for any of the country apart from northern Scotland after Tuesday. (96 hours)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


From a wintry point of view in the south I'm not keen on the ECM run at all. It bears a lot of the hallmarks of winter to date with the bores high pressure keeping things under control. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Frostbite80
16 January 2015 19:20:02


 


From a wintry point of view in the south I'm not keen on the ECM run at all. It bears a lot of the hallmarks of winter to date with the bores high pressure keeping things under control. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

maybe in the mid/long term but there could be fun and games before then! Am I the only one that can see a potentially wintry 5 to 8 days coming up nationwide? 

bledur
16 January 2015 19:20:23

Fairly good ensemble agreement .


 Slideshow image.Slideshow image

llamedos
16 January 2015 19:21:47

Even BBC weather H Willetts at 6.57 now say the risk of snow has significantly lessened now. I'm sorry all but there is no doubt that all the models HAVE backed down compared with what was being shown just 2 days ago.
Almost always happens but there seems to be many in denial.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I wasn't aware that she was a font of all knowledge but whatever floats your boat. The models are showing different outcomes for snow risk, but certainly not backing down with regards a decent spell of cold weather for a few days.

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Frostbite80
16 January 2015 19:25:42
Yesterday the slider was to far west for most to see anything today it's to Far East, IMO look for something in the middle and if so that would be good news all round!
hobensotwo
16 January 2015 19:47:43
Just a quick question for you clever folks.
What does the 850 temp relate to at the surface?

Is it as simple as just say +10 or are there lots more factors to take into account?

Apologies if off topic.

Thanks
Brendon Hills Bandit
16 January 2015 20:06:38
Well I spose the thing is, even two days ago the cold spell looked a bit 'shaky', and also a little half-arsed, personally I wasn't expecting that much winter greatness. I think that there will be other, better opportunities, later on.

Still, I'm very happy that this winter is already better than last.
220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills
nsrobins
16 January 2015 20:08:53

Just a quick question for you clever folks.
What does the 850 temp relate to at the surface?

Is it as simple as just say +10 or are there lots more factors to take into account?

Apologies if off topic.

Thanks

Originally Posted by: hobensotwo 


It's more related to the topic than many of the posts in here today


As GTW says the 850s are the temperatures at 850mb pressure which equates to about 1km in height. We use them as a rough guide to ppn type in winter and as a rule in an easterly the surface will be about 10deg higher than the 850 temp but it varies. The 'Holy Grail' in an easterly flow would be 850s lower than -10 as you can pretty much guarantee anything falling will be snow.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
The Beast from the East
16 January 2015 20:11:40

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015011612/gem-0-240.png?12


GEM is not a bad run. A brief easterly at 144 and then better chance of a second bite. Hopefully some EC members will show an undercut as well


9 out of the 20 GFS perturbations have an easterly. The odds are still for a return of the Atlantic, but we are still in with an outside chance of a prolonged cold spell


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
hobensotwo
16 January 2015 20:26:31


 


It's more related to the topic than many of the posts in here today


As GTW says the 850s are the temperatures at 850mb pressure which equates to about 1km in height. We use them as a rough guide to ppn type in winter and as a rule in an easterly the surface will be about 10deg higher than the 850 temp but it varies. The 'Holy Grail' in an easterly flow would be 850s lower than -10 as you can pretty much guarantee anything falling will be snow.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Thanks for the info.

nsrobins
16 January 2015 21:06:32
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmm-1-39-0.png?20-20 
NMM also not too keen on the Northward extent of the ppn early Sunday, although what falls may well be sleet or snow and on to frozen ground.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
nsrobins
16 January 2015 21:34:53

From IF on the dark side (21.20):

MOGREPS has wide areal spread of possible snow risk outcomes by Tues, with this manifested across various regions to differing degrees. But we can't be deterministic for now. Worth adding that initial UKMO-GM forecast tephis show that even where rain likely outcome (at least initially, e.g. Bristol), this could fall onto frozen surfaces. Thus, a raft of forecast issues/likely warnable hazards to occupy us nearer the time


I've highlighted the important bit

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
llamedos
16 January 2015 21:39:12


From IF on the dark side (21.20):

MOGREPS has wide areal spread of possible snow risk outcomes by Tues, with this manifested across various regions to differing degrees. But we can't be deterministic for now. Worth adding that initial UKMO-GM forecast tephis show that even where rain likely outcome (at least initially, e.g. Bristol), this could fall onto frozen surfaces. Thus, a raft of forecast issues/likely warnable hazards to occupy us nearer the time


I've highlighted the important bit


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Well that's made things a lot clearer.

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Andy Woodcock
16 January 2015 21:44:21

Forget all the model watching Boll*cks, I have just watched Helen on the Beeb extended forecast and she says cold for the foreseeable future.


That's good enough for me and she even said it will be cold, cloudy easterlies by next weekend.


If you like mild you will have to wait till February.


Andy

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
warrenb
16 January 2015 22:01:20
Looking at the models the last couple of runs it wouldn't surprise me if we got a surprise Scandi out of this.
Tonbridge 45m 

Remove ads from site

Ads