Yes, in terms of 850s that chart is actually colder than yesterday's even down here. ~526dam TT for London.

They are not "awful" and confirm the cold to very cold (in places) outlook highlighted by today's Met Office outlook.

Yes there are signs of it turning less cold in a week or so but that is by no means certain and certainly not shown with any consistency in the models. It may look a little less prolonged than a day or two ago but I have not seen the ensemble data yet (as they are not out).

Yes indeed a snow fest of a 5 day chart for the eastern side of UK. day 6 looks to be setting up an easterly as well

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

 The only thing the word 'awful' should be applied to is some of the commentary in this thread. For days parameters have been marginal with a better chance of sleet or snow farther north (I live in the south in case anyone wasn't sure). This remains the case and the GFS and UKM are op runs are only offering variations which have been shown by the ENS in the last few days. Some people do need to chill out or perhaps try and find something to interest them other than just the prospect of a few cms of snow. 

I agree completely SC. The exact track that the first "slider" low takes next week will IMHO be fundamental in determining what transpires after that. Until that is properly resolved, there is little point in putting a lot of faith in charts shown for beyond next week as far as I'm concerned.

Close to a foot for the spine of the country 

http://www1.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/126_35.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

GEM output at 144h has Scandi HP furrher west and holds on  a bit longer>matches METO medium term forecast reasonably well.

Im looking at that T+120 ukmo chart thinking it looks pretty good for here providing no warm air gets mixed in

As usual to much north, south bias

I have officially given up on analysing anything beyond about 48 hours for the time being; the variability for next week is just insane - the disintegration of the low to our NW days 3-4 is seemingly beyond reliable modelling even at such short range.

As for within 48 hours, GFS remains totally uninspiring here, and brings only a dusting of snow for most of those places that do have the favourable parameters for snow. A few notable exceptions though - most notably across the far NW of England where heavy snow showers appear probable away from the coasts themselves, thanks to convection over the Irish Sea driven by the strong drop in temperature with altitude.

Early hours of Sunday, some kind of convergence line may also give NE Scotland a fair bit more snow on top of what's already there.

Euro4's 06z run showed a bit more promise further south later tonight, with an area of precipitation across the SW being shown as a rain/snow mix. Perhaps a bit of falling snow to wake up to for those who get lucky - right on the edge between rain and snow so no guarantees. It appears dependent on heavy bursts of precipitation, similar to early Wednesday but with the parameters just a little more favourable.

Meanwhile the snow showers for the NW of England are shown to make further progress inland than GFS has gone for, the extent across Northern England largely controlled by high terrain it seems:

Looking 24 hours further ahead, the potential precipitation for the south does turn up, but is only shown to be rain out to 6am despite the air being subzero very close to the ground (950hPa temps -1 to -2*C), dew points close to zero, 2m temps of 1*C away from the coasts and a low level flow from the colder north (albeit weak). Seems harsh to call it rain from those parameters.

The 12z run is awaited with a bit of interest.

Actually N England may do very well on Sunday themselves with a little feature dropping South.

A bias north for me, but maybe not biased enough for you perhaps.

I too like the UKMO evolution and it does seem that Tuesday/Wednesday's snow has been upgraded with a deeper low sliding South.

Sliding lows can bring a great deal of snow for many parts of the UK as we experienced 3 or 4 years ago and I am sure the Northern contingent are especially happy with the output so far.

The return of less cold zonality as shown by the GFS may be a little premature.

All eyes now on the ECM and plenty of model watching over the weekend.

The next 5/6 days

Everywhere should feel

Most places will get some   and some

Fewer places including the Southernmost counties - including Portsmouth!!!

Agreed A look through through the GEFS at 144 hours the range of solutions is probably the maximum I've ever known.

It is simply to early to call the end before the beginning and too early to give much detail before 48 hours

The 12Z  Euro4 has the rain band on Sunday further south, so it misses the UK almost entirely. 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/16/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012106_2_1612.gif 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/16/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012112_2_1612.gif 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/16/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012118_2_1612.gif 

Indeed it is for those North of the M4

JFF of course

I'm watching. 

To be fair I think most of the knee-jerk comments have come from Beast, and most people have rightly ignored it. 

Saint and one or two others make extremely valid and accurate points about what current Synoptics are compared with a few days ago, yet get shot down. The "let's wait and see what happens" view is fine, but this is the model output discussion.

There have been several off topic or plain stupid posts over the last few days. We are keeping an eye on things. 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/16/basis12/ukuk/prty/15011706_1612.gif

E4 shows a wintry band moving SE in the early hours

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/16/basis12/ukuk/prty/15011712_1612.gif

Moving away later

Would be nice to see a second slider on ECM but I think the Azores high is going to get in the way.......again!

edit- I was wrong there she goes...........however the uppers are very borderline so many would see rain but time for change

Didnt you say a while back that you only bothered to read the posts of a select few of your favourite people.

Anyway,  at least ECM keeps it cold zonal. Fine for the north. Too warm down here