Am I the first to comment on the 18Z or has everyone else been banned?

We see another variation now with Tuesday's sliding energy staying further West. A more robust effort then arrives Wednesday and I wouldn't assume anything about it's path or extent. Does anyone have a Scooby?

Well it looks like the GFS has been dragged kicking and screaming towards the UKMO and ECM. Good agreement now. Day 5: spot the difference

GFS: http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2564/gfs-0-114_hcv9.png

ECM: http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2749/ECM1-120_bdc9.GIF

UKMO http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1395/UW120-21_bjj2.GIF

My take on the 18z is a band of rain, sleet and snow spreads eastwards mid-week then a westerly flow of sorts resumes. The ENS have been favouring  a more mobile pattern w/b 26/01, but the 18z is turbocharging its return.  

It looks like a potential return to the n/westerly PM type flow we seem to have defaulted to so far this year , 18z and the cold snap is all but over by Weds .. One run but follows the trend

still a chance for some places to see more snow in the coming days 

Are you predicting another sharp turnaround in the NWP? What is your reasoning?

Place's that have all ready seen a bit of snow seem most at risk over the coming few days. For most the snow chance's get worse each run so a few cold days with some frost then back to this winters default pattern is more likely this evening

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011618/gfsnh-0-162.png?18

A distinct correction West on tonight's 120hr fax when compared with the raw data of the earlier 12z.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

Apologies guys. I've quoted last nights by mistake as timeline had updated but chart hasn't. New one is much like the raw data with the front having cleared the East coast.

Doesn't really tie in with the Willets forecast.

Don't shoot me but despite the uncertainties in the short term there's been good agreement recently on the further outlook. ECM, GEM ens and NAEFS anomalies singing from the hymn sheet day 10 - strong westerlies and well organised vortex to the NW. Looks a fairly strong signal.

Anomalies:

ECM: http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8332/EDM101-240_xiy0.GIF

GEM: http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7209/gens-21-3-240_dgk3.png

NAEFS: http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1281/naefs-0-0-240_ole7.png

 ECM mean day 10, the vortex to the NW looks fairly rampant.

In my opinion, I doubt there'll be a cold spell of note for Jan now but we'll see.

There are tentative signs of another minor strat warming at 5hPa above Eastern Siberia in about 10 days time. This may, if other factors provide support, deliver some snow over Sheffield before the end of February.

I'll get me coat and sledge - I'm taking it back to B&Q in the morning

Mods you will be absolutely justified to remove this totally irrelevant post - I thought I'd inject a bit of fun just in case there was anyone still around.

within the realms of model watching, broadly disappointed today. It looked for about 4-5 days beforehand that we were about to some kind of limited but entrenched cold across the UK, with the added uncertain possibility of an Easterly afterwards. With both now gone, it has been quite a turn around. Still, that is precisely what you can expect for an Island on the North West flank of a warm ocean with only limited cold air on the near continent. Still, only a day over half way through the winter so plenty more to chew on between now and Easter time! I wonder how long before we see another prolonged cold spell. It's only at times like these when we understand the difficulty in establishing real cold over the UK that your realise how unusual it was to have Feb '09, Jan '10, Dec '10 and March '13 packed so tightly together. I doubt we'll see a sequence like that for some time, but that's not to say there won't be lots of cold and snow to be had in the interim!

Yes all very odd as the 21:55 showed the LP sinking South and blue arrows in from Europe?? ( end of the week )

" cloudy and cold" said our friend Helen

Some will recognise this.

It was a new day yesterday, but it's an old day now.

C ya'll tomo.....edit....in the morning.....whats in store.....will it have snowed?

From 3:00mins - colder easterlies forecasted here yet the models show a return to zonal from midweek!?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30842988

The graphics might be a few hours out of date.

A rather uninspiring forecast from Matt just now IMY (rain showers, rain near coast Sunday, etc etc), but again what was interesting and why it is in here is when questioned by Naga Munchsettee about next week he said 'Easterly winds bringing even colder weather our way - we'll keep a close eye on it'.

Note this was live not recorded. So, where are they getting this from? Most output continues to develop a westerly pattern later next week. Answers on a postcard.

Well I'll give you 10 out of 10 for patience/optimism - in terms of upgrades. However, I see no signs of an easterly on the latest ECM. Indeed, it defaults to the FFS 'westerly' solution by day 10.