Admittedly I am a novice at reading the charts, however a number of posters who are infinetly more informed than myself have stated for days that details are hard if not impossible to pin down currently. The overall pattern outcome, snow distribution and snow amounts remain uncertain. No amount of focus upon individual runs will result in the outcome being realised just now, FI is not in the far reaches of 200+ at the moment but much closer to hand. Until the short term is resolved it is futile trying to determine the mid/long term picture. Attempting to do so will only cause needless stress.

Yes I do understand it is the model output thread! I would suggest as an onlooker though that more attention being focussed upon the short term charts and synoptics could be useful. There has been more snow here at 13ASL on the western fringe of central Scotland than there has been for 2 years. Rather than look ahead with trepidation I have enjoyed reading the discussions here but have tried to enjoy the moment and realise it may or may not be short lived. Sure that may be a bit IMBYish but there should be some cold and possibly snow in many places in the UK over the next few days, enjoy the fact that there are options on the table and the westerly hair dryer is not guarenteed to continually blast us for weeks on end.

Not saying that we are, but for all we know we could be set for a memorable spell of weather which would be lost on many cold/snow fans who are looking for cross model agreement on -10C uppers and an easterly feed when even if that was the eventual mid/longer term outcome, it will not be shown on the models until the current turbulent synoptics have been resolved.

I for one am happy that it is colder than average, should be colder than average for a few days, and there is tons of potential for things to be markedly better than that!

People here are making a big mistake by looking at charts after 120 hours and missing what is actually occuring in the 36-48 hour timeframe. The 6z GFS yet again has upgraded the cold pool that will be resident over the UK by Monday. 850Hpa's are now generally -7c to -9c compared with a general -6c to -7c yesterday.

The first disruption on Tuesday will wish to take the path of least resistance if the trend continues to upgrade the cold pool.

The path of least resistance will be to the west of the cold pool. Should it take this route we change the dynamics..we maintain the cold pool making further atlantic pushes more difficult. 

The signal for heights to the NE remains throughout, waiting to pounce. A change in the dynamics as early as Monday may well carve the way to a more defined easterly in the second half of the week.

FWIW the 15 day EPS largely maintain the cold until next Sunday.

This one is for tomorrow morning for all Chilternites (obviously including Grand Master BG)

I'm sorry but it's not looking all that cold down here. Monday is forecasted to be the coldest of the next 5 days with a maximum of just 3C, however that will be in a northerly with sunshine so I can straight away add an extra 3 onto that. 

In reality the coldest days over the next 5 days will be around 6C mark.. In mid January that is just a 'chilly' spell! Certainly not cold.

You are the fortunate one Jacko, since with our climate, upgrades in your favour are 95% more likely than upgrades in our direction. You are like one of those Manchester United supporters who only chose the team because it used to win more often than not.  :-)

Good read from Gusty and I hope to see some action while I am off from work next week until Thursday.

Thanks Steve for the detail and in an attempt to add width to the debate I've had more of a trawl.
The GEM control is very cold +120 with an easterly, and the 00Z ECM ENS show the OP and especially control were big mild outliers.

There is an easterly in there somewhere, it just hasn't appeared yet mainstream?

Edit: 06Z GFS OP again not in the mood and westerlies return from Friday.

Obviously this is not a cold spell, why according to the MetO the temperature in Kingussie, for example, might actually just nudge up to near freezing briefly at some point in the next 5 days ......     

Obviously Kingussie is not the whole of Britain.  But it's as much of Britain as Portsmouth

On that topic I notice that the "raw" Met Office forecast for Braemar, based directly on automated data from their model output as far as I am aware, shows a high on Monday of -5°C.

Sizzle you do realise that there is a week between now and one week's time? 

Good stuff Neil..here to help and all that.

Stop at 120 hours..you won't be disappointed (easier said than done of course) 

Yes, first settling covering of snow in High Wycombe today, makes this winter already miles better than last year ☺ looking at the output still several more chances of snow for some in the next 6/7 days. But there is huge uncertainty of where and when any snow falls and how long the colder spell will last. The form horse would be for the Atlantic to take over after this period, however some of the output is showing height rises to the north east that COULD prelong the colder spell or even reinforce it. Really interesting weather watching😊

tho  after next weekend is still open to question

I've noticed GFS still trending with the idea of regular ridging off to our south in the low res-end of the output. If that does true then that'll effectively push the storm conveyor belt to the north like it did earlier on this month - and yes, I do think the Atlantic will push through by the end of the week/weekend no matter what - actually, right now it is still trying to push through anyway, when you think about it! 
  I'll take that. With daylight starting to accelerate in length along with the mid-day sun creeping that little bit higher above the horizon, I can almost feel the warmth of the sun on my nose already. I remember back in my tomato greenhouse days, I was able to feel the effects of the midday sun by the middle of February where it was strong enough to make me really soak my t-shirt through sweating buckets.
  Until then, indeed, I can see that there are some "potential" for us at for this neck of the woods to see the white stuff at some point or other in the first half of next week, even if it is all down to pure luck rather than as a proper nailed on event (like January '87 which I recall was well forecasted days beforehand).

You can tell I am having mixed feelings about it all, on the one hand I would love to see a good dollop of snow, but on the other hand I'm looking forward to cheaper heating bills. Still, at least this winter isn't being as vile as the last one.

Sorry for taking this thread off on a tangent. Again.

Not quite as impressive IMBY, but still you'd think nailed on...

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=53.36599249588816&lon=-2.788679014961673

06h GEFS seems to hesitate a little in bringing in full Atlantic westerlies.At 120h its 35% of ens, at,144h 55%,168h 40%,192 40%.Roughly 45% Ens have Scandi influence at 120h and 144h  the figure is around 35% out to 192h.Perturbation 19 is worth following.

LOL MM I should point out that I am sadly a Forest fan!! I suppose you can't disappoint a pessimist. Looking at current output I can see how many coldies are seriously disappointed with the current trend. HOWEVER trough disruption is very difficult to handle even only a few hours out-  so a few twists and turns left yet

Yes indeed. I'd better stop waffling about regional variations otherwise I might attract the likes of Joe into the debate.

LOL jacko4ever. Flicking through the models on my PC this morning shows cold is here to stay for the next week with lots potential for cold weather fans. I was in Reigate this morning and snow was falling but not settling. Plenty of potential into mid week and I am sure your area is highly favoured to see some snow if not already. Meto update supports my view as we go into end of January and February. 

Good try.

I see the Punch and Judy show continues this morning. The cold spell is a very British affair. Nothing more, nothing less. Not in the league of 2009/10 and 2011 at this point, but things may change. On the other hand it's quite a lot more potent than many of the cold snaps we saw during the winters between the late 1980s and 2008.   

Battleground UK. Love it whatever happens. My take is that Scandi looks ready to pounce if trough disruption migrates further West on Monday. This is the key to prolonged cold and will divert the renewed jet southwards. This is on a knife edge but how many bet on a favorite and how many on an outsider at the races.

We could have a bonus snowfall over the Chilts tomorrow making 2 falls in two days. Being totally accurate it would be 3 in 3 days as it was snowing in the Chilts early Friday morning before turning to rain.

wintry mix tomorrow for some ??

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/17/basis06/ukuk/prty/15011806_1706.gif