Clutching at straws maybe, but there are half a dozen decent (if not especially cold) easterlies on the 12z GFS ensembles in the T228 period! I can't recall seeing those in the 06z ensembles?

GEFS PERTUBATION ALERT - there's about 5 of these out of 20 (25%) here's #17 @168:

and here's the slp spread at 126 on the 12 z GEFS:

To Scandi or not to Scandi? That is the question.

Thoughts on the 96 hour ECM?

Why cant this next low slide as well?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011712/ECH1-120.GIF?17-0

By 120 we have an easterly of sorts

Given the massive uncertainty even by this point, this is as far as you should look.

at least its better than UKMO

I'm sure that some people said the same about the eye candy that was appearing on the model runs in early December 2009, late November 2010 and then at various times in early 2013 to name a few recent occasions. One just never knows.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011712/ECH1-144.GIF?17-0

There is some disruption and some energy going under. Block is not dead yet

People should focus on the low near Newfoundland, not the one hitting us, it is the rapid cyclogenesis of that which disrupts the amplificaton and plunges us back into a westerly. It really doesn't matter what the other low does.

You can invoke the dead parrot sketch by T+192 though.

The GFS control is rather interesting

When you look at the ensembles , gfs and ecmwf , i dont think they ever showed it very cold so snow was always to be marginal in this colder spell for lowland england. Of course parts of Scotland are doing very well for snowfall as they did last year.

While the models are not showing a "holy grail" type cold spell anytime soon, the runs we have at the moment are no worse tha  the vast majority of runs we saw for a long while up until as week or so ago. There were some people in this thread who seemed to be ready to write off the rest of January for any chance of cold and snow during the opening days of this month in the face of what seemed like pretty poor model output at the time. This colder spell has taken me by surprise somewhat in view of the sort of runs we were getting around New Year.

As others have said, I think that FI starts pretty early just now, and we shouldn't put a great amount of faith in output shown for later next week and beyond that.

The WRF and Euro4 are going for quite a bit of snow in the NE tommorow, which could even start to lie in the late afternoon. Think this one is worth watching, perhaps a yellow warning later?

No point looking too far ahead in this setup as there is a huge amount of uncertainty. There is plenty of interest across most of the UK over the course of the next 24 hours.

A fair bit of snow to come for many northern areas in the next 24 hours if the ultra high res WRF-NMM model is to be believed.

A significant band of snow moving south across Scotland overnight gradually weakening as it does so

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-11-3.png?17-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-13-3.png?17-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-16-3.png?17-17

Snow showers tomorrow morning become more significant during the afternoon especially in the east

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-28-3.png?17-18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-30-3.png?17-18

Further south the band of snow reaches Cumbria and Northumberland by breakfast time. However the precipitation largely peters out by the time it reaches the Midlands - although Snowdonia could see some a fair bit of snow.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-19-2.png?17-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-22-2.png?17-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-24-2.png?17-18

Snow showers come into the NE of England off the North Sea later in the afternoon

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-28-2.png?17-18

Further south still an area of more organised showers moves gradually south-east from South Wales across southern England. A mixture of rain / sleet and snow with most of the snow over high ground. A risk of some very heavy rain near the coasts of East Sussex and Kent.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-10-1.png?17-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-14-1.png?17-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-17-1.png?17-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-19-1.png?17-17

Great, more rain. I've already had enough of the bloody stuff. Good job Folkestone isn't prone to flooding.

At +132 the Scandy ridge I concede is more influencial on this run keeping the cold in place - just - until Friday morning.

Fancy an Icelandic Chinese @ 132?  All grist to the model mill

...and GFS has the easterly still there at the gates of FI:(Saturday)or a week away:

Subtle changes initially but by T174 the Scandi, whilst clearly weakening, is holding considerably better than it did on the 12z. A few more runs building on this scenario just could prolong this cold spell for another two or three days and who knows what that could lead to. I'll be watching the 18z ensembles with interest! 

These charts will be different at t0 and it could be a hell of a lot better, or a hell of a lot worse.  Some people think they know, but they don't, no one does.  That's the beauty of it

CMA is the new NOGAPS

It spotted the current spell before any other model, when they were flat zonal.

Temp on the 12z was showing 11c for here next Sunday, now the latest shows 3c. The high out East is stronger and more West and meeting the jet head on.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17414.gif

I also think FI is half way along the reliable frame as some others have already mentioned.