Gusty and Whether Idle say "Keep Calm and Carry on Model Watching!

(Well, it is the model output thread afterall)

Indeed and good advice - I'd better take it myself!
The 06Z E4 now says there is diddly squat chance of seeing anything wintry from the Sun am feature here as parameters are several clicks the wrong side for snowfall - shame, it was looking good a few days ago. Of more interest is the NW with a feature developing at the same time then we have a disturbance early Monday in E Scotland that might deliver for the Aberdeen posse.

I'm not making any more statements about next week until I see whether the UKMet in Exeter have a crystal ball that works magic against the majority of the NWP or not and that we won't know for a few days yet.

Or 87,91,94,95,96,08,... Plus all the other cold snaps we've had. 

For myself I have been more than happy with the current weather conditions, so much better than last year by a country mile!!! & the current output doesn't look all that shabby either, we get what we get!

Lol! I'm not 'bigging it up', but equally I'm not throwing it overboard. Does no one here do anything other than black and white these days? 

It's a million times better here than that 'other place' Brian.

I popped my head in there for the first time in a couple of years earlier on..its a ghastly place .

Shame that cant apply to marriage. Trade in for younger model every 7 years or so

 I won't say a word (just in case she's watching).

its often hard to tell in here I find.

E4 showing a band of PPN moving south down the country tomorrow. S Scotland & the far N of England (Cumbria/Northumberland/Tyne & Wear/Durham/poss N Yorks) is showing as getting a decent period of snow.

However, it dissipates all the while and so, by the time it reaches the main North of England conurbations of Merseyside/Manchester/W&S Yorks, E4 shows it as rain away from Pennine areas.

GFS has the feature, too - although located more to the east.

Still, I'll keep my fingers firmly crossed for an upgrade in the cold/intensity. Cos I'm a sucker

I know what you mean.

I've just started getting into this Internet stuff and I had no idea how difficult predicting the weather is.

We can put a man on the moon, but forecast the weather in this country beyond 120 hours good luck!

Something of a small disturbance to keep an eye on for the SE tomorrow night. 

For +96 hours (or 108 in the case of GME):

UKMO not interested in the trough diving south. Weak attempt at an extension SE quickly lifts out by +120 with a rapid return to westerlies. Very fast upstream progression (across U.S.) could be the main cause of this.

Trough dropping nicely south on GFS with some snow around for many. Jet stream continues to power SE across the UK out to day 6 yet Atlantic lows just power on to the NE... what's that about?

Trough extension SE offered by GME with an interesting development in the North Sea. Marginal conditions as usual. Atlantic lows then push SE through the UK for +132 hours. This is the only solution that seems to make much sense to me based on the setup of the jet stream.

Overall, about as inconclusive as it gets for just four days range! I'm hoping UKMO is being too fast with the U.S. low (plays on my mind thanks to that NOAA update some time last week which said the model had a tendency to move them through too quickly). GFS works out better with the sliding low thanks to a slower low, and has trended less fast since this morning. Yet still the next Atlantic system heads stubbornly NE despite some 95% of the jet energy heading SE, under the block over Scandi. I really don't get that.

Come on GME, show them what your made of! 

The 06z ens suite did have some members diving this system as welll. If there are still some  on the 12z suite then perhaps I'll hold off throwing in the towel until tomorrow

Extremely disappointing UKMO this evening.

Energy is forced on a ESE track meaning that disruption takes place to our north east. The door will no doubt open soon after for atlantic influences.

Hi res DWD

Disappointing Steve but not surprising.
Of course I'll keep a watching brief on things, but if the NWP does this again and dangles the prospect of -12 uppers and lowland Southern snow in front of us again (and there were -12 uppers flirting with the east in two successive runs on Tuesday before anyone asks), I will not engage in it in any way whatsoever until it is +72 or nearer.

Could it be that trough disruption triggered by cold pools can only be modelled accurately with high resolution... just a thought.

The end of the cold spell is not caused by the trough's behaviour this week, but by the increasing activity of the Atlantic. Specifically the cyclogensis that occurs at 150hr onwards, very few of the EPS ever went for a Easterly, that was always a bonus, but as for keeping it cold, that only becomes difficult when that LP is exploded by the jet stream. If things can go wrong at 120hr, then they can go right at 150hr.

Yes, the main problem going forward from the this potential sliding low is how the upstream flow unfolds.

Conditions across the Pacific/U.S. will be important, and currently there is huge uncertainty there being driven by a wide array of often conflicting signals regarding any influence from tropical developments. For example, the GFS op (and some of GEFS) has a rapidly amplifying MJO in phase 8 which promotes a Euro High, yet ECM has it looking to resurface (after a long time of little or no activity) all the way over in phase 4... pretty much the other side of the hemisphere! UKMO has it hanging around at very low amplification with no apparent desire to go anywhere much.

That's not the whole story either - very rapid and strong changes in the global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) are expected to occur, which usually causes chaotic model output as we are seeing now. As for what GLAAM is... I'm still getting my head around some of the details but it affects the amount of westerly momentum in the atmosphere and also the extent to which the jet is steady or disrupted. GLAAM is expected to plummet, which should take a lot of westerly momentum away... but where will the major ridges and troughs be when that happens? You can see how the GFS op favours a Euro High as a result of it's MJO projection, but with the models showing a minimal MJO there isn't much of a signal to work with from there... which further encourages a lack of consistency in their output.

Until these issues are sorted out, the output beyond about 3 days has as much weight and solid ground to stand on as a house of feathers on a bed of clouds.

Why do we always get suckered by eye candy?  Never believe it even at t+96 with cross model support!