Not much to say about the 12z - as everyone is saying rather uninspiring. However - a few points of interest are starting to emerge. The most interesting of which is the trend for LPs to want to dive towards Europe. Always aa good thing. However this has been blocked most of the early winter where we sw cold plunges blocked and diverted towards Scandi by that really stubborn Euro HP.

If we do get a Plunge of cold air - which not just the UK but Europe needs to get colder, we have a greater chance of the cold taking hold, rather than disapating as it arrives over scotland.

We need to reset this dreadful synoptic setup at the moment though, alot of people are still talking about potential in the current setup, but speaking personally, looking at the current conditions, and looking at the ever shifting towards a less cold synoptics for the next few days. We really need to reset and start again IMO. Current setup is dreadful icy and wet. Not a good combo. 😞

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I see that Russ wins the prize for the first call for a 'reset'

 

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i know i know 😞 im usually the first to facepalm when i see people reaching for this phrase.  I really think the current synoptics really have no purpose.. its all going stagnant with no significant air type/mass being drawn into the mix.   

 

If people arent onboard with this feeling now, they will be in a few days time, when they realise how boring very cold drizzle is, and how much they miss sunshine as its looking like quite a cloudy gloomy week too.

 

Just realised how depressing im sounding - apols 

 

 

 

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Im not saying you are wrong, I wouldn't have a clue.

Who knows if it even does anything to our weather

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http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/18/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012200_2_1812.gif 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/18/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012206_2_1812.gif 

Snow for the South as hinted at by N Miller

J F F of course

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I wonder what the verification stats for these diagrams would look like? Not very impressive would be my guess.

J F F = Just For Frustration.

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My experience today shows they are about as much use as a chocolate teapot. Still JFF sums them up nicely, however you translate the acronym. 

12 GFS is now showing cold rain for my locality on Tuesday, whereas previous runs had shown decent snowfall - I guess the model is being more realistic now - cold zonality just ain't up to the job, except for true upland areas - those of us not living in the Welsh or Scottish mountains or the Peak District or possibly the Staffordshire moorlands, just get cold rain, which is just about the worst sort of weather imaginable!

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It's currently shown as light and patchy stuff anyway. To be honest I'd rather it didn't bother at all unless enough is going to fall to cause trouble. 

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A very uninspiring cold spell and surface temps higher than predicted for here. There is no cold pool to our east and the northerly incursion less cold than expected for the south.

Still a chance of snow and hopefully we will have a few more sunny days. This weekend has felt quite warm in the midday sun.

 

In the current setup,  I'll believe it when I see it.

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fergie said over NW -  No warnings have been issued *because areal (and accumulation) continuity has been totally lacking*. Now we are seeing that manifesting in UKV/UKPP and other output, you can expect Ops Centre to progress things over next day or so. There's been no requirement for early knee-jerking, irrespective of whatever certain people, prone to hyperbole and specious 'analysis', feed the Daily Express

J F F S! would be closer to the mark  

I put them alongside the old BBC 5-dayers for level of usefulness...

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And I think it was James mentioned the other day the tendency to wring these things out as the time approaches. 

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Sometimes I wish Fergie would talk in plain English! Sorry Fergie!

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Eh?

 

 

 

 

 

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I think the situation is, don't expect significant snow, don't hope for it, but don't rule it out either.

 

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Same as every winter then. 

Lol Budz 

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'If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with BS'...

Period of heavy snow in parts of central / southern England on Wed shown on the GFS18z. 

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Patchy, localised and mainly light again. Just can't get an ounce of excitement about it, especially after the total over-calculation of the non-event earlier this week. 

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Good job you don't like snow then. Won't be long until the hot stifling days and nights are back you enjoy.

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?

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The UK - the Atlantic LP graveyard. Where weather fronts come to die...

Is basically the theme for this week.

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It's like the Three Kings, this weather, in the South of England.

Cold, Manky sh*te and Murr.

high res has very little snow Wednesday, GFS at the time had a .snowfest. You can see why the Meto aren't worried by it 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=66&mode=1&map=0

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