Northerlies are usually sunny & dry down south yes, warm no.

An excellent post from Steve on NW:

Hi Tamara - A nicely put post, however this winter thus far hasn't delivered ANY of the expectation laid out by the winter forecasts of indeed any of the hype / analysis presented in the stratosphere thread either-  A few flirts with a 2 wave pattern in December which didn't land either-

A lesson to everyone that the modelling of the stratosphere & even then the downwelling & coupling of Strat V trop doesn't always deliver.

Also I don't think barring maybe 1 or 2 runs that the GFS has modelled any Greenland heights this winter, its been 100% mobility all the way-

The OPI has been wrong & along with it Cohens forecast, (  & of course mine + NW & the idiot Madden who forecasts the same thing every winter )

A very muted signal for Northern blocking which may improve into Feb, although its not the favourite as it stands...

WRT Strat warming events, no point in getting up on this since only 2 out of 3 only affect wind flow at lower levels (according to the beeb anyway):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20992173

Warm, yes. Out of the wind, if there is any, we've had many northerlies here where you could sit outside comfortably. 

In winter?  with a sheepskin coat on?

...And they call us Southern softies  you fly the flag Matty 

Well I'm not putting much faith into the next cold spell that hasn't even arrived, after all the hype of the last one in the end I was just too low down to get anything significant to last on the ground.

However this time around it does look more potent for those of us that live below 1000 feet.

So did the last one, several days out

Not just in the SW. Saturday to Tuesday this week was decidedly warm in the sun despite a max of 3-4c

A changeable week coming up followed by the possibility of a chilly week but no great shakes - snow for sum up north with elevation.

As Quantum has already said we need a Scandi high to deliver anything worthwhile down in these parts unless it is a very potent northerly with the 510 thickness into Southern Scotland and yes - you've guessed it - that's on its way to Greece !

NASA GEO5 0z hi res experimental model running out now, its absolutely insane, Greenland high develops, but the frigid pure arctic air is maintained. Waiting to see how close the -15 line gets on a northerly!  

Could be one of the coldest northerlies I have ever seen if it doesn't get cut off, thickness record in a northerly could be threatened. 

Big Steve Murr tells it as it is regarding the multitude of teleconnections  over on NW.

Hi Tamara - A nicely put post, however this winter thus far hasn't delivered ANY of the expectation laid out by the winter forecasts of indeed any of the hype / analysis presented in the stratosphere thread either- A few flirts with a 2 wave pattern in December which didn't land either-
A lesson to everyone that the modelling of the stratosphere & even then the downwelling & coupling of Strat V trop doesn't always deliver.

Also I don't think barring maybe 1 or 2 runs that the GFS has modelled any Greenland heights this winter, its been 100% mobility all the way-

The OPI has been wrong & along with it Cohens forecast, ( & of course mine + NW & the idiot Madden who forecasts the same thing every winter )

A very muted signal for Northern blocking which may improve into Feb, although its not the favourite as it stands...

S

You can't really argue with any of that in what has been a pretty disappointing winter thus far.

The seasonal models, NAO signal and background seasonal fluctuations have been more useful than the strat etc. in forecasting this winter. I'll leave others to judge my forecast, but would say the MetO and those who've not relied on the latest fashions have performed quite well. This winter is only proving a 'shock' to those who relied on the OPI and Cohen etc. Those who used the former (or indeed on common sense of what a typical British winter is like) have managed to build a decent innings. Those who went down other routes saw their middle stump being knocked out of the ground early on.

The bit I have bolded is a little unfair - after all, to take a sporting analogy, betting that Chelsea will beat Sheffield United and getting it right 95% of the time, does not prove you are any good at predictions - getting it right on the rare occasion that Sheffield United wins is clever or lucky though.

So backing the form horse is easy - spotting when things are atypical is the hard part.

Just through looking at the charts and their evolution at face value this winter, you can see there is little or no effort made by the Az H to shift up north, even when the odd ridge creeps down into Greenland from the Arctic Ocean. If we were in one of those winters with more aggressive northern blocking then I'd fully expect the current ECM 240hr chart to be the start of something significant, with a clear path towards the building of pressure to the north or NE: 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

As it stands I don't think anyone would make that call this winter, and would instead compare it with this time in 2003, which featured an impressive albeit short-lived toppler:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00120030130.gif

That said I've enjoyed the variety of weather this repeat pattern has brought so far, particularly the frequency of cool/cold maritime airstreams, and it looks like it will keep bringing plenty of excitement and frustration going into Feb and March! 

Since when was 3 degrees 'warm' in the UK? Even in February? "when north wind doth blow…" (you know the rest…)

To be fair Brian the OPI guys did not forecast a long  bitterly cold and hard winter for the UK, in terms of the actual weather I think you'll find that they forecast a winter in which colder arctic incursions would tend to increase in the latter two thirds of the winter.  Not a million miles away from the forecast made by someone on this site

Warm in the sun.

…for an ice cube 

Seriously though, with air temps of 3 degrees, add the windchill and any warmth from the sun is just a psychological affect.

I'm growing increasingly annoyed with the volume of off topic posts in here. I wish I had the time/inclination to put them in the right threads.

I enjoy a lot of the banter and I'm not knocking that, it just clogs up the thread. 

It's not rocket science guys......mainly Model Output Discussion in here makes for easier reading

For where? The -10C isotherm hasn't even made landfall in the UK.

You totally misunderstood my post. Tx

Wrong.  Try the Alps