I did put the OPI (well rapid increase in snow cover really) Into my winter forecast, but l'm  pleased I "off-set" it with the NAO, seasonal models and solar activity (all of which never looked great for this winter) 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Okay... a bit more cold air to work with down south on the latest runs, which is good, but not much to bring precipitation as things stand unless the air is cold enough to develop disturbances in the flow capable of hanging on all the way down across the UK. Still not ripe for a significant snow event, but better than nothing 

What actually catches my eye more are signs that this northerly is just a small part of something bigger. Admittedly there were similar hints being dropped prior to the cold spell we're moving out of now, but these were largely dependent on getting a second trough disruption event that in the end only materialised briefly in the output before vanishing again. We then saw the upstream pattern become mobile sooner than originally predicted, cutting the cold easterly down as well.

Anyway, this time it's largely down to developments in the stratosphere, with the vortex heavily displaced to Siberia right out to day 10, helping to focus the low heights in the troposphere to that region rather than across Canada.

This was brought about by a warming event that's currently focused across Canada. If only the stratosphere and troposphere were strongly connected over there - the Canadian vortex would be going AWOL very soon indeed.

As it is, that lobe does look like weakening gradually over the coming week or so, as that warming event attempts to propagate down toward the troposphere.

Meanwhile, a new warming event looks to emerge over East Asia/the Western Pacific, and this has been looking increasingly strong with each new set of model runs. It looks to be close enough to the displaced vortex to really interfere with it, the results of which are likely to be complicated - and not well handled by the models.

In light of this, any output showing the focus of low heights shifting back to our N or NW in the 10-15 day period, while possible, has a higher than normal chance of being total b*l**ks 

Realistically though, there's no ignoring the tendency so far this winter for low heights to find a way to hang on in some guise to our NW in the face of even quite substantial pressure.

Perhaps we will be relying on the primary (Siberian) vortex being displaced and weakened enough to allow some decent height rises across the pole, aligned in the right way to keep the remains of the Canadian vortex away from Greenland for as long as possible.

For this, the ECM 12z op run is a good effort 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Okay... a bit more cold air to work with down south on the latest runs, which is good, but not much to bring precipitation as things stand unless the air is cold enough to develop disturbances in the flow capable of hanging on all the way down across the UK. Still not ripe for a significant snow event, but better than nothing 

What actually catches my eye more are signs that this northerly is just a small part of something bigger. Admittedly there were similar hints being dropped prior to the cold spell we're moving out of now, but these were largely dependent on getting a second trough disruption event that in the end only materialised briefly in the output before vanishing again. We then saw the upstream pattern become mobile sooner than originally predicted, cutting the cold easterly down as well.

Anyway, this time it's largely down to developments in the stratosphere, with the vortex heavily displaced to Siberia right out to day 10, helping to focus the low heights in the troposphere to that region rather than across Canada.

This was brought about by a warming event that's currently focused across Canada. If only the stratosphere and troposphere were strongly connected over there - the Canadian vortex would be going AWOL very soon indeed.

As it is, that lobe does look like weakening gradually over the coming week or so, as that warming event attempts to propagate down toward the troposphere.

Meanwhile, a new warming event looks to emerge over East Asia/the Western Pacific, and this has been looking increasingly strong with each new set of model runs. It looks to be close enough to the displaced vortex to really interfere with it, the results of which are likely to be complicated - and not well handled by the models.

In light of this, any output showing the focus of low heights shifting back to our N or NW in the 10-15 day period, while possible, has a higher than normal chance of being total b*l**ks 

Realistically though, there's no ignoring the tendency so far this winter for low heights to find a way to hang on in some guise to our NW in the face of even quite substantial pressure.

Perhaps we will be relying on the primary (Siberian) vortex being displaced and weakened enough to allow some decent height rises across the pole, aligned in the right way to keep the remains of the Canadian vortex away from Greenland for as long as possible.

For this, the ECM 12z op run is a good effort 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I don't expect things to transpire this way but the 18z GFS op run is a fascinating evolution so far.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012318/gfsnh-0-240.png?18

It is indeed , blocking out West looks half  decent

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Certainly firming up on a chilly spell for the end of Jan/ beginning of Feb. The 18Z even gets in a brief cold feed to the south before the high collapses and sinks over the UK.

Looking good for powder fiends in the Alps next week though!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Apologies for coming across as negative but I really do think that the charts look better than what the actual weather will offer. With sunshine in the S, temps will easily reach 7-8c maxes next weekend in southern coastal locations. It all seems very diluted to me regarding next weekend.

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 

No need to apologise Mike. That's exactly the way I see it too. A standard winter NNW'ly 

There is some good potential for the usual suspects in the north. I'm looking forward to seeing Doc's road buried and tears of joy from Richardabdn 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

I must say that I concur with Neil. I am not convinced, despite all the pretty blues and purples, that what is currently shown in the charts is actually "cold enough". Yes it looks chilly but possibly just for the hills. Richardandn's tears may be of frustration rather than joy.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Doc: The man who remains optimistic when the outlook is pants, but is pessimistic when it actually looks "good for here" on his patch. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H