theweatheroutlook

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David M Porter
05 February 2015 17:29:10

Looks as though we're entering a period of pretty settled weather for a while. What happens after that is the question on our minds.


As always, on topic please- away you go!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
soperman
05 February 2015 17:48:23

The only interesting point I can muster is that Devon and Cornwall will feel particularly cold at least until the end of Feb if GFS is correct. Many Febs I have been wandering around the coastal path in a T Shirt!!


Nothing but bland cool weather otherwise and if it's a cloudy high, only limited frosts. Clear days and frosty nights will be good though.


I am afraid I am throwing in the towel.  Winter is Dead - Long live the Spring 

Gooner
05 February 2015 18:48:01

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020512/ECH1-192.GIF?05-0


So far

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
05 February 2015 18:53:19

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020512/ECH0-216.GIF?05-0


The cold flirts with the UK

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
05 February 2015 18:55:36

ECM and GEM both try and break the cycle


But a very tedious spell of model watching coming up. Come back in a week is my advice!


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
05 February 2015 19:01:44


Out to V Day and we are still on the rather chilly side

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


White Meadows
05 February 2015 19:21:10

Time for a break from this hobby for a while, output consistently looking stale & predictable for the foreseeable.

Maybe see you all next week!

idj20
05 February 2015 19:25:25

ECM showing a nice looking "Omega" type high post-Valentine's Day.



Much better than staring down the barrel of a viciously active jet stream, like this time last year. I think it will do us some good to have an extended spell of quiet weather in order to take stock of things . . . like getting to know your family.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Justin W
05 February 2015 19:50:06


ECM showing a nice looking "Omega" type high post-Valentine's Day.



Much better than staring down the barrel of a viciously active jet stream, like this time last year. I think it will do us some good to have an extended spell of quiet weather in order to take stock of things . . . like getting to know your family.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


Not a good move in my case, IDJ!


 


but agree it's looking half decent for a few days.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Quantum
05 February 2015 19:56:01

With the downgrade on the 12z suite I didn't expect the ECM to be that special, lets see what the 18zs have to offer. Still promising imho. 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Hungry Tiger
05 February 2015 20:02:22


ECM showing a nice looking "Omega" type high post-Valentine's Day.



Much better than staring down the barrel of a viciously active jet stream, like this time last year. I think it will do us some good to have an extended spell of quiet weather in order to take stock of things . . . like getting to know your family.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Excellent analogy there Ian :-)

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


nsrobins
05 February 2015 20:42:36

From Tamara on NW:


There should be no surprise if this signal contiunues to wax and wanes in intra day NWP but don't let that fool anyone. I would also ignore the fact that just a small percentage of post 10 day ensemble data reflects this signal..currently.   It is obscured by a rather obfuscated MJO signal - however, the MJO itself comprises a percentage of the AAM/GWO budget and it is this signal which will be a large decider in the behavioural direction of the MJO. 


No disrespect to Tamara or any other poster of her ilk, but that is techno-babble of the highest order. We're all free to say what we like, but it's no surprise that people are put-off when reading posts like that. I have a fairly reasonable understanding of meteorology, but sometimes the phrases and terms have to be adjusted to suit a wider audience or else you're leaving yourself open to criticism.


IMO of course.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Marigold
05 February 2015 20:44:34


From Tamara on NW:


There should be no surprise if this signal contiunues to wax and wanes in intra day NWP but don't let that fool anyone. I would also ignore the fact that just a small percentage of post 10 day ensemble data reflects this signal..currently.   It is obscured by a rather obfuscated MJO signal - however, the MJO itself comprises a percentage of the AAM/GWO budget and it is this signal which will be a large decider in the behavioural direction of the MJO. 


No disrespect to Tamara or any other poster of her ilk, but that is techno-babble of the highest order. We're all free to say what we like, but it's no surprise that people are put-off when reading posts like that. I have a fairly reasonable understanding of meteorology, but sometimes the phrases and terms have to be adjusted to suit a wider audience or else you're leaving yourself open to criticism.


IMO of course.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


You took the words out of my mouth Neil

Southern Yorkshire Dales











llamedos
05 February 2015 21:04:30

Having seen how many members are apparently "throwing the towel in", if they stick by their guns, it'll be interesting to see how long this thread lasts before it's in need of refreshing.    

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
blizzard of 78
05 February 2015 21:17:44


From Tamara on NW:


There should be no surprise if this signal contiunues to wax and wanes in intra day NWP but don't let that fool anyone. I would also ignore the fact that just a small percentage of post 10 day ensemble data reflects this signal..currently.   It is obscured by a rather obfuscated MJO signal - however, the MJO itself comprises a percentage of the AAM/GWO budget and it is this signal which will be a large decider in the behavioural direction of the MJO. 


No disrespect to Tamara or any other poster of her ilk, but that is techno-babble of the highest order. We're all free to say what we like, but it's no surprise that people are put-off when reading posts like that. I have a fairly reasonable understanding of meteorology, but sometimes the phrases and terms have to be adjusted to suit a wider audience or else you're leaving yourself open to criticism.


IMO of course.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


On the contrary Niel posts like this made me want to find out more about the things mentioned and when one does it ceases to be technobabble at all.

Matty H
05 February 2015 21:23:40


From Tamara on NW:


There should be no surprise if this signal contiunues to wax and wanes in intra day NWP but don't let that fool anyone. I would also ignore the fact that just a small percentage of post 10 day ensemble data reflects this signal..currently.   It is obscured by a rather obfuscated MJO signal - however, the MJO itself comprises a percentage of the AAM/GWO budget and it is this signal which will be a large decider in the behavioural direction of the MJO. 


No disrespect to Tamara or any other poster of her ilk, but that is techno-babble of the highest order. We're all free to say what we like, but it's no surprise that people are put-off when reading posts like that. I have a fairly reasonable understanding of meteorology, but sometimes the phrases and terms have to be adjusted to suit a wider audience or else you're leaving yourself open to criticism.


IMO of course.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Agree 100%. Nothing against Tamara, but there are plenty of words in there that could be substituted for others, and the whole piece is a mess in terms of being readable. Ian Fergusson is another. In fact their posting styles are virtually identical. "Intra day" phrases like that. 


Respect to them for their knowledge and sharing, but making the points a bit more decipherable would help those with only above average intelligence. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Zubzero
05 February 2015 21:32:26


From Tamara on NW:


There should be no surprise if this signal contiunues to wax and wanes in intra day NWP but don't let that fool anyone. I would also ignore the fact that just a small percentage of post 10 day ensemble data reflects this signal..currently.   It is obscured by a rather obfuscated MJO signal - however, the MJO itself comprises a percentage of the AAM/GWO budget and it is this signal which will be a large decider in the behavioural direction of the MJO. 


No disrespect to Tamara or any other poster of her ilk, but that is techno-babble of the highest order. We're all free to say what we like, but it's no surprise that people are put-off when reading posts like that. I have a fairly reasonable understanding of meteorology, but sometimes the phrases and terms have to be adjusted to suit a wider audience or else you're leaving yourself open to criticism.


IMO of course.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Not knocking Tamara or anyone else that post's in technical weather babble that need's the Oxford dictionary of meteorological terms for the layman to understand.


But are their forecast's/thought's anymore accurate then the less technical forecasts made by other's?


 

some faraway beach
05 February 2015 21:34:14


From Tamara on NW:


There should be no surprise if this signal contiunues to wax and wanes in intra day NWP but don't let that fool anyone. I would also ignore the fact that just a small percentage of post 10 day ensemble data reflects this signal..currently.   It is obscured by a rather obfuscated MJO signal - however, the MJO itself comprises a percentage of the AAM/GWO budget and it is this signal which will be a large decider in the behavioural direction of the MJO. 


No disrespect to Tamara or any other poster of her ilk, but that is techno-babble of the highest order. We're all free to say what we like, but it's no surprise that people are put-off when reading posts like that. I have a fairly reasonable understanding of meteorology, but sometimes the phrases and terms have to be adjusted to suit a wider audience or else you're leaving yourself open to criticism.


IMO of course.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


To which signal does the final "this signal" refer? I read the last sentence as claiming that the MJO signal determines the MJO signal. 


When I worked in a patent office this sort of thing just got sent straight back to the author.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
nouska
05 February 2015 21:37:50


 


 


On the contrary Niel posts like this made me want to find out more about the things mentioned and when one does it ceases to be technobabble at all.


Originally Posted by: blizzard of 78 


Of course the subject is interesting - though I'm sceptical about it as a forecasting tool for the UK. It is the style of writing in strangulated prose that makes the subject seem far more complicated than it is. Maybe such is the intention - to create more mystique.


If one thinks of the two great mountain ranges (Himalayas and Rockies) as boulders in a stream - the greater the flow, the greater the divergence/amplification of current downstream. It's a bit more complicated than that but its not beyond the average reader - why make it so?.


 

some faraway beach
05 February 2015 21:40:45
Very unfair to compare Fergusson to this Tamara poster imo. The care with which Fergusson crafts his posts and Tweets is noteworthy. Everything is correct and unambiguous in terms of grammar, syntax and spelling. If he uses jargon, it's because it enables him to use one word instead of several.

The contrast with the sloppy syntax and needlessly florid vocabulary of the passage quoted here couldn't be greater imo.
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Joe Bloggs
05 February 2015 21:52:52

Very unfair to compare Fergusson to this Tamara poster imo. The care with which Fergusson crafts his posts and Tweets is noteworthy. Everything is correct and unambiguous in terms of grammar, syntax and spelling. If he uses jargon, it's because it enables him to use one word instead of several.

The contrast with the sloppy syntax and needlessly florid vocabulary of the passage quoted here couldn't be greater imo.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


A tad unnecessary? 


Tamara has posted here on TWO on the past as 'north sea snow convection' and we always appreciated the input.


Apologies for being off topic, but I'm becoming increasingly uncomfortable with TWO's hostility to those who share more complex meteorological knowledge. I say this as somebody who cares about this place and has been here since the year dot. 


 Edit - just my opinion and I don't intend to be provocative. I just sometimes think we should read material, shrug our shoulders and decide whether or not we want to absorb it and take it on board. Rather than be a bunch of bitchy old women. :D 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
nsrobins
05 February 2015 22:27:53


 


A tad unnecessary? 


Tamara has posted here on TWO on the past as 'north sea snow convection' and we always appreciated the input.


Apologies for being off topic, but I'm becoming increasingly uncomfortable with TWO's hostility to those who share more complex meteorological knowledge. I say this as somebody who cares about this place and has been here since the year dot. 


 Edit - just my opinion and I don't intend to be provocative. I just sometimes think we should read material, shrug our shoulders and decide whether or not we want to absorb it and take it on board. Rather than be a bunch of bitchy old women. :D 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Joe it wasn't my intention to be provocative either but there is fine balance between informative and descriptive contributions offered by amateurs who have a sound understanding and don't mind sharing it, such as James, Gavin P and Darren for instance, and those that seem to contribute lengthy prose seemingly oblivious to the fact that the vast majority haven't a clue what it means. Take that excerpt I used as an example. If you could let me know what it means in terminology I understand then please do.
The point I'm making is why post that sort of thing when, knowingly or otherwise, a huge majority of people reading it do not benefit in any way whatsoever.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Joe Bloggs
05 February 2015 22:31:20


 


Joe it wasn't my intention to be provocative either but there is fine balance between informative and descriptive contributions offered by amateurs who have a sound understanding and don't mind sharing it, such as James, Gavin P and Darren for instance, and those that seem to contribute lengthy prose seemingly oblivious to the fact that the vast majority haven't a clue what it means. Take that excerpt I used as an example. If you could let me know what it means in terminology I understand then please do.
The point I'm making is why post that sort of thing when, knowingly or otherwise, a huge majority of people reading it do not benefit in any way whatsoever.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Fair enough Neil and I do understand your point. :) 


Perhaps I was a little hasty. 


 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Gooner
05 February 2015 22:46:10

Very unfair to compare Fergusson to this Tamara poster imo. The care with which Fergusson crafts his posts and Tweets is noteworthy. Everything is correct and unambiguous in terms of grammar, syntax and spelling. If he uses jargon, it's because it enables him to use one word instead of several.

The contrast with the sloppy syntax and needlessly florid vocabulary of the passage quoted here couldn't be greater imo.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


Hmmmmm where have I heard that before

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


festivalking
05 February 2015 22:54:28

Tell it's a slow weather day when this forum has taken up discussing a member of another forum!

Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl
Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.

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