Edited for annoying me

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No change to outlook - sometimes dry, sometimes wet, temperatures around average

Dull, duller, dullest

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A filling depression over the English Channel will lose it's identity today followed by a slack area of pressure developing across the UK for the weekend.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and fine weather across the South but more unsettled at times in the North, spreading South too at times albeit briefly. Temperatures will be near or above average generally.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow continuing to be one of West to East across the Atlantic and crossing to the North of the UK. However, the Southern portion of this main arm pulls South at times over the UK as weak troughs cross the UK on several occasions through the period.

http://www.netweathe...ction=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows High pressure well in control of the UK weather through it's run this morning. No High sticks around for long and positioning of it is fluid but they generally are biased to be close to Southern Britain with the Jet Stream flowing around the Northern flank and carrying a lot of benign weather across the UK with dry weather in sometimes large amounts of cloud and temperatures ranging from near normal to above at times. A few troughs not dissimilar to the one this Monday do break through the High pressure at times delivering a little rain before dry weather quickly returns thereafter.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is very similar in all respects with only minor adjustments to the operational of where the High pressure sits day to day with the overall theme identical to that of the operational with any rainfall slight and more likely over the far North.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a more or less 50% spread between High pressure lying to the South of the UK with a strong Westerly flow with rain at times or an equal chance of High pressure lying close to or over SW Britain with NW or variable winds, somewhat cooler but dry conditions for many .

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a mild and strong SW flow towards the middle of next week before a weak front brings a weakening band of rain East or SE soon after nidweek followed by more dry and quiet conditions as High pressure rebuilds from the SW.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show this morning's Low pressure and fronts dissolving away SE with a new front staggering East in the beginning of the new week followed by High pressure close to Southern England setting up a long fetch SW mild airflow across the UK for a time later next week.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a fairly lengthy period when High pressure lies close to the South with the same mild SW flow midweek that other models show once Monday's trough has cleared through. Then later High ressure bases further to the SW of the UK with a dig of colder and more unstable West or NW winds with rain and showers for all, wintry on Northern hills by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a period of mild SW winds too next week, ended by a decaying cold front moving east towards the end of the week returning less mild and breezy weather briefly before the mild West to SW winds return later with some rain in the NW..

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM is much more settled looking than yesterday morning's run with a broad expanse of westerly or SW winds across the Atlantic throughout. With High pressure never far away from Southern England a lot of dry, benign weather is shown with just interruptions from weak fronts decaying SE through the UK at times. Temperatures will range from very mild levels in tropical maritime air to near average in any shift towards polar maritime air in the North especially.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning has flattened the risk of any European troughing at the end of it's run to put the UK under more of a straight Westerly rather than NW'ly and with Low pressure close to the North and High well to the SW the most common weather type shown must being bands of rain and showers crossing West to East over the UK at times in relatively mild conditions.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The long term trend has increased today towards an High pressure orientated period again with a strong trend towards a lot of dry and quiet weather for the UK in general but with rain at times on a stronger Westerly flow at times over the North.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.9 pts over UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 86.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 63.6 pts over GFS's 62.4 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.9 pts over GFS at 43.0.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The current hiatus in the generally High pressure pattern of late is just that as after another troughs staggers East across the UK through Monday before pressure builds strongly close to Southern England next week. With the Jet flow riding strongly East to the North of the UK by then a very mild and strong SW flow blows over the UK for a time with Eastern parts of Scotland in particular likely to see some very mild temperatures for a time. Thereafter, apart from a series of weak fronts crossing down over the UK from the West and NW at times the weather stays largely dry and quiet with just occasional bands of light rain accompanying those fronts before fine and settled weather returns under renewed High pressure. Temperatures will fluctuate at times between levels close to average to rather mild at times dependant on the day to day positioning of High pressure affecting the prevailing winds blowing across the UK. However, all models suggest that Westerly will be the prevailing wind direction for most of the time and this means that South and East will always offer the most shelter while the NW could be damp and windy at times. Longer term still and there is still some suggestion that more unsettled weather will creep further down across the UK with more extensive bands of rain and showers but there is still little evidence of any sting in the tail to end this rather non-descript Winter for many with the SW away from the highest moors seeing little lying snow for the second year in succession.  

Issued at 08:30 Saturday February 14th 2015

this winter sting has been extended from feb to april now by some people.    jokers -  before we know it we will be chasing next winter,  I cant see no winter sting ahead,

What a complete waste of the coldest snowiest time of he year with this non weather! The much predicted 'sting in the tail' is nowhere to be seen. After a pretty boring winter for most one good thing is I think we could be heading for a very hot summer just a hunch.

With long fetch SW'ls on the card it looks as though we're in for an early taste of Spring. Bring it on.

All subject to change but just for Frustration:

More likely is that come June a mega 1090mb High Pressure will extend from Greenland to Finland with low pressure tracking along the English Channel!

Andy

Roll on Spring, we welcome you with open arms

Yes yes yes JFF folks

5-7c for the majority through the next week

Certainly a more unsettled period on the horizon and cooler

Quick heads up...

You can now bookmark individual charts on TWO. To do:

1) Go to the chart viewer and select the chart

2) Click on it and you'll be taken through to a page where it is loaded and can be bookmarked, e.g.:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_240_uk2mtmp.png

a yesterday post from fergie in reply to the above post- sorry to tho who have read this already

Ridge building on the pacific side is more in line with tropical convection around the date line and the weakish phase 8 MJO. Agree with Cohen's
lastest thoughts of a trop split of vortex to what was seen in the strat early January. Also I do not buy into what NOAA and the met and its 
forecasting tools say as gospel.
Cold before February is out and then on into March is my bet. The strat has been a thorn in the backside.

fergie

Hi - There's certainly every likelihood of colder Pm/rPm phases from next weekend onwards, with further cold outbreaks/trough extensions in the US leading to upstream amplification and resultant downward trend for UK temperatures. The point I was making is that the weak MJO signal is presently muddled and thus of little predictive value. The conflicting EC v GS5 trends onwards into mid-March don't help resolve the medium range conundrum post-D15 and hence it remains an imponderable at least for now.     

In laymans terms - could well be colder spells from next weekend. Models aren't showing the same scenario in the medium term, so anything could happen. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A slack pressure gradient lies across the UK today. Pressure will fall in an increasing Southerly flow tonight ahead of a cold front moving slowly across the UK from the West tomorrow

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather seems likely especially in the second week when strong winds and rain may develop for all areas at times. Near average temperatures.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the split flow with a strong arm North of the UK and a weaker split running South over the West of the UK tomorrow will shift East as a strengthening surge in the Northern arm crosses East to the North. The flow then splits again later in the week before a general shift somewhat further South of the flow than has been shown of late is likely later as it is shown crossing Southern Britain and Northern France through Week 2.

http://www.netweathe...ction=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today has shifted much more towards a more cyclonic and mobile nature when compared to yesterday with the occasional weakening troughs crossing East this week superseded by much windier and unsettled conditions in strong Westerly winds with the Atlantic High lying much further to the South and being much less influential. Some occasional spells of cold polar maritime winds from the NW are shown to at times dragging wintry showers through at times to higher ground generally and lower ground too at times later in the far North. A similar theme is shown at the close of the run moving forward.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows a watered down version of the operational holding High pressure somewhat closer to the South at times which makes any polar maritime air incursions much less pronounced that the operational and as a result the wetter spells less pronounced too in the South.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a 40% cluster that support an Icelandic Low and Azores High in two weeks while the remainder show variations of this pattern ranging from a displaced Azores High to the SW and a chilly NW flow across the UK or an even more displaced High North over the Atlantic with a Northerly across the UK.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a strengthening Southwest then West flow through the week with a cloudier and milder interlude with rain in the NW gradually extending to all areas later in the week as pressure falls generally

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show weak fronts crossing slowly East tomorrow followed by a ridge of High pressure over the South and a mild fetch of SW winds developing over the NW by midweek. This extends to all ahead of further cold fronts approaching from the Atlantic at the end of the week.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows High pressure close to the South following a cold front slowly East tomorrow. A mild SW flow will affect the North midweek with the South quieter under High pressure. Then another front crossing all areas from the West later in the week is the introduction to much more unsettled and windy conditions for all as Low pressure develops close to the North with strong winds at times from the West and spells of rain mixed with colder periods with wintry showers in a week or so.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a couple of weakening fronts moving slowly across the UK tomorrow and again later in the week. In between a mild SW flow affects the North with some rain and mild conditions in the sheltered East while the South stays dry and bright. Then by next weekend this model too shows a slow progression into much more unsettled territory for all as pressure falls and strong West winds affect all areas with rain at times.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM is much the same as NAVGEM through the week with the same dip into windy and unsettled weather next weekend as Low pressure drops SE across the North sea with a spell of rain followed by cold and showery conditions following. then as we move through next week the mobile weather pattern persists with fronts crossing East periodically in the strong West breeze with rain at times for all, but as always with High pressure to the South heaviest in the North.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning shows the likelihood that the UK will lie under a Westerly flow in Week 2 between High pressure near the Azores and Low pressure to the North of the UK with the Jet flow close to the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The long term trend has moved back today towards more unsettled conditions developing for all in the second half of the output that would involve some incursions of somewhat colder air at times in a NW wind.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.9 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.7 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 86.8. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.9 pts over GFS's 62.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.8 pts over GFS at 42.4.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The pattern this morning remains one of Atlantic High pressure domination in the short term though that won't exclude a cold frontal trough moving slowly east tomorrow delivering rain for all at some point. Then High pressure builds back across the South towards midweek while the North sees a short spell of mild but strong and moist SW winds with heavy rain over hills. Later in the week another weakening front looks like moving over all areas with another band of relatively light rain but this time introducing a much more buoyant phase of weather as the pressure across the UK falls and Low pressure moves in closer to the North and pushes more significant troughs and accompanying bands of rain followed by showers to all areas. Thereafter most output shows unsettled westerly winds predominating for the rest of the period with the usual cocktail of bands of rain alternating with colder and brighter interludes with showers, wintry at times on hills and in the North. There remains little sign of anything particularly cold or unusual  within any weather parameter over the next few weeks but it does look like the month will end rather wetter than it started for many with temperatures overall not far from average given the time of year.  

Issued at 08:30 Sunday February 15th 2015

Thanks Martin - much appreciated.

I see the 06Z GFS again brings the Azores High into play, nosing it's way into our business yet again.
Story of the 'winter' this season.
Some pM incursions are possible towards the end of Feb I suppose but nothing to get too excited about just yet.

Onward

Indeed is wasn't showing any interest on the 0z

The Control keeps us cold for a period of time

Ouch, don't need that what with the very high tides over next weekend. Squeaky bum time for those living on low lying eastern coastal areas.



GEM is also coming up with the same idea:



And even ECM too . . .



That is what I would call bad timing.