I'm still watching Tuesday for a possible severe thunderstorm environment. ECM continues to make more of the LP to our SW than GFS does, resulting in a more impressive plume and also considerably greater instability during the peak heating hours across S'rn UK.

We often see the timing of the plume end up less than ideal for thunderstorms so even if ECM's near to the mark, there's no need to get too excited/worried (delete as appropriate) just yet.

ECM goes on to phase the energetic low near the UK with the Atlantic low as has been the case on several recent runs now, resulting in a burst of strong westerlies producing another round of autumnal conditions for the UK, in fact the day 8 chart has a slightly tighter squeeze of the isobars than we have seen today, which would be most unwelcome:

Things then get a bit funky to end the run, as the jet winds down again and the pattern amplifies once more:

This weaker jet also emerges on the GFS 12z run, but that model chooses to linger a trough close to the east of the UK for day 10, so not as settled as the ECM option. High pressure then ridges in from the southwest, which is what it seems to be trying to do at the end of the ECM run, so perhaps we're finally starting to see some hints of the finer second half of May that a number of the long range models have spent so long teasing us with?

One can only hope!

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 7TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure moves NE over the Uk today replacing the showery westerly flow followed by a trough of Low pressure edging towards the SW tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but a dry and warm period across the South and East early next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream will ridge North across the UK to be blowing in a NE direction across the British Isles over the next 4-7 days. It then is shown to change trajectory at the same time as moving back South under a UK trough in Week 2 before becoming less defined in both strength and location at the end of the period.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a period of warmer and more humid conditions developing over the latter half of the weekend and start to next week as pressure builds to the SE sending rain bearing troughs towards the North and West only in a Southerly or SW flow. However, this is shown to be shortlived as Atlantic Low pressure sweeps the warm air away East over Europe with a very changeable and cooler period following with strong Westerly winds and rain at times thereafter. In the latter stages of the run the unsettled theme continues with Low pressure close to the East of the UK and cool winds blowing over all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run once more closely follows the theme of the operational with the warm and dry theme for a time next week across the South and East slowly giving way to more unsettled and windy weather with rain at times as Low pressure crosses east to the North of the UK before the desire to bring cool uppers down across the UK late in the run is less marked than with the operational but still shown to affect the UK in a modified way.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show an 80/20 split in likely conditions two weeks from now in preference of a likely ridge lying across the UK from an Atlantic anticyclone with any rain restricted to the far NW but temperatures held close to average by a West to NW breeze. Only 10% of output shows anything resembling unsettled weather spreaading further South across the UK rather than just the NW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows things warming up at the start of next week as High pressure to the SE sucks up some warm and humid air across Southern and Eastern Britain. However, it looks unlikely to last long as the warm air is pushed away East by growing influence of Low pressure to the North and NW with stronger cooler winds and some rain for many by midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a similar evolution with a complex array of troughs and Low pressure at the weekend with attendant rain and showers dissolving as a warm surge of air from the South embraces Southern and Eastern Britain early next week when 25C could be reached in the SE for a time.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning also shows the surge of warm air across the South and East early next week rather slower to give way to more unsettled conditions from off the Atlantic. However, it does eventually remove it away East with all areas eventually coming under the influence of a strong Westerly flow with rain at times, heaviest over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows warmer air across the South and East early next week shunted away East by a cold front midweek and a deep Low pressure to the NW of the UK by next weekend with strong winds, rain then showers for all together with cooler conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows warm and muggy air sucked up across the UK early next week, lasting several days before a thundery trough moves NE over the UK around the middle of the week with fresher cooler air moving NE over all areas. Conditions then continue to be shown to deteriorate as a deep Low moves East to the North of Britain with strong and cool West winds and rain or showers at times for all gradually clearing away from the SW late in the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows quite a cool and changeable pattern looking likely in 10 days time with a West to East Jet flow likely to be blowing across the South of Britain, Low pressure close to the North and a blustery and chilly WNW flow across the UK with some rain or showers a risk for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to suggest that changeable conditions look likely to continue for the next two weeks at least.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.2 pts followed by UKM at 96.6 pts and GFS at 95.9. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 87.8 over UKMO's 86.6 pts with GFS at 84.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 56.8 pts over GFS's 55.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM gains superiority at 38.2 pts over GFS at 37.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Things still look very changeable across the UK over the two week period of the output this morning with something for everyone at some point or another. The current theme of showers and rain at times have another couple of days or so to run yet as a new Low and troughs drift NE across the UK with rain tomorrow and showers on Saturday and blustery winds in places. Then the most pleasurable period of weather across the South and East of Britain looks like taking place between Sunday and Wednesday as building High pressure to the SE sucks up some warm and humid conditions from the South when 25C is possible in places for a time in the SE. Unfortunately it increasingly looks only a shortlived event and never reaches the NW as the Atlantic looks like biting back from midweek. The breakdown will probably take the shape of a band of thundery rain crossing England and Wales midweek and then followed by windier and fresher conditions as a deep Low sets up near North or NW Britain with cool and strong breezes for all bringing spells of rain and showers West to East across all areas late next week. The longer term models then look like carrying this theme on through Week 2 too with rain and showers and quite cool charts shown from the GFS extended runs and although some output show High pressure not too far away in the extended outlook the positioning of the Jet stream forecasted for that time along with poorly aligned High pressure probably to the West or SW indicates the threat of chilly winds from a NW point look most likely to be keeping the average temperatures going right out to the end of the run with the further threat of rain at times especially towards the North.

Next update from 08:00 Friday May 8th 2015

The models aren't looking very summary tonight are they bar the brief plume.

just as well we're still in spring otherwise we could begin to worry lol

No report from me here today or tomorrow...too busy at Craft Fairs but you can read todays abbreviated report at my usual website address:

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Cool May From JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

First cooler than average month since August 2014 maybe?

An abrupt change to the output since yesterday I see - which of course involves cancelling the plume event 

The key change here has been with a small area of low pressure originating near the Azores, which had been projected to head NE and merge with the trough that is north of the UK in the above chart, but is not being projected to get picked up by the trough in the mid-Atlantic instead.

This means that the trough/ridge combination is no longer nicely aligned with the plume, and in fact we receive a dose of fresh Atlantic air on Tuesday instead. The warm air does briefly return on Wednesday but it's mixed out a bit by then so nothing special I'm afraid.

Despite the plume staying further south, the models are still showing the jet becoming a bit excited later on next week, with a mobile westerly flow for a few days bringing near average temperatures and variable cloud with a few spells of rain.

By day 9, the westerlies are relaxing again, and we're left without any particular setup dominating the Arctic, while the MJO is looking weak and there's not much going on with the stratosphere anymore (as per usual for the time of year), so there's little to work with when trying to figure out where we're likely to head.

In theory the general lowering of heights in the vicinity of Greenland ought to be a good sign at this time of year for the Azores High to get in on the act here, yet many recent operational runs have tended to keep that backed west of the UK for some reason. This is where the lack of MJO forcing leaves me puzzled.

I still wonder where the long range models were getting their signal for a strong Euro High in the second half of May from... whatever it was has clearly changed significantly in recent times. Either that or the shorter range models have totally lost it 

The unsettled and coolish weather had been here for a very long time as the trees was reluctant to make leaves early and was very slow process this year.  Just fortunate the weather was good and warmish on Bank Holiday Monday car sales which was a good day.  The front page here other day said to reach 27C here was wrong input after I check the models and none was showing 27C at all.  So we are overdue for some real May warmth and average temps here max yearly is around 27-28C so if the models won't show it yet it will come at some point otherwise a shocking May without a week of warm weather.  Sea temps also seem tad very low at 11C which been static for nearly 2 months now.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY MAY 10TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm front will move NE across Northern areas with a cold front moving slowly SE tonight and tomorrow across England and Wales weakening as it goes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times especially over the North but spells of dry and fine weather too for all.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream will blow NE across the UK through the early days of this week before moving South later this week under a UK trough. Later the flow weakens and becomes more ill defined.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a period of warmer and more humid conditions developing early this week as a ridge moves NE. Then more unsettled weather with rain at times feeds in from the West by the weekend with temperatures rather lower. Then the weather turns more traditional under a North/South split with rain at times over the North while the South turns fine and bright at times. Then later in the run roles reverse as pressure builds to the North and Low to the South with a fresh East breeze and rain at times in the South while the North becomes dry with the best Western in Western Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is quite similar in many respects through Week 1 before the same pressure reversal in Week 2 is less pronounced and after a while reverts back to more normal conditions with the North having the greater risk of rain after a while as High pressure remains to the South or SE.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters are quite mixed this morning with no clear pattern given at Day 14 apart from the fact that quite slack conditions could prevail across the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure close to the SE over the coming days with sunshine and warm weather down here while Northern and Western areas stay more changeable. Then at the end of the week Low pressure looks poised to the SW to spill rain across the UK with a ridge following on behind drying things up again from the West next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a warm up early next week with warm SW winds across the South and East. Low pressure moves up towards the SW later this week with rain threatening by Thursday and most likely for all on Friday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning looks very High pressure based as the early High to the SE gives way only briefly to a more unsettled phase late in the week as Low pressure crosses the UK. Through next weekend and the start of Week 2 High pressure rebuilds strongly right across the UK on this run with developing sunny and warm conditions for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a cooler and unsettled phase late this week and early next weekend before High pressure builds back towards SW Britain through the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows High pressure near the SE early this week with Low pressure following in late in the week with some rain replacing the dry and warmer conditions early on. After the rain pressure rebuilds slowly from the South or SW but doesn't extend to all areas on this run meaning while the South and West become dry and brighter the North and East could see rather cooler weather later under a NW flow with some showers in places here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night is in good agreement with the operational with High pressure to the SW having some influence across the UK maintaining any occasional rain mostly towards the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends remain focused on the slow extension of the influence of High pressure to the South or SW across the UK at the 10 day time point.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.1 pts followed by UKM at 96.4 pts and GFS at 95.7. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 87.6 over UKMO's 85.5 pts with GFS at 84.5. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 56.4 pts over GFS's 53.4 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM gains superiority at 37.8 pts over GFS at 37.1.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The general theme of the models this morning look focused on the influence of High pressure and it's positioning in relation to the UK over week 2. Through the coming week the High pressure zone to the SE bathes England and Wales in relatively warm weather with some warm sunshine until Thursday when an intervention of Low pressure from the West moves in with some rain or showers for all in cooler conditions generally. This then looks to give way over the weekend as High pressure rebuilds, most likely from the SW or South. We then look like falling under a North/South split in conditions with South seeing the best of any dry and fine conditions while the North continues to see some rain at times. Some output extend this High across all of Britain in Week 2 especially GEM who brings fine and warm conditions for all later while the extended output from GFS switch High pressure to the North later with the risk of the best conditions reversing to Northern areas as winds switch to the East. This is way out in the 10-14 days time point though and is obviously open to much modification and even removal in subsequent output with the most likely evolution in the closer time frame for High pressure to lie somewhere to the South or SW of the UK in 10 days with some or possibly a lot of influnece across at least the South of the UK in temperatures close to or perhaps a little above normal in the South. Nowhere in the next two weeks look like experiencing anything extreme in weather terms with generally quite benign conditions with just occasional rain or showers and a lot of dry, relatively quiet weather for all at times. Temperatures also look unremarkable with times of pleasantly warm conditions without ever being hot and periods of rather cooler conditions with temperatures never being very chilly either.

Next update from 08:00 Monday May 11th 2015

Nice ecm tonight much more settled than recent runs. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

A bit of irrigational rain Thursday Friday.   Things setting up nicely with decent sun and spring warmth before and after for many.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MAY 11TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A decaying front will move SE across remaining parts of England and Wales through the day followed by another one moving East over Southern England tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times especially over the North but spells of dry and fine weather too for all.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream will blow NE across the UK to begin the period before slipping South briefly soon after midweek. It then moves North to blow directly West to East across the UK next weekend and beyond before troughing South again across the UK late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows changeable conditions through the two week period this morning. After a brief warmer interlude through the first half of this week the general theme looks increasingly cool as Low pressure feeds down from the North from next weekend with a lot of showery West, NW or even North winds feeding the cool air to all areas in association with Low pressure towards the NE while higher pressure lies to the West and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is quite similar in many respects through the period although the changeable theme next week is less pronounced although the air is equally inherently chilly with some sunny spells, fewer showers than the operational suggests but the risk of some unwanted frost at night should skies clear sufficiently around dawns.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain quite mixed with the genral theme that the most likely scenario in two weeks time will be High pressure of sorts to the West extending some influence across the UK in a airflow from the West or a chillier NW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure will slip ESE across Southern Britain on Thursday before winds back towards the West with rather cloudy skies and some rain at times across the North next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the Low pressure area on Thursday carrying rain across Central and Southern areas while by Friday it has exited East to a Northerly ahead of a ridge and Atlantic westerlies for next weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows Low pressure later this week giving way to a more Westerly flow next wekend when most rain will affect the North only. Later in the run Low pressure will become more influential to all areas from the North with rain at times and temperatures suppressed to average levels if not somewhat below especially in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a similar theme as the rest through this week with Westerly winds blowing across the UK a week from now with High pressure closest to the South by then deflecting rain bearing fronts largely to the North of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM follows the theme of the rest with High pressure to the South at the weekend with the UK lying under a rather cloudy Westerly flow with a little rain at times especially in the North. Then next week also as the majority of other output Low pressure moving down from the North influences a bigger slice of the UK in rather cool and showery conditions. Pressure is shown to rise again at the end of the run but the air remains none too warm for this stage in May.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows High pressure to the SW of the UK throwing a ridge close to Southern England with a Westerly flow blowing across most areas of the UK, no doubt with some rain at times to the North in particular.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends show a deterioration in conditions next week as cool Low pressure is showing a growing trend to feed down from the North.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKM at 96.3 pts and GFS at 95.5. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 87.3 over UKMO's 84.9 pts with GFS at 84.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 56.3 pts over GFS's 53.1 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM maintains superiority at 38.0 pts over GFS at 35.9.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The message from the models continue to put high Summer on hold this morning though overall conditions will not feel that bad at times. The theme of the first week is for a quiet few days as a ridge crosses east over the UK towards Wednesday though a risk of frost on Tuesday night is worthy of mention. Then a small depression crosses East over the South on Thursday with rain quickly followed by improving conditions again on Friday. This then sets up a more direct West to East flow across Britain with High pressure lying to the South keeping rain bearing fronts generally over the north of the UK with the South seeing plenty of dry if rather cloudy weather. Then next week shows Low pressure to the North feeding influence down over many areas at least for a time with showers extending to all areas in a rather cold NW breeze. Late in the two week period there is some support for rising pressure again with the weather drying up again but temperatures never look like being anything other than normal or skightly below with the continued risk then of some ground frosts if High pressure and cool air combine. So while no heatwave is expected over the next few weeks the weather will neither be a washout with plenty of fine and dry weather to be enjoyed by all but with some brief showery spells spoiling the party and more importantly some rather cool temperatures at times too as winds remain featured mostly from a North or NW point through the second week inparticularly.

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday May 12th 2015

oh but people saying summer is going to be rubbish because of a nice April, people on here with doom & gloom posts because a week or 2 of unsettled weather is forecasted in May... But this is okay because it's not winding people up??

It would be foolish to make assumptions about our coming summer as so many of the background signals are very different to what they were in the most recent period of wet/coolsummers. Then the PDO was very negative and el Nino could not establish; now we have very warm PDO (last this warm in 2003) and Nino 1-2 is now warming rapidly. Strong tropical activity is forecast in the WPAC and that will enhance the westerly wind bursts to see the warming increase.

The charts are not inspiring but are fairly typical of a declining solar cycle with the reappearance of northern blocking around the Greenland area. This is probably reinforced by the ENSO circulation pattern and may continue through June - see the JMA circulation correlation for different parameters.

Thereafter the signal looks to improve throughout July and August ...... indeed, quite a few of the analogues I looked at for the CET had very warm months after the June 'monsoon' was out of the way.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/newoceanindex/index.html

I've actually got some fairly interesting research that someone sent to me Re. this Summer. I may put it up to the Blog as a "Guest post" so will keep you posted.

Meanwhile;

Here's today's video update;

Cool And Unsettled Next  8-10 Days

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Also a quick looks at latest Met Office summer update...

I can answer this already - it would be. 

I never read any LRF and never will until it becomes scientifically possible to forecasts a season with any degree of accuracy, but yeah, you're more than welcome to write it, just don't add caveats like "I'm not surprised by how it's panning out" because it looks daft IMO  

Forecast percentage of rainfall over the 10 day period on tonight's ECM. Pretty variable distribution all in all.