I don't know where Beast is this morning. He was always so dismissive about Dan Hodges in the Telegraph, but he has been proved right about everything apart from the level of UKIP support, which he thought would be in single figures. He was spot on about Miliband's Labour however.

Dan of course would like the elder brother to return from across the water - but I don't see how that would be possible.

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And that's it - the Tories have a working majority.

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Let's just ... er ... remind ourselves of the face of this morning 

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Nice one SE

What does Brussels do when the voters get it wrong?

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I'm sure Matty was hoping I had gone off to top myself, but I think this place benefits from different opinions

Just a few thoughts on a fascinating result, though not that surprising.

The pollsters cannot be blamed. They did everything correctly, its just voters were not being truthful like what happened in Israel.

I never thought Labour would win this election if the economy was going ok on paper at least. Even David Miliband would have lost. Voters very rarely throw out a government after only one term, and the Tories have cleverly held back the really unpopular austerity measures until the second term.

Anecdotally speaking to real people that I know, the feeling was that the economy is doing well and Labour would f*ck it up, even some Labour voters believed this. When I try to explain that it is just a service sector and house price bubble, and the underlying structural problems remain, debt spiralling out of control etc... it doesnt wash.

The actual real economy needs to falter, as I think it will do, then voters will punish the Tories. But we will have to wait another few years

Good piece from D'Ancona. The Tories will find it much harder governing with a small majority without the Liberals as cover and taking all the blame. This parliament could be like 1992-97. The Tories ripping themselves apart over Europe, the Tory right holding Cameron to ransom. The economy will also go back into recession and savage cuts to welfare and public services will make the Tories very unpopular very quickly. Labour needs to get a strong leader in place soon.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/08/tories-eu-referendum-uk-david-cameron

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Before he quietly slips away to his two kitchens, let us pause for a moment and give thanks for Ed Miliband:

 

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How much money has been wasted in this election for nothing?

David Axelrod, that monolith, Ashcroft waste of time polls, LibDems lost deposits?

How many LibDem deposits have been lost?

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It may or may not and if I was you I'd not be relying on this. The signs from the Eurozone are that growth is picking up and America is steaming ahead. With Farage out of the way and UKIP support by and large coming from 'low value' voters it should be easy for Cameron to get a 'deal' and keep Britain in the EU. If the EU is seen to be growing then another pressure valve is released. Yes things could go horribly wrong on a number of fronts but equally they may not. My view is Cooper and David Milliband are not the answer. You need to skip a generation to be back in the game. 

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My parents' constituency, and the first one I ever voted in in 1992 before I left home, is The Cotswolds, one of the few left to declare. They were supposed to do so at about 4am, so was wondering why they still hadn't.

Reading the local rag's update page, it sounds like the count is being conducted by a load of imbeciles!

http://www.wiltsglosstandard.co.uk/news/12938264.Cotswolds_election_2015__Live_coverage___STILL_COUNTING_VOTES/

 

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Not yet. When the EU (I guess its more when now than if) happens in 2017 UKIP will be the biggest pro campaigners and prove very significant in the outcome of the referendum. It will be then interesting to see how their support changes. Still, pretty sad Farage didn't get Thanet.

 

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9 seats left to declare, and nearly all pretty easy to call.

St Ives - CON gain from LD
The Cotswolds - CON hold
Warwick & Leamington - CON hold
Kenilworth & Southam - CON hold
Luton South - LAB hold *
Hexham - CON hold
Berwick-upon-Tweed - CON gain from LD
Wansbeck - LAB hold
Blyth Valley - LAB hold

*A small chance of an upset here as a swing of less than 3% from LAB to CON could see a CON gain

Assuming that the above is correct, we have

CON - 331
LAB - 232
LD - 8
UKIP - 1
SNP - 56
Green - 1
PC - 3
Northern Ireland - 18

A Conservative Majority of 12. (Or 14 if they win Luton South)

So the Exit Poll underestimated the Conservatives by 15 seats, and the call of a hung parliament was wrong, though the Exit Poll was an awful lot closer than any of the other polling.

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Almost 4 million people voted UKIP and yet they elected only one MP.

Good old FPTP system, what a way NOT to represent people's views!

Indeed - complete shxte

Meanwhile Miliband has resigned

 

2 UUP MPs are effectively Northern Irish Conservatives, I suppose you could add them to any Tory majority.

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Clegg, Farage and Milliband all resign. 

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Will Osborne be moved from Chancellor position?

Foreign Secretary?

Home Secretary?

Since no LibDems will be in government means more Tories can be ministers this time.

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#bringbackblair

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Fair play to Farage for sticking to his guns and resigning. He didnt have to and UKIP need him to hold Cameron to account over Europe.

The Tory party will rip itself apart over this referendum. Cameron will be in favour of staying in, most of his party will want to get out. Cameron may resign if he loses the vote. Anyway, a long way ahead for that..

 

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The closest thing we have now is Chuka. I know people on this forum hate him, but by definition he is something different and he is slick and good on TV. That is what Labour needs to cut through the media, who will give him a fair wind because of his background. Even the right wing press like the idea of "Britains Obama". Its a good narrative and he is Blairite and pro-business.

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Clegg made an excellent leaving speech...actually quite moving..in contrast to Ed Milliband's....He seemed to be saying ...keep going with the same policies and all it needs is one more heave to get over the line in 5 years time....even I who are broadly sympathetic to soem of his policies, recognise thst isn't going to work...my word whoever takes over is going to have a mighty difficult and unenviable job!

#bringbackming(menzies)

Some facts.

Cameron is first PM since Thatcher to increase seat numbers at an election (1983)

He is the first incumbent PM to increase share of vote since Wilson in '74

First Tory PM to increase share of vote since Eden in '55

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What line? One where they need a minibus rather than taxi to get their MPs to Westminster?

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I think that trying to predict what's going to happen in the next 5 years, and what will happen at the polls in 2020, is about as pointless as one of James Madden's forecasts.

This time 5 years ago, I don't think anyone would have foreseen what has just happened, and in fact this time 24 hours ago I don't think anyone really had a clue!

Forgetting Europe, some other event, a change in the UK's economic fortunes, war, terrorism or something else that none of us have thought of could be the single defining point of this parliament, that determines the result next time.

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