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warrenb
08 May 2015 14:36:09


 


Much more accurate than the conventional polling, but still out by some way.


The Exit Poll suggested a hung parliament, and the first hour of the BBC's broadcast saw interviews with various Conservative politicians (May, Boris, Gove) asking them who they would be dealing with to form a majority. In the event, they have a majority of 12.


Exit Poll Errors (actual result in brackets)
Con 316 (331) +15
Lab 239 (232) -7
LD 10 (8) -2
UKIP 2 (1) -1
Green 2 (1) -1
SNP 58 (56) -2
PC 4 (3) -1
Respect 1 (0) -1


So the exit poll understated the Conservatives, and overstated all other parties. Did some shy Tories even lie in the secret ballot used by the exit poll?


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


 


Looking at it with seats shows the above but percentage wise it was around 0.3% out for the Tories and around 0.1% out for Labour, so not bad at all.

Tonbridge 45m 
KevBrads1
08 May 2015 14:38:09
You think Labour would have learnt?

Douglas Alexander was Scottish Secretary during the controversial Holyrood elections as well behind the non election car crash.

Now you would have thought this would have raised alarm bells about him being involved in election planning?

No it didn't they chose him for 2010 and it lead to 29% of the vote.

So what do Labour do? Go back to him, this time it ends with less seats and him losing his seat.

Do you think Labour should have heeded the warning signs?
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
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Maunder Minimum
08 May 2015 15:03:16

You think Labour would have learnt?

Douglas Alexander was Scottish Secretary during the controversial Holyrood elections as well behind the non election car crash.

Now you would have thought this would have raised alarm bells about him being involved in election planning?

No it didn't they chose him for 2010 and it lead to 29% of the vote.

So what do Labour do? Go back to him, this time it ends with less seats and him losing his seat.

Do you think Labour should have heeded the warning signs?

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


If Labour had admitted a couple of years ago that they had overspent under Brown


If Labour had chosen David instead of Ed...


Things might have turned out differently for them.


Not that they would have won a majority, but they might have got enough to form a minority Government with SNP backing.

New world order coming.
Matty H
08 May 2015 15:19:18

Still staggered at the sheer scale of the victory. 330 is incredible, and to think there were people on here threatening to eat all sorts of they got anywhere near 300. Add to that those that claimed the Internet/phone polls are crap - the turned out to be the closest to reliable. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
KevBrads1
08 May 2015 15:41:26
Theresa May, Foreign Secretary?
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
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KevBrads1
08 May 2015 15:42:30

George Osborne is retained as Chancellor

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
08 May 2015 15:52:57

Unfortunately, I think this could be the demise of the LibDems, unless they re-invent themselves.  At the last election, they seemed to have increase their share of votes but I think the coalition did them more harm than good.  It's a shame because I'd have voted for them if I thought it wouldn't be a wasted vote here.  Our LibDem candidate has never been a serious contender but I think people were voting towards wanting a change from the two big parties and now UKIP seem to be more prominent.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
The Beast from the East
08 May 2015 15:52:58


 


 


Part of me thinks "Good, you deserve it, you bunch of rent boys".


Another part wishes they were right now in discussions to form another coalition


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I would have preferred the Coalition to survive. At least Clegg could have kept Cameron under control a bit. Now I really fear for the future of this country. It really does feel exactly like 1992. Absolute shock and despondency and also resentment that the voters can be so stupid. Yes, I know that sounds elitist etc, but thats how I feel


You get the leaders you deserve and the Cameroonism will now be allowed to reach its conclusion. I think it will leave the country in a terrible state. As you have said earlier, in areas where the Tories dont win votes, the cuts have already been devastating. Now other areas will suffer.


Labour is at a cross-roads now. Either they go down the SNP or Syriza route of more radical leftism or they go back to Blairism. To be honest I dont know which way is better. If there is another recession, then perhaps there will be an appetite for a more radical alternative for the working classes in England and Wales. If the Tories are smart, they will water down some of their cuts. But without the Lib Dems, they may feel emboldened to do what they idealogically want to in their hearts. That would be a mistake for them and allow a route back for Labour

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
KevBrads1
08 May 2015 15:57:40

Theresa May, Foreign Secretary?

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


No still, Home Secretary.

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
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doctormog
08 May 2015 16:00:35


 


I would have preferred the Coalition to survive. At least Clegg could have kept Cameron under control a bit. Now I really fear for the future of this country. It really does feel exactly like 1992. Absolute shock and despondency and also resentment that the voters can be so stupid. Yes, I know that sounds elitist etc, but thats how I feel


You get the leaders you deserve and the Cameroonism will now be allowed to reach its conclusion. I think it will leave the country in a terrible state. As you have said earlier, in areas where the Tories dont win votes, the cuts have already been devastating. Now other areas will suffer.


Labour is at a cross-roads now. Either they go down the SNP or Syriza route of more radical leftism or they go back to Blairism. To be honest I dont know which way is better. If there is another recession, then perhaps there will be an appetite for a more radical alternative for the working classes in England and Wales. If the Tories are smart, they will water down some of their cuts. But without the Lib Dems, they may feel emboldened to do what they idealogically want to in their hearts. That would be a mistake for them and allow a route back for Labour


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


It doesn't sound elitist, it just sounds silly and rather bitter. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Charmhills
08 May 2015 16:01:32

Tories now on 331 seats!


I'm still dreaming surely

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
WanderingLonelyAsACumulonimbusIncus
08 May 2015 16:16:27


Still staggered at the sheer scale of the victory. 330 is incredible, and to think there were people on here threatening to eat all sorts of they got anywhere near 300. Add to that those that claimed the Internet/phone polls are crap - the turned out to be the closest to reliable. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Agreed  Can't believe this result if I'm honest.

Malcolm UserPostedImage
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE
David M Porter
08 May 2015 16:22:54

The only positive thing about the outcome of the election for me was the well-predicted huge increase in the number of SNP seats at Westminster. As a previous Labour & Lib Dem voter, I gave my vote yesterday to my constituency's SNP candidate, who was none other than former BBC Breakfast News presenter John Nicolson, who has taken the East Dunbartonshire seat from Jo Swinson.


Cameron should be very careful from now on how he treats the Scottish issue, because Alex Salmond and co will almost certainly keep him on his toes throughout the coming five years.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Darren S
08 May 2015 16:28:57


 


If Labour had admitted a couple of years ago that they had overspent under Brown


If Labour had chosen David instead of Ed...


Things might have turned out differently for them.


Not that they would have won a majority, but they might have got enough to form a minority Government with SNP backing.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Yes, Ed Milliband's tenure at the Head of the Labour Party was one of the best things that could have happened for the Conservatives. 

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
eastcoaster
08 May 2015 16:29:59


 


I would have preferred the Coalition to survive. At least Clegg could have kept Cameron under control a bit. Now I really fear for the future of this country. It really does feel exactly like 1992. Absolute shock and despondency and also resentment that the voters can be so stupid. Yes, I know that sounds elitist etc, but thats how I feel


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Don't feel bad you are Labour and its in Labours nature to feel elitist, because essentially you know you are always right and if it wasn't for the damn stupidity of a chunk of working people who are not as educated as yourselves you would always win. You know you are the "Progressive" ones and that is good, because even if no one knows what it really means in relation to politics it sounds like you are moving forward and for FFS why can't the stupid ones just understand that!


As much as you generally seem a pretty decent bloke Beast, I think the last sentence is really indicative of how the Labour party views ordinary people, the problem is we all know that's how they feel.

chichesterweatherfan
08 May 2015 16:39:57
Cameron says the Tory party will be governing for the whole country...yeh right....I'll believe that when I see it!

For the losing parties, in the immediate aftermath of a shocking defeat, things always seem far blacker than in reality they are....

A new leader,new opportunities, who knows where the economy will be in 5 years time, the argument for Time for a change may be stronger in 2020.... The failure to deliver all the promises made by Cameron et al about the NHS may come back to haunt him...Tory right wing backbencher loons of which there are many...the EU referendum....all these and the unknowns... In a few years time may come to the fore and it will feel a bit different than it does today....
Maunder Minimum
08 May 2015 16:42:42


Don't feel bad you are Labour and its in Labours nature to feel elitist, because essentially you know you are always right and if it wasn't for the damn stupidity of a chunk of working people who are not as educated as yourselves you would always win. You know you are the "Progressive" ones and that is good, because even if no one knows what it really means in relation to politics it sounds like you are moving forward and for FFS why can't the stupid ones just understand that!


As much as you generally seem a pretty decent bloke Beast, I think the last sentence is really indicative of how the Labour party views ordinary people, the problem is we all know that's how they feel.


Originally Posted by: eastcoaster 


The "plebs" have not listened to the message:


Speaking to the BBC, Kinnock said: "It is a matter of mood and self-delusion that makes people eventually, regardless of what they feel they should be doing when they speak to the opinion pollsters, taking a different view with that stub of pencil in the privacy of a [polling booth]."


It does not occur to Labour that it is the message which is wanting.

New world order coming.
David M Porter
08 May 2015 16:42:57


 


Yes, Ed Milliband's tenure at the Head of the Labour Party was one of the best things that could have happened for the Conservatives. 


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


IIRC, Ed only got the leader's job in 2010 because the unions at the time wanted him more than his brother.


To be honest, I had long thought at the back of my mind that he wasn't the right choice to replace Brown after the last election, and last night's result pretty much underlined that.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Justin W
08 May 2015 16:48:07


Don't feel bad you are Labour and its in Labours nature to feel elitist, because essentially you know you are always right and if it wasn't for the damn stupidity of a chunk of working people who are not as educated as yourselves you would always win. You know you are the "Progressive" ones and that is good, because even if no one knows what it really means in relation to politics it sounds like you are moving forward and for FFS why can't the stupid ones just understand that!


As much as you generally seem a pretty decent bloke Beast, I think the last sentence is really indicative of how the Labour party views ordinary people, the problem is we all know that's how they feel.


Originally Posted by: eastcoaster 


 


As you said eastcoaster, you and I don't often agree but I'm with you on this.


I've voted Conservative more times than I've voted Labour and I briefly flirted with Labour this time because I'm pro-European and I don't like Cameron. But the attitude of elitist tw*ts like Ed Balls coupled Miliband's ridiculous stunt with the monolith really put any idea of voting Labour to rest - they were both indicative of the attitude you describe: taking their supporters and the general hoi poloi for granted and treating us like idiots.


I voted Lib Dem and I still don't like Cameron and thought the Tories ran a terrible campaign. But Labour in the closing stages were just appalling.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Ulric
08 May 2015 16:56:48
Agree. Labour are unelectable ATM. I fear the electorate have underestimated the moderating influence of the Lib Dems on Tory excesses though.
To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Saint Snow
08 May 2015 17:08:02


Tories now on 331 seats!


I'm still dreaming surely


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


 


Surely your testicles are empty by now


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Charmhills
08 May 2015 17:09:27


 


 


Surely your testicles are empty by now


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Nope.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Whether Idle
08 May 2015 17:15:13

The biggest joke was Cameron bullshitting on this morning about wanting to be a one nation Tory and to work for our United Kingdom.


I realise the Tories are shameless.  I realise they have cannibalised their bedfellows the Lib Dems in the pursuit of power.  They strategized to unleash the nationalist beast in Scotland via the referendum and knowing where the end game of that play would leave Labour, again, all about power and nothing to do with the lies Cameron was spewing this morning.


Personally financially I will be better off this morning under a new Tory administration IF they keep to their bribes from the election period.


But I voted to support the more vulnerable members of our society for whom I now genuinely fear in a Tory government with out the sanitizing influence of the now cannibalised Lib Dems.


 


A sad day and a worrying future for Britain.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Bugglesgate
08 May 2015 17:38:06


They strategized to unleash the nationalist beast in Scotland via the referendum and knowing where the end game of that play would leave Labour, again, all about power and nothing to do with the lies Cameron was spewing this morning.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


I really   think you are giving them too much credit  here -I  don't think they are that clever -  I'm pretty sure nobody was more  surprised  than Cameron  when he ended up with a working majority !

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
KevBrads1
08 May 2015 17:40:57


The biggest joke was Cameron bullshitting on this morning about wanting to be a one nation Tory and to work for our United Kingdom.


I realise the Tories are shameless.  I realise they have cannibalised their bedfellows the Lib Dems in the pursuit of power.  They strategized to unleash the nationalist beast in Scotland via the referendum and knowing where the end game of that play would leave Labour, again, all about power and nothing to do with the lies Cameron was spewing this morning.


Personally financially I will be better off this morning under a new Tory administration IF they keep to their bribes from the election period.


But I voted to support the more vulnerable members of our society for whom I now genuinely fear in a Tory government with out the sanitizing influence of the now cannibalised Lib Dems.


 


A sad day and a worrying future for Britain.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


So was the Labour campaign all right? 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

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