Not looking good at all.

The major thing I can say about this June so far is that - although its been cool - I have had quite a few decent bright and even sunny days, although temperatures have been lower than they should be.

Anything is better than endless wind and rain like 2012.

Got to say that here in this part of NW England (Merseyside/Manchester), it's not been that bad a June. Cool, yes - but that's not as much of a problem with 'feel' because neither april nor May were warm. The most important thing is that it's been mostly dry, with a decentish amount of sun.

Temps up toward 25c would be lovely - but not essential for an OK June.

Course, if July & aug follow the same pattern, then it'll have been a crap summer. But plenty of time left yet.

The jet sure does get a bit angry on that ECM run in the latter stages. Plenty of room for that to be toned down... you never know!

Hopefully it's got the handling of that shallow low next week right, and it leaves us alone - the result could be a couple of very warm days for the southeast in particular.

At this end of the UK, June's finally climbed up to near average temperature wise.

Pretty much the same on this side of the pond too. We tend to do much better under anticyclonic easterlies but in fairness this June has been pretty dry, if cooler and cloudier than one would expect.

By contrast another very pleasant day dominated by sunny intervals down here.  Huge differences over relatively short distances.  The north south divide may continue a while yet.  Also, I have noted that (at least in this neck of the woods), the models have tended to over-do the low pressure at 168 and beyond this month, with the actuality being more benign.  Perhaps the opposite has been the case up north?

Charts depicting poor weather a week away hold no sway for me. Charts within the semi reliable are of more interest, take this for example-

Here is a chart at 6 days which has much promise for many:

Although this month has been mixed to say the least, I think that notion has already been shot down in flames Moomin, given that some places, mostly in the south to be fair, have already had quite a few days of temps well into the 20s. Even up here, we had about 5 days of pretty decent summer weather last week.

Besides, I wasn't aware that summer ends at the end of June!

Bump

Hmmm, the silence from Moomin is deafening!

Its looking like a typical North-South split in the mid term after a generally cool and potentially convective start to the week for many. Apart from the early part of the week the south has pressure in excess of 1020mb, whereas the north is subject to the cooler westerly atlantic influences and attendant fronts at times.

Often pleasant in the south, often showery in the north.

18-21c in south, 16-19c Midlands, 14-17c Northern England with 12-15c for Scotland would be my call for maximum temperatures for most of next week. Minimum temperatures though are likely to be well below par particularly early in the week, hence affecting the CET.

you don't have to back it up, just admit that you can't - which you just did. Sorry, I just don't like daft, sweeping statements that have no truth in them. Or to be more precise, I don't mind them as long as they're not presented as factual. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 19TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will weaken as troughs of Low pressure cross East over the UK tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow doggedly remaining rather unseasonable in both position and strength at times through the next few weeks often blowing across the UK from West or NW to East or SE. The trajectory does change to more of a SW to NE axis later in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a gentle shift into somewhat more changeable conditions across the UK albeit the conditions bringing these conditions are slack and ill defined day to day as only shallow troughs drift across most parts at times with scattered showers and outbreaks of rain in places. Later in the period a more concise drift into breezier and unsettled weather under Atlantic Low pressure looks possible for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a very similar pattern today wih the same shallow airflow pattern next week gradually intensifying into a more pronounced pull of Atlantic Westerlies in Week 2 with some dry and bright spells in between for all areas.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters all show the likelihood that winds will be blowing from between West and North in two weeks time with somewhat changeable conditions for all with occasional oubtreaks of rain and temperatures no great shakes for late June.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a flat pattern next week with a lot of influence from High pressure just to the South of the UK with a lot of dry weather as a result but with the risk of slow moving showers at times too, perhaps most likely towards the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex array of weak troughs crossing the UK from the NW or West at times, each bringing their own version of more cloud and occasional rain or showers as they pass with some dry and bright weather for all too in between.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM  GEM also shows High pressure largely clinging on especially to the South where a lot of dry and sometimes quite warm weather prevails with just the risk of a few showers at times. In the North more changeable conditions are indicated but by no means a washout here either.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a lot of fair weather across the UK as synoptics remain slack with relatively light winds some showers but still with a lot of dry weather too when it will feel quite warm in the light winds and sunshine especially over the South

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning is also less unsettled looking  though in its latter stages it does show many areas falling under the influence of Atlantic Low pressure and while the South remains escaping the worst of this the North could see some more appreciable rainfall.

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows very similar synoptics to the 1o Day operational chart to today so I would suggest that this morning's release later will show little overall difference to last night's offering.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today seem to have shifted back somewhat to less influence from Low pressure affecting the South next week with somewhat less definition in the more general Low pressure previously shown in the second weektoo.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.8 too. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.6 pts with GFS at 83.5 pts and UKMO at 83.0 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.3 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 20.8 pts to 19.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Slightly busy this morning so just a quick appraisal of the runs this morning and in general they reflect a somewhat better picture again with less domination from Low pressure once we get through the messy array of troughs affecting the UK early next week. High pressure looks to be holding on for dear life across Southern Britain from most output this morning with more of North/South split likely through week 2 when things could become warm and humid across the South in largely dry weather while the North sees the greatest chance of rain and showers then. So while there is the risk of a shower almost anywhere next week a lot of dry weather will largely supercede the effects of this with temperatures pleasant enough for late June in the South and while the North may see more in the way of wind and rain in Week 2 the South looks set fair with a warm SW feed likely..  

Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 20th 2015

One of them will be wrong, a strong nationwide HP over UK tomorrow or a London ensembles graph show high spike of rain tomorrow?  Who is right as both are not matched what the charts showing or ensembles showing which should show a deep LP over us to generate huge spike tomorrow. 

Thanks Martin - Certainly a slightly better set of outputs than yesterdays deterioration. Hoping the AH keeps protecting us

I think that gut feeling and what has happened in the past doesn't count for much, if anything, when it comes to the weather. There is no point IMO in looking back on past summers that started in a similar vein to this one and then turned into overall poor summers, and thinking that the same thing is almost certain to happen this year. I don't put much, if any, faith in pattern matching because the UK's climate is so variable.

FWIW, I recall that this time in 2013, there were a few people who were ready to write off that summer as a whole, coming as it did on the back of 6 poor ones, and look at what that July gave us.

I am naturally a glass half empty person - extremely pessimistic - and always have been. It's just in my nature. If I prepare for the worst and hope for the best that's better than vice versa. It avoids major disappointment!

The largely fine weather of the last couple of weeks looks set to continue here for some time yet. Nowhere near as good the further north you head unfortunately. 

Hi all

Here's today's video update;

Disappointing July Hints From JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Still thinking August could be best of the Summer...  

Oh God, more north /south splits, that seems to be the theme of this summer.

Currently 12.7c here under heavy cloud although at least the wind is lighter today, up north the weather is a lot colder than the Synoptics suggest and I can only think it's the low SST's out to our west that is causing the problem.

Normally such low maximums in late June would be confined to days with heavy rainfall and polar source winds, neither has applied the last few days as can be seen by the much higher temperatures down south.

It's a shame those low SST's didn't occur in winter as it would have been snow shower heaven in any north westerly outbreaks.

Thanks Matty for recognising the crap weather up north, can I ask all southerners to do the same over the next two weeks as you sip cocktails at your BBQ's, it's nice to know you all care!

Andy

Yep, you northerners genuinely do have my sympathy. 

It's not exactly been balmy here the last two weeks, but it's been largely dry, often sunny, and pleasantly warm. Average decent summer conditions really, and it looks like continuing. 

The worst bit is it would only need comparatively fractional better Synoptics for a far greater proportion of the UK to enjoy, and if that were the case it would no doubt be hotter down here. 

Yes, that's what I thought.  

A classic chart this, snatched from the far reaches of the GFS 12z op run.

Very warm air piles across Europe from the subtropics in the 7-11 day range, which then stagnates, the heat building to severe levels across a large part of the continent. All while the UK sits on the periphery and endures changeable conditions, sometimes rather cool in the north! 

I'm glad that's a far-FI chart for numerous reasons... but the mechanism behind that severe heat over Europe makes a lot of sense based on what takes place in the 7-11 day range so it's worth taking note of I think.