I guess some of the models are looking good this evening 

Quite!  The prospects at the edge of sanity (144hours) are actually pretty decent and there should be less wailing and thrashing in this thread as the wealth of sunshine and warmth appears to spread its influence a little further N and W than of late

Here are the climate maxima for the regions in question (using Met Office data)

S England June maxima

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/averages/maps/southernengland/7100_1km/MaxTemp_Average_1971-2000_6.gif 

NW England June maxima

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/averages/maps/northwestengland/7100_1km/MaxTemp_Average_1971-2000_6.gif 

This looks promising for the south in particular, but beware the shallow disturbance evident only as a kink in the isobars over the Midlands. That feature brings a spell of rain and could hold temperatures down in the mid-teens at best wherever it tracks. Either side, warmer with some sunshine on offer - the far south could climb as high as 24*C based on similar output from the GFS' 12z op run.

A reduction in the westerly momentum later in the week from earlier model runs has given rise to the possibility that the ridge across Europe will tend to keep the southeastern third largely dry and warm, perhaps very warm at times, while it remains more changeable for the rest of the UK.

The procession of Atlantic lows running SW-NE throws a lot of subtropical air into Europe, which then stagnates and intensifies as I mentioned earlier when looking at the far reaches of the GFS run. We could in theory get a taste of that, but most model runs are keeping too much momentum to allow this, for example ECM at day 9:

If this sort of things verifies, I'm looking at a major heat plume drifting slowly toward me while I'm down in Minorca. What might 34*C 850hPa temperatures translate to at the surface I wonder? Obviously the sea keeps temperatures nearer 30*C along the coasts, but even on such a small island, the achievable temperatures rise a lot when moving inland - for example the central-northwestern region, which is very dry and sandy, soared to 36*C in early May this year, under uppers that were similar to those now being projected for 9-10 days time. The sun's input has increased fair a bit since then so who knows, 40*C on the cards?!

Whoops - rambling on about a place that is of no consequence for most of you viewing this post - my apologies  but if it makes you feel any better, that heat looks very uncomfortable, and I may not get much sleep toward the end of the month! 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JUNE 20TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Weak troughs will move East and SE across the UK today clearing to leave a developing ridge of High pressure across Southern Britain again while the North lies under a showery trough from off the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK weakening and breaking up through this week. Thereafter the flow buckles to more South to North or SW to NE orientationa across the UK strengthening again in Week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today always biasing the South for the better weather as a weak Westerly flow across the UK is maintained. A showery start to next week is then replaced by further showery troughs affecting the North at times while the South clings on to the better conditions with some warm sunshine and just isolated showers. Litttle changes in Week 2 with details irrelevant at this range but no dramatic weather shown for anywhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run preaches a similar pattern this morning with the North/South split even more enhanced with the added ingredient that the South at least could well become very warm and humid at times at through the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters still show the likelihood of High pressure out to the SW in two weeks time but this morning's crop of members largely suggest some greater influence of Low pressure to the North and NE on this morning's output.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a flat and slightly showery pattern in the early week but as Low pressure develops over the Atlantic it pumps up warm and humid conditions across Southern Britain from midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex array of weak troughs crossing the UK from the NW or West at times, each bringing their own version of more cloud and occasional mostly light rain or showers as they pass with some dry and bright weather for all too in between.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a sonewhat changeable period of weather over the next 10 days as shallow troughs and Lows continue to drift over the UK in a slack Westerly flow. A period of very warm and humid and largely dry weather is shown for the South though later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a similar slack westerly through the period with days alternating between dry and bright weather and slighly more unsettled conditions with a little rain or showers. once again the South could become warm and humid for a day or so soon after midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning is also showing a similar pattern with the showery early week conditions giving way to a period of warm or in the South very warm SW winds and then a return to somewhat cooler and changeable Westerly winds over the last few days of the run with some rain at times for all by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the NW with a SW flow across Britain with the most likely scenario from this being rain at times chiefly in the North and West with a fair amount of dry and warm weather between more occasional rain across the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today seem relatively weak with alternating patterns between fine and dry and slightly more unsettled conditions particularly in the North still foremost

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.7 too. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.5 pts with GFS at 83.7 pts and UKMO at 83.0 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.8 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.1 pts to 19.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Another set of output showing a generally flat pressure and weather pattern across the UK over the next few weeks. Conditions in any one place are determined where you are placed geographically acrosss the UK with 'South os best' looking the order of the periods weather. Of course there will be certain days which don't reflect this pattern as the synoptic pressure patterns driving our weather pattern are complex at the moment. High pressure remains close to the South at times and as well as bringing largely dry and fine conditions some very warm air could be drawn up across these regions for a time later next week. This will be interrupted by occasional cloudier days with some showers but a lot of fine weather overall should be maintained here. In the North more unsettled conditions are likely for more regular periods of time with rain at times and a cool breeze from the West. All in all a lot of benign conditions of weather to come with my overall opinion being one of 'OK and Useable' type of weather looking the most likely with the odd outbreak of rain or showers to moisten the gardens but no monsoon or heatwave in the forecast.

Next update from 08:00 Sunday June 21st 2015

Once we get Monday out of the way it looks like another very decent week for the South, and guess what? Areas a bit further north at times as well. 

Certainly seems that way Matty , low to mid 20's quite possible

The continuation of the north-south split continues.

This week has been lovely here with long sunny spells and light winds. With winds from an offshore NW'ly direction its been consistently warmish. In fact the temperature hasn't fallen below 14c here all week with afternoon temps around 21c. The warmer nights are bringing the garden along nicely now.

A warm day today with the chance of some thundery showers later..all good IMO 

Indeed. It must feel like those north of the midlands are living on a different continent to us. We had all the upstairs windows wide open last night as the house was warm. Sun is starting to break through the cloud again here now. Feels muggy. 

Not the best outlook according to the models, but there again not the worst either. At least they don't appear to be suggesting a repeat of the "summer" of 2012 or anything like that!

i know summer is imminent, my wife has this morning demanded the summer duvet be located! Another smashing morning here with long spells of strong sunshine here in Ramsgate.  The models are looking better the closer one is to that HP.  The models have been consistently poor beyond 144 and that seems the limit of their usefulness.

The wheel of fortune eventually turns for all.

 Many will recall IdJs posts from May and the early part of June where he was vocal in expressing his frustrations at the local conditions and few prospects of improvement.  Currently things are very pleasant but the wonderful thing about the British weather is that it is so changeable that those that are stuck in a rut can be sure that eventually they will be de-rutted.  Only occasionally does a deeper more miserable rut then appear, so,  mostly, changes for the better can be discerned.

Without meaning to sound like the endless moaner Doc you have 'benefited' by being on the east side of the Grampian Mountains sheltered from the endless west/north west wind.

In Cumbria May was exceptionally wet and cold with rainfall totals up to 200% in the Lake District, average temperatures in May were the lowest since 1996 with daytime temperatures the lowest since 1979 (12.6c in Penrith).

June hasn't been as wet but it's been very cool with mean temperatures now running (up to the 19th) 2c below normal.

So here the best description for the past 2 months weather would be 'exceptionally wet and cold', the term 'bit cooler than average' is an incorrect description for recent conditions across large parts of Cumbria, Lancashire, South West and West Scotland and probably Northern Ireland

The model outlook for the north during next week is slightly better as it should be a little warmer but any 'normal' summer conditions still elude us.

Andy

Very warm and humid here today. More on the way. 

ECM UKMO both decent the further S one is the closer to the influence of the Azores high, and there are signs of those south of the M4 corridor being able to tap into some higher uppers.  A spell of truly settled summery nationwide weather does appear to be eluding the UK at present.  I wonder if these charts will be  acceptable to northern brethren?

t144 UKMO                                                                                       168 ECM

The ECM 12z op run is an eye-opener as we see far less in the way of low pressure pushing E or NE through the UK. Day 11 would be exciting as the low to the southwest splits and potentially leaves a cut-off feature to the west of Iberia.

I would say more but Rush has started on C4 and I fancy a watch 

Tomorrow looks very uninspiring even in Southern England based on the GFS 18z op run which is similar to the previous few.

Yet we can find far more promising charts when looking at the latest high resolution HIRLAM run:

To be honest I find sunny skies a bit optimistic but I would happily take a halfway house between the two for cloud cover, which would probably lift temperatures up into the 17-19*C range for many.

HIRLAM has only slight cloud cover for 6-9am tomorrow while GFS is pretty much overcast, so it will be a significant pulling back of the curtains... although it's usually possible to tell as soon as you open your eyes based on how bright it is, unless you sleep in the depths of a cave or something 

Meanwhile at the longer range... the major plume edges closer on the GFS 18z op run:

The right-hand chart brings 30*C to the far south on what happens to be the day I return to the UK. Nice one, GFS.

A new ridge of high pressure from the west soon freshens things up for the UK, but the Spanish Plume just keeps on intensifying:

That's a pretty sensational plume, in the 24-28*C 850hPa temperature range for a large part of Spain and the whole of Portugal!

The extent of the heat across Europe is also extreme. This has appeared on a number of recent runs, most of them putting Europe in the oven while the UK enjoys a pleasant, air-conditioned apartment. 

Though the heat is more focused over Iberia in the GFS output, the situation over Europe is quite similar to this from 10 August 2003:

...which was the late stages of a heatwave that took many thousands of lives. The UK getting a new high temperature record was just a remarkable side-effect in many ways.

It's this similarity that drives me to pay such attention to such output when it starts appearing on more than just the occasional model run.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY JUNE 21ST 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A westerly airflow covers the UK today unsyable in the North and complicated by a warm frontal wave running East over Southern England tonight and at first tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK weakening and breaking up through this week. Thereafter the flow reasserts strength and influence across the South of the UK through Week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows complex slack synoptics under a weak Westerly flow this week delivering contrasting day to day variations in weather ranging from dry and bright and for a time very warm in the South to cloudier days when the odd outbreaks of rain or showers occur. The bias for the rain remains largely to the North. Through Week 2 further changeable conditions are shown in a slightly stronger Westerly with rain almost anywhere at times but still biased towards the North

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a largely South/North split in conditions throughout with the best of the warmth and sunshine across the South while the North remains more changeable with rain at times under an Atlantic feed. In Week 2 some very warm and humid conditions are shown across the South and East and this would likely trigger some sharp thundery downpours if these temperatures engage with any troughing from the West and NW by then.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters still show the likelihood of High pressure out to the SW or west in two weeks with a lot of dry weather but with some members shown a stronger NNW flow with some showers and a cool breeze although this view is still very much in the minority.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a warming up period for a time midweek as High pressure to the South feeds warm and humid air up across the South and East. The North and West looks a little cooler with a little rain too at times and a trough moving East later in the week could promote a few thundery downpours as it engages the muggy air in the SE before things settle down again later at the same time as it becomes fresher..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex array of weak troughs crossing the UK from the NW or West at times, each bringing their own version of more cloud and occasional mostly light rain or showers as they pass with some dry and bright weather for all too in between as High pressure builds towards the South at the middle of the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a classic Summer pattern across the UK with Low pressure to the North and NW especially later but with High pressure close to the South and East. As a result cloud and rain at times will affect the North and West at times while the South and East stay largely fine and bright and become very warm and humid at times with perhaps the odd thundery shower as weakening troughs feed down from the NW on occasion.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM still shows a High pressure ridge to the SW lying towards the South at times with slightly changeable Westerly winds featuring delivering occasional rain to the North while the South becomes largely dry and very warm for a time around the middle of this week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure becoming more established to the South of the UK at times feeding periods of warm and settled conditions across the South if rather humid soon after midweek. The North stays more changeable with occasional rain and rather less warm weather. This process is repeated several times up to Day 10 with a more thundery theme looking likely after Day 10 as Low pressure to the SW engages very warm and humid air over the South at that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the NW with a SW flow across Britain with the most likely scenario from this being rain at times chiefly in the North and West with a fair amount of dry and warm weather between more occasional rain across the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today are weak and inconclusive other than the fact that none of the output promotes anything dramatic over the period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.7 pts and GFS at 95.7 too. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.3 pts with GFS at 83.4 pts and UKMO at 82.4 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.4 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 30.5 pts to 20.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS This morning's output maintains the relatively quiet theme weatherwise across the UK for the next few weeks. The basic pattern remains for the bank of High pressure to the SW to persist but with a slight shift of orientation to the ridge further South than of late sufficient enough to help engage more very warm air at times up over Southern Britain from the SW through the period. It is hard to say whether this would mean sunny and sultry conditions or cloudy and humid but the chance of some very high temperatures in the South at times over the next few weeks is possible albeit with the proviso that the odd thunderstorm could break out as weak troughs from the West and NW engage the hot and humid air at times. The North and West of the UK look more traditionally characterized by slightly breezier conditions with rain at times and temperatures close to average but even here some warmth could spread up from the South at times. So all in all a very typical pattern for the time of year with a lot of benign but very acceptable weather for most with the South and East fairing best while the North and West have the biggest share of any rain that's going and even here some dry periods can be expected.

Next update from 08:00 Monday June 22nd 2015

Gibby - agree with that summary of current summery output.  Its worth mentioning too there is many a slip between cup and lip for south and west coasters as humid Tm air can be clag-ridden as we know AND there's always the threat of embedded fronts toppling over the weak ridge so its going to be a real mixed bag for all.