That looks like delivering 40C in France.

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Or more correctly, we are going to have warmer rain this week than we have seen so far this "summer"

So. Turns out that GFS was not far off with this morning's conditions here, but this afternoon has morphed into the HIRLAM solution!

 

The very large heat plume over Europe continues to feature on the GFS op runs so far today, with the 06z exploring a possible route to getting the UK involved - though only peripheral at best so escaping the worst of the heatwave over Europe. The ECM 00z op run is also setting up some serious continental heat.

What really stands out to me about the GFS runs is that the Atlantic pattern behaves very differently to what we've been seeing over the past couple of months at least, with low pressure tending to develop in the far-western N. Atlantic and push NE toward the Greenland/Iceland region, rather than developing near Iceland and advancing on the UK along a more NW-SE track.

This allows the Azores High to keep on extending ridges across us, each time placing a lid on the European heat - which allows it to stagnate and intensify further - before giving a window of opportunity for that heat to push north, during which a thundery low could pay us a visit before it settles back down from the southwest.

 

The ECM run deviated from this a bit beyond day 8, as the trough that pushed NE to Iceland managed to then move east despite being in the decaying stage, this largely down to the ridge failing to get much of a grip over the North Sea and surrounding area during the weekend. The day 10 chart is a real head-scratcher, is the weak low to our SW about to sweep NE or stall as a cut-off feature? I'd need a jet stream chart from that model to have much of an idea. Not that it matters with a chart so far ahead - the low could end up a thousand miles away or simply not exist in the first place!

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It certainly going to get hotter in Iberia next week..aemet (Spanish met) looking at up to 45c for Seville. 30c currently in punta prima hit 35c yesterday. Locals talking of heatwave from Friday.....hopefully some of the heat will filter northward to old Blighty.

The 12z GFS and UKMO ops are very close to tapping southern areas into some serious heat. It's so finely balanced it could just end up with a flatter pattern or something in between as currently projected. 

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Day 11 on the GFS 12z op run, and a shallow low develops on the periphery of the heat plume and results in a glancing blow from the hot weather with some thunderstorms breaking out but nothing special as the main potential is out over the North Sea... seems like a very realistic take on things 

Some phenomenal temperatures can be seen for much of France on this run, peaking on 2nd July:

...which is when I'm flying back to the UK from Minorca. There could be some epic thermals 

On a serious note, that spells trouble for the more vulnerable members of the population. 

 

 

Leading up to that, there's a lot of fine weather about after Monday morning's rain across the far south, with the southeast seeing the highest temperatures on most days, often climbing into the mid-20's.

On the other hand, it does turn more unsettled for the northwest Friday-Sunday, so the all too familiar NW-SW split showing its face again. Always a probably outcome based on climatology 

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Naturally the ECM has nothing to do with it. 

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Some incredible heat across Europe! Can we tap into it?

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

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Things shaping up nicely for the SE.  As per Met Office forecasts out to 6 days the  N and W will tend to be less settled and cooler.  As Tomasz just said on the beeb, all fairly typical, though I do feel its slightly better than I would expect IMBY and if I were north west of the midlands I d probably be feeling a little under changed.

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I noticed that he said "fairly typical" but I am not entirely sure how several degrees below or above what would typically be expected would be described as fairly typical. It is fairly typical across a swathe of England and warmer than average across the southeast and notably chilly (still) for some northern parts. Fairly typical is a lazy summary IMO. It may be typical if you average the temperature anomalies across the UK as a whole but for many it will be a good few degrees above or below average for quite a bit of the time.

Fairly typical would do just fine for me. Showing a high of 11°C for late June does does not fit that description. 

Rant over...for the moment. 

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There goes ECM using a small LP tracking almost as far south as The Azores to throw even more subtropical air into the pressure cooker that is most of NW Europe.

I can't help but wonder what would take place if that feature came along but with less momentum.

As it is, we have yet another model run placing the UK on the periphery of the heat plume. The usual +120 to +72 downgrades would leave us well clear of the troublesome temperatures - so the big question is, which way does the trend take us before it gets into that range?

Anybody headed for Madrid in 10 days time...?! 

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Let's just face it this country is in the wrong place for any sustained heat, our "hot " spells are usually three hot days and a thunderstorm if we're lucky (the storm that is).

Average temperature in Penrith now 2c below June average (1st to 21st), that isn't 'typical' summer weather Tom!

Not sure how much more of this north/south divide I can stand.

And

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N/S divide does no good for the south too as we get limited settled weather and denying us of a real heatwave.  I always a huge supporter of nationwide heatwaves which last much longer and sustained.  You can see the latest models show how hot in France while here only just a little over average then sudden temps down to low to mid teens from midlands northward.  That the nasty N/S split operates so they need to go away and to allow the heat to spread in widely.  This was a common thing in the 80's and 90's.  A quote 3 days and a thunderstorm I strongly believe mean high temps of 30-34C for 3 days before the storms come in, prior to that should normal sunny days and rising temps daily before the 3 days heat commence nationwide.  

Hope the models will upgrade the heat to be nationwide and give a north a break with some welcome normal summery hot spells they needed.  

GEM loses the plot - 20C uppers into northern England.

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So close to record heat . 25c uppers just 200miles away.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

 

Nice end end to the ECM though with high pressure building to our East and the heat ready to push back in.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

 

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These images are over a week away, so cannot be relied upon, if they were less than 3 days away then maybe a little excitement may creep in, but as we have seen before they can and do change on the flip of a coin.

GFS & ECM have both shown on several runs for a few days now a build of heat across Europe now as to whether that reaches our shores is another matter but its good to get the heat into Europe as we can tap into it at some point .

Here is my latest report on the soundings of the five most powerful weather computers in the world, namely GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECMas at the 00z reports on the 22nd June 2015.
 
Sorry unable to provide links this morning.
 
The General Situation A trough of Low pressure will clear Southern England this morning followed by a UK wide ridge of High pressure tonight and tomorrow.
 
Models 2 week Headline Rather changeable with some rain at times in the North and West but some fine and in places very warm weather especially in the SE.
 
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast Todays Jet stream Forecast shows the flow currently blowing SE or South across the Uk weakens away over the next 24-36hrs. It then changes orientation to flow SW to NE across the UK later this week and through next as an Atlantic depression throws a ridge of High pressure across France and the Low Countries.
 
GFS Operational Todays GFS run shows a lot of High pressure just to the South of the UK with Low pressure out to the NW and in the Eastern Atlantic. Some warm and humid weather will be popular in the South where a lot of dry weather is likely. However, Low pressure will make inroads into the South at times from the SW giving the risk of thundery showers at times as it engeages the warm air before cooling things down temporarily. In the North and West more changeable conditions are shown with rain at times and closer to average temperatures.
 
GFS Control Run In theory today's Control Run replicates the operational in theme with the traditional Summer pattern of a NW/SE split with warm and humid weather in the SE while the North and West see the biggest share of rain at times while the South and East see the best dry and fine weather where it will often feel warm and at times very warm and humid.
 
The GFS Clusters A complex array of options shown within the options today with a 30% chance of High pressure lying to the West and another 30% with a ridge to the South while the other 40% is made up of options of allowing Atlantic fronts to cross the UK from the West or NW with rain at times.
 
UKMO shows High pressure in control later this week. After a few very warm and humid days in the South a cold front crossing SE will bring a cooler day or so at the start of next weekend before warm and humid air is pumped back up across Southern Britain by the end of the weekend. The NW continues more changeable with occasional rain on a SW flow.
 
The Fax Charts The Fax Charts show things improving across the South later this week as High pressure builds in from the South. The NW continue to see troughs of Low pressure from off the Atlantic continuing to deliver cloud and occasional spells of rain at times.
 
GEM GEM today has an enhanced version of SE is best and NW worst as the next 10 days weather unfolds. High pressure close to the SE will continue to flirt hot air from Europe across SE Britain but it never extends much into other areas with a warm and moist SW flow delivering rain at times to the NW and the occasional thundery type of weather which could occur further East and South as weak Atlantic troughs hit the very warm air in the Southeast on occasion.
 
NAVGEM NAVGEM also keeps the warmest weather the other side of the channel this morning over the coming week. Nevertheless the South and East will see a rise in temperatures and humidity later this week and coupled with some dry and bright weather it will feel very pleasant. Further North and West a more definitive westerly flow is shown due to Low pressure to the North and troughs of Low pressure crossing east could give some rain at times, a little of which could make it's way down into the South at times.
 
ECM ECM too shows hot air developing over Europe later this week and being maintained thereafter. The UK will be right on the boundary of this and the SE may tap into it on occasion but in general it stays the other side of the channel with the North and West of the UK in particular affected by fresher Atlantic winds with occasional rain at times which could extend further South and East at times.
 
ECM 10 Day Chart The ECM 10 day chart from last night shows shallow Low pressure up to the NW with warm air wafting close to Southern Britain in a light SW flow. Some thunder showery rain would be likely in this setup.
 
Notable Trend Changes From Previous Runs Not much change in the overall pattern this morning with the NW/SE split still very much likely in 10-14 days this morning.
 
31 Day Historical Variation Stats for GFS, UKMO and ECM The current verification Stats for up to the last 31 days show ECM the best at 3 days on 95.6 pts while GFS and UKMO share 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads at 85.6 pts while GFS comes in second at 83.1 pts and then UKMO at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM leads with 49.5 with GFS at 44.7 pts. Finall at 10 days ECM leads the way at 31.4 pts with GFS at 21.1 pts.
 
My Thoughts  The weather pattern is about to change somewhat as the NW influence of winds which have restricted higher temperatures for so long despite the largely dry conditions change to a more SW flow in the next few days. That's not to say that the UK is about to experience wall to wall summer sunshine and temperatures in the 80's every day as there still looks too much Atlantic influence for a lot of the UK keeping the very warmest conditions towards the far SE of England and more likely across Europe where some serious heat is possible with time. Nevertheless, with a SW breeze most of the UK can expect some better temperatures than of late and with a lot of dry weather in the SE it will feel very summery here. Further North and West stronger breezes will carry a lot of moist air across with some thick cloud and rain at times and it is conceivable that from time to time these disturbances will move into the very warm air in the SE with the risk of thundery showers for a time before the pattern resets. Looking longer term changes look to be slow with a continuing NW/SE split with perhaps a period of more notable unsettled conditions for many but at the range shown this by far from certain. So a classic summer pattern to come with the best weather towards the SE but nowhere looks like seeing a rainfest with even the North seeing respectable conditions on occasion between the fronts

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The General Situation A trough of Low pressure will clear Southern England this morning followed by a UK wide ridge of High pressure tonight and tomorrow.

Sorry unable to provide links this morning.

Models 2 week Headline A lot of fine and dry weather in the South and East where it could become very warm at times. Cooler and more changeable in the North and West with rain at times.

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast Todays Jet stream Forecast shows the flow currently blowing SE or South across the Uk weakens away over the next 24-36hrs. It then changes orientation to flow SW to NE across the UK later this week and through next as an Atlantic depression throws a ridge of High pressure across France and the Low Countries.

GFS Operational Todays GFS run shows a lot of High pressure just to the South of the UK with Low pressure out to the NW and in the Eastern Atlantic. Some warm and humid weather will be popular in the South where a lot of dry weather is likely. However, Low pressure will make inroads into the South at times from the SW giving the risk of thundery showers at times as it engeages the warm air before cooling things down temporarily. In the North and West more changeable conditions are shown with rain at times and closer to average temperatures.

GFS Control Run In theory today's Control Run replicates the operational in theme with the traditional Summer pattern of a NW/SE split with warm and humid weather in the SE while the North and West see the biggest share of rain at times while the South and East see the best dry and fine weather where it will often feel warm and at times very warm and humid.

The GFS Clusters A complex array of options shown within the options today with a 30% chance of High pressure lying to the West and another 30% with a ridge to the South while the other 40% is made up of options of allowing Atlantic fronts to cross the UK from the West or NW with rain at times.

UKMO shows High pressure in control later this week. After a few very warm and humid days in the South a cold front crossing SE will bring a cooler day or so at the start of next weekend before warm and humid air is pumped back up across Southern Britain by the end of the weekend. The NW continues more changeable with occasional rain on a SW flow.

The Fax Charts The Fax Charts show things improving across the South later this week as High pressure builds in from the South. The NW continue to see troughs of Low pressure from off the Atlantic continuing to deliver cloud and occasional spells of rain at times.

GEM GEM today has an enhanced version of SE is best and NW worst as the next 10 days weather unfolds. High pressure close to the SE will continue to flirt hot air from Europe across SE Britain but it never extends much into other areas with a warm and moist SW flow delivering rain at times to the NW and the occasional thundery type of weather which could occur further East and South as weak Atlantic troughs hit the very warm air in the Southeast on occasion.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also keeps the warmest weather the other side of the channel this morning over the coming week. Nevertheless the South and East will see a rise in temperatures and humidity later this week and coupled with some dry and bright weather it will feel very pleasant. Further North and West a more definitive westerly flow is shown due to Low pressure to the North and troughs of Low pressure crossing east could give some rain at times, a little of which could make it's way down into the South at times.

ECM ECM too shows hot air developing over Europe later this week and being maintained thereafter. The UK will be right on the boundary of this and the SE may tap into it on occasion but in general it stays the other side of the channel with the North and West of the UK in particular affected by fresher Atlantic winds with occasional rain at times which could extend further South and East at times.

ECM 10 Day Chart The ECM 10 day chart from last night shows shallow Low pressure up to the NW with warm air wafting close to Southern Britain in a light SW flow. Some thunder showery rain would be likely in this setup.

Notable Trend Changes From Previous Runs Not much change in the overall pattern this morning with the NW/SE split still very much likely in 10-14 days this morning.

31 Day Historical Variation Stats for GFS, UKMO and ECM The current verification Stats for up to the last 31 days show ECM the best at 3 days on 95.6 pts while GFS and UKMO share 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads at 85.6 pts while GFS comes in second at 83.1 pts and then UKMO at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM leads with 49.5 with GFS at 44.7 pts. Finall at 10 days ECM leads the way at 31.4 pts with GFS at 21.1 pts.

My Thoughts  The weather pattern is about to change somewhat as the NW influence of winds which have restricted higher temperatures for so long despite the largely dry conditions change to a more SW flow in the next few days. That's not to say that the UK is about to experience wall to wall summer sunshine and temperatures in the 80's every day as there still looks too much Atlantic influence for a lot of the UK keeping the very warmest conditions towards the far SE of England and more likely across Europe where some serious heat is possible with time. Nevertheless, with a SW breeze most of the UK can expect some better temperatures than of late and with a lot of dry weather in the SE it will feel very summery here. Further North and West stronger breezes will carry a lot of moist air across with some thick cloud and rain at times and it is conceivable that from time to time these disturbances will move into the very warm air in the SE with the risk of thundery showers for a time before the pattern resets. Looking longer term changes look to be slow with a continuing NW/SE split with perhaps a period of more notable unsettled conditions for many but at the range shown this by far from certain. So a classic summer pattern to come with the best weather towards the SE but nowhere looks like seeing a rainfest with even the North seeing respectable conditions on occasion between the fronts.

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Do feel sorry for you up there, even in Saturday's rain down here it was warm!  Have relatives up in the north west and when I have been there in high Summer it's like late April down here...

Good to see we are teased just as much in Summer as we are in Winter with the extreme air masses always seeming to be just across the channel - if that is sucked northwards though that would easily push temperatures into the low 30s in the South and maybe the mid - high 20s further north. Hopefully we'll get some good thundery action on the edge of it - more runs needed before we know how this is going to play out.

Any heat/thundery plumes will be pushed to the east of us its standard procedure when it comes to the UK!

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This is the thing about major heat plumes across NW Europe - they nearly always develop a 'heat low' which can overcome the Atlantic and bring a burst of hot temperatures to the UK. It's all about the exact positioning though, something that usually takes until the last minute to pin down.

On rare occasions, high pressure retains control across the UK while that hot air gets wrapped in, which is what can lead to extended heatwaves - not much sign of that at the moment although the GFS 00z does have a go later in lower-res.

That GFS run has found a way to push that heat away from us for a time at least, by having the day 7-8 secondary low in the Atlantic far enough north to engage with the jet stream and develop enough of a circulation to deliver a blast of westerlies to the UK. 

ECM's having none of that so I continue to keep a wary eye on that heat plume building. The GFS 18z op run of yesterday was similar and that resulted in 34*C being shown IMBY for 3rd July, following 30-32*C widely across S. England on the previous day.

 

Fascinating times for model watching, almost makes me regret leaving the UK for 10 days! Maybe there will be an internet café somewhere... 

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You're probably right but with Means this warm we could be heading for a significant heatwave.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

 

 

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What usually seems to happen here is as we head toward this, the pattern gets flattened out and rather than a glancing blow, it ends up nowhere near here down over Southern Europe. Be interesting to see if that happens this time. 

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