It's the summer equivalent of -16C uppers over Central & Southern England in the winter. 

No, let's hope it hits us smack on. Nothing much better than stifling heat and humidity, but then I can never understand why people get excited at cold charts in winter. Who wants to be cold???? Each to their own at the end of the day. 

Our kids are off next Monday (teacher training). The missus is off anyway, but I'm pondering taking the day off as well to take us all to a theme park. No point if it's going to be wet. Looking at the models is as much use as using seaweed & pine cones - GFS has us under a nice ridge; ECM with a big low smack back over us. That's the latest run, anyway. By this time tomorrow, no doubt they'll have both flipped arseaboutways.

That's what I f***ing hate most about the summer weather in this country - the unpredictability, meaning you can't plan anything in advance.

This. You'll never get me to buy into the idea that because our climate is so varied it is interesting. It might be varied, but it's almost always within the margins of mediocrity of every single type. If it's sunny it's just average. If it snows it's generally the sort of amounts that would make genuinely snowy countries laugh. The only thing we do get loads of is rain, but then Charmhills wants it to rain during summer on the off chance we may get one of also totally mediocre thunderstorms. 

All ranting aside, after a crap start it's been another largely sunny and warm day again here. 

Decent convective outbreaks during the summer months along with periods of warm weather, cold and snow during winter months if its at all possible!

Which of course it isn't in this country.

Really wandering off topic now, but I really cannot think of a worse climate than ours. What really puts the final nail in the coffin for me is come winter of summer here, we are almost always on the periphery of interesting weather, and that's almost always where it seems to stay. Our positioning next to this stupid Atlantic has everything to answer for 

Yes,but sometimes just sometimes we get lucky and hit the jackpot.Remember the summers of 1976,1983,1995,2003,2006 and as recently as 2013,well for 3 weeks in July. When we do `get lucky` it makes it all the more special and we WILL get a blazing summer again one year,its just unpredictable as to when.

I would love to experience another long hot summer where its 30c+ for weeks on end

Personally, I can take or leave extreme heat. Horrible for sleeping or working in. 

Extreme heat? Any noticeable heat would be nice! Looking t the 12z GFS and with a high of 10°C forecast for here on Wednesday (by the latest BBC national forecast) things are almost beyond a joke. I'm beginning to think the Falklands summer weather couldn't be much worse than this!

Actually, I take back what I said about useful rain .... looking again I cant see much down here at all in the next 2 weeks unless we get a plume and some thunderstorms .....

Any chance of sending some of your rain south Doc? 

For us weather enthusiasts, certainly - but the UK's climate is pretty good for human habitation and crop cultivation, with a near lack of extreme heat or  cold and enough rain but not too much.

I can think of many worse climates though - climates that are either perpetually hot or cold, like Miami or Svalbard.

The SE seems to be good at catching a watered down version of Europe's weather... a number of days reaching the mid-20's in the near future.

A crucial period for any plume event reaching the UK is in 6 to 7 days time, as a shortwave low near the Azores interacts with a longwave trough to the west of the UK. It seems to be that for the biggest taste of the plume, the shortwave has to track far south enough to avoid merging with the longwave, potentially stalling to the SW of the UK in the most extreme scenario.

Whether attempt number one works out or not, the broad-scale pattern favours further bites of the apple later on in time. The fact that GFS tries again twice in lower-res despite the Atlantic having rather more westerly momentum than seems reasonable (just look at the trough in 8 days time... so flabby!) is a sign of this bRoad-scale support.

The key period for attempt number two looks to be as the shortwave low exits to the NE, as this naturally leads to a further pressure rise over Europe, which could reverse the drift east of the plume and bring it back in our direction.

ECM sets things up well on day 10 - too far out to take all that seriously of course, but a realistic outcome in my view - unless attempt number one manages to go the whole hog, that is:

GFS doesn't manage to achieve much due to the longwave trough hanging around too close to our shores as it fades out. This could easily take place without any upstream trough (SW of Iceland on the above chart) to encourage retrogression of the one near to the UK as the two combine.

So lots of pieces that need to fall in place if we are to see much of a plume event, though I do think this is one of those 'be careful what you wish for' situations, as from what I can see over Europe, a direct hit would have the potential to threaten the high temperature record set on 10 August 2003.

Back then, the heatwave got underway under Europe some time before it first started influencing the UK - which is how it usually plays out.

Okay, the time has come - I'm signing off until 3rd July, Minorca here I come! 

p.s. 1st July looks a bit toasty down there. I'm going to have to stock up on water big time!

Top post SC, well informed and evidenced as usual.  Thanks.  Agree regarding the SE, looks like a hefty proportion of the British population will get some decent summer weather with maxes of  25c or not far off on a daily basis from Thursday.

Going on what the Beeb say , there is very little confidence in the mid range forecasts till the outcome of ex tropical storm Bill mingling with the cold N. Atlantic is decided so anything beyond a few days is pretty iffy at the moment.

Blimey, the 18z GFS really cranks up the heat next week....really high uppers tantalisingly close too.

Will probably be shunted off eastwards again, but shows what is possible for a Matty H heatfest.

Personally I think the flattening out I was talking about earlier has already started to show its hand.  Way too early to be taken as gospel of course.  We will see, but I'm expecting nothing more than a glancing blow to the SE. The potential to remain, but not currently realised. I base this on nothing else but current output and the last few weeks. 

A common theme - as happens with northerlies in winter

Looks like that spanish plume is getting pushed east next week already, we may get two hot/very warm days here at a push, then that's it for a while.

July starts on a scorcher according to GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21017.gif

Plume ensemble watch begins. A few hot ones for the far SE.

looks like being 20c+ in my garden for the foreseeable future, with little in the way of rain (sorry plants!). Normal summer weather, with maybe the odd hot day but nothing cold, wet or windy