These outputs need to be treated with the same degree of healthy scepticism as would a beasterly-easterly in December.  Could happen though,  as you say, it is the operational output.  No doubt the premature moment the Express goes to print with predictions of 90F the whole event will become a humid one day wonder. 

Its all worth keeping an eye on but who would chose to believe charts at 168 hours will verify?

Agreed. It's just as likely the next run will have a flat pattern again with the plume missing to the east. 

Might be worth noting, for anyone that views the so called lesser models such as GEM and JMA, they have been showing scenarios like that ECM for a while now. 

I think the JMA has been pretty decent in our neck of the woods of late.  Will be worth seeing what it is showing for next week come the 12zs tomorrow.

Agreed we'd be very lucky to get that ECM to happen but the output across the board this morning has improved so reasons to be optimistic.

Not only hot and humid but some big storms in there to.

If the ECM 00z is to be believed.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 24TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm front will cross NE over Scotland and Northern Ireland today with a ridge affecting the South and East of England persisting.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, bright and possibly very warm weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some thundery showers in places especially in the West and North at first and again later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a very weak and broken flow at the moment. Through the coming days the flow rejuvenates across the Uk from the West as pressure falls towards the weekend. A deep atlantic trough takes the flow well South over the Atlantic and then returns it North across the UK next week before flattening the flow again more towards a SW to NE flow near the UK again by the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today looks rather complex over the two weeks with High pressure to the South and Low to the North with fine weather alternating with spells of rain between now and the start of next week. High pressure then shifts more to the East or NE next week allowing winds to back SE with some very warm air followed by a thundery breakdown later before the end of the run returns to a changeable pattern with the most unsettled conditions returning towards the North at times but some rain for all on occasion.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very similar to the operational this morning ending on a very unsettled note with Low pressure positioned right over the heart of the UK.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show strong support for High pressure to lie out to the SW of the UK in two weeks time with West to NW winds carrying bands of rain and showers across the UK from off the Atlantic in average temperatures.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows changeable conditions over the coming 3-4 days with a couple of bands of rain crossing East over the UK on Friday and Sunday before pressure builds to the South early next week with fine and eventually very warm weather likely to return by the moddle of next week..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex system of troughs moving East on Friday and another crop later on Sunday with some rain for all at times between periods of pleasantly warm spells with some sunshine especially across the South.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today is probably the most disappointing of the set as it shows much changeable weather in a South or SW flow across the Uk with some dry, fine and warm spells alternating with some rainbands crossing east and some thundery weather too next week as fronts and lows engage hot air over Europe. The end of the run for the end of next week shows continued changeable conditions and rather cooler air at times too affecting much of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a changeable theme up to the early days of next week before pressure builds to the South and later the East with a warm, humid Southerly flow delivering some thundery showers to the West and SW in a week or so time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the battle between increasingly hot High pressure over Europe next week and more changeable conditions trying to push into the UK from off the Atlantic. On this run the resultant warm and eventually very warm and humid weather on a Southerly breeze wafts North across the UK bringing the risk of thundery showers to the far West and South at times with some very high temperatures possible towards the East, all this following a changeable and at times cooler 3-4 days at the end of this week and the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure close to the NW with a SW flow across the UK but very warm and humid conditions near the SE perhaps with thunder.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today show a chance of a plume developing close to or just to the East of the UK next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.7 pts with GFS at 83.0 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.6 over 46.3. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.3 pts to 22.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS No one can deny that the synoptics are interesting at the moment as we are currently entering a battle between the Atlantic and Europe over the next week or so which of course in Winter could be much more interesting to most than is at this time of year but none the less a battle may be no less significant. As it stands the next 3-4 days look like being changeable with a couple of spells of rain spliced by drier and pleasantly warm weather though fresher for a time than currently at the weekend. Next week then shows pressure building from the South and it's as this edges to the East and SE of the Uk that very warm and even hot air is wafted North principally over Europe but also to some degree across the UK. Leaving GEM aside who prefer cooler and more changeable conditions throughout it's run all the rest show next weeks rise of pressure as strong and some have made enough correction West today to allow most of England and Wales to come under it's effects. GFS in both it's runs take High pressure all the way to Scandinavia later creating a block to the Atlantic. Even if this doesn't occur all areas should become warm or very warm at times next week though with the Atantic nibbling away at the very warm air there is likely to be some potentially very thundery weather developing at times which at this range is very difficult to pinpoint exactly where and when. This morning if I had to pick a most likely location for this I would say the extreme West and South of Britain but this could change depending on any future correction East of the extent of the warmth from Europe. So as indicated at the start it looks like an interesting time to come with finally some very warm temperatures expected for quite a few but particularly towards the SE. Some rain is possible at times in the first few days but more locally later as the inevitable push from the Atlantic attempts to dislodge the warmth and humidity.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 25th 2015

That'll do me, Martin. Hot push of air and any showers confined to the extreme west and south. 

Long way off though. What is certain, for here anyway, is this has been a really good start to summer no matter what happens. 

Lets hope so Duane

It has here Matty also and very dry.

Happy wih temps as they are 21-24c............................no doubt you want 15c on top of those.

France would absolutely bake with that. Can't remember seeing 25c uppers so far north this early in the Summer?

Might be my eyes but do I see 20c uppers heading towards Scotland there?!?

Yep. That's a very over the top run I think...

GFS 6z op also showing the heat making inroads. 

12z GFS op looks like keeping the theme as we head into next week. 

Oh I am absolutely loving the 12z GFS op! If only!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.gif

Heat building from GFS , looks a decent week next week for sure

ECM trickling out appears to keep the theme. Dare I say edging towards a more stable spell as well, as in less showers? Would be superb. 

A million miles out yet though, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if by this time next week it ended up being the glancing blow to the SE that was originally projected. 

Long way to go yet, but time will tell. 

Edit: in fact the ECM 168z chart is heading toward sheer lunacy  

You're not wrong there. Some seriously hot weather pumping up! What a run this is turning out to be  Good to see some agreement as well, lets just hope it doesn't get watered down/shunted east.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Ouch!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

Clearly a trend amongst the Ops... as ever, more run needed.

A very good ECM as well then. Hot for a short while as well. 

Some sustained warmth / heat without those pesky thundery showers would do nicely. There is nothing worse than a sky littered with decayed French MCS's on days when there real heat aloft.

Lets get a week of dry and hot weather under our belts before worrying about the wet stuff. 

Much better model runs generally today for the UK as a whole, hopefully it'll be the start of a trend. I have had a hunch, and nothing more than a hunch, the as long as the LP that contains the remains of TS Bill is held out in the atlantic, there is a chance of a rise in pressure to the east/north-east.