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picturesareme
25 June 2015 15:03:28
The reality of it is that 'official' stations are relatively scattered, and in by gone decades/centuries most likely fewer in numbers. I suspect that 40C has been reached on these shores at least a handful of times in last 500 years.
Gooner
25 June 2015 15:09:19

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22817.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn25217.gif


Some decent heat for a few, cooler on Sunday into  but still warm


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn25217.gif


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


eddied
25 June 2015 15:13:37

Meanwhile, for those waiting for summer, it's been a glorious day across the South and 25 - 26c. That feels just fine under the late June sun. 


Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
Quantum
25 June 2015 15:35:14

I thought I would add that 40C is not the limit; in fact somewhere near 80C may be.


And no that wasn't a conversion mistake, I'm being deadly serious.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_burst


This extremely rare atmospheric phenomenon aside though, anything approaching 37C I think is unlikely because the wind is too moist.



August 2003 was high pressure dominated, and a cold front to the west helped draw up the plume right from Africa. Dry and very warm air already setup in nearby France helped the effort. 


With this warm snap, the air is extremely unstable. I might be wrong, but I think the heat is unlikely to be the headline story, and the storms in fact will be. 


And with the setup being so explosive, a lack of wall to wall dry sunshine makes me wonder whether we will have much chance of getting past the low thirties.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
25 June 2015 16:05:26

Think you'll be hard pressed to find another chart in the archives where both the -5C and 25C line were both simultaneously this close to the UK.


 


Netweather GFS Image


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Matty H
25 June 2015 16:09:29

12 GFS trickling out and approaching the critical timeframe. 


Arcus
25 June 2015 16:24:03
Yes, the daughter low doesn't develop as quickly or deeply on the 12z, which has the effect of rooting the whole merged system further east and pushing the plume east before it really gets going. Was always an option on the ensemble set (and was alluded to in the MetO forecast update), so just goes to show that it would be unwise to predict what might happen at this range.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Gooner
25 June 2015 16:32:32

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.gif


12pm on Friday and hot weather is there for some.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19817.gif


Blistering in the evening


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Arcus
25 June 2015 16:36:41
... but then the plume has another shot at it Fri/Sat. A more unstable run, for sure, with more potential for TSTMs
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Charmhills
25 June 2015 16:37:06


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.gif


12pm on Friday and hot weather is there for some.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19817.gif


Blistering in the evening


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


That is hot!


The heat comes back quickly in fi to along with the risk of more storms for the south.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2015 16:43:21

LOL GFS 12z now has 36c on Friday. Another scorchio run especially for the East.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
picturesareme
25 June 2015 16:50:08
It's always likely to end up being shifted east, it's the natural way for out Islands. It happens in the winter, and will happen in the summer.
LeedsLad123
25 June 2015 16:52:22
36C in Kent but 23C here on Friday next week would be a rather large difference. Kind of annoyed with that, lol.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Charmhills
25 June 2015 17:08:45



The Met/o 12z somewhat different out to Wednesday.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Matty H
25 June 2015 17:13:20

Yes, this was the concern I highlighted first thing this morning after NAVGEM and GEM went to this sort of scenario after being totally on board last night. 


By no means sorted yet and there will be twists and turns, but the fragility of this setup is blatant. 


Andy Woodcock
25 June 2015 17:15:59

Just logged on after a rain soaked trip to Scotland and the hype on here is amazing!

I just don't buy next weeks heat wave, the models are all over the place, the MetO outlook is downbeat and most of us north of Manchester would be glad to see 20c never mind 35c!

At least we have lost that nagging north west wind, although at the moment it's only been replaced but a slightly milder (but moister) south westerly.

Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Muckyme
25 June 2015 17:22:01

GEM still gives a spell of very hot if not extreme weather this evening but looks a bit out of kilter with the other models



 


GFS still has some hot weather around but the ensembles are downgrading the heat through today.


 


Central England.


 


Diagramme GEFS

picturesareme
25 June 2015 17:28:38
If I was to put a bet on it I would say that somewhere will see 31-32C at some point next week.

I would say this is most likely to be in the favoured spots such as London, North Kent, Surrey or around the Solent region.

I think there will still be a couple of days of mid to high 20's across the bulk of England away from the far north.
Matty H
25 June 2015 17:32:14


Just logged on after a rain soaked trip to Scotland and the hype on here is amazing!

I just don't buy next weeks heat wave, the models are all over the place, the MetO outlook is downbeat and most of us north of Manchester would be glad to see 20c never mind 35c!

At least we have lost that nagging north west wind, although at the moment it's only been replaced but a slightly milder (but moister) south westerly.

Andy


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


The models really are not all over the place at all. What's key here is we are on the cusp of the heat and minor difference make a big difference to us. 


Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2015 17:43:33
Matty H
25 June 2015 17:46:32

It's an obvious statement, but it'll be interesting to see what ECM deals us. I'm going to guess at something similar to the GFS


Quantum
25 June 2015 17:50:53

Well that's something you don't see everyday.



2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
eddied
25 June 2015 18:07:50


Well that's something you don't see everyday.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


that a 37c isotherm running through Kent?


Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
Brian Gaze
25 June 2015 18:15:06

Some of the GEFS12z are crazy...



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
25 June 2015 18:30:10


 


 


that a 37c isotherm running through Kent?


Originally Posted by: eddied 


yep, somewhere in the vicinity of Brogdale. These maps always undercook the max by a couple of degrees...


Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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