Yep, mentioned that on the last page. This is a long long way from nailed on by any stretch. 

GFS 06z so far looking hot and humid with storms breaking out across the south by 162hs onwards.

30c across the south to.

It did, and summer history is littered with failed plumes. It's the summer equivalent of winter's phantom easterly. 

It does look look like a warm up (already warm here and has been for weeks, but for other areas) of sorts is coming. The detail is not at all clear yet though. 

GFS 6z going for 36c in London next Thursday! Then 34c for the following Saturday insanely hot run.

That would be so close for record breaker for uk July 36.5 °C at Wisley (19 July 2006).

uppers were

Thanks for posting looks like uppers were at least a couple of degrees lower back then. So the July record well and truly on and even the all time record must be up for grabs if we get uppers above 20c.

Yes, interesting times. It has been a pretty decent spring/summer so far and a cracking heat wave when we're barely into July would make it even better!

iPhone weather app is already giving 31C here by Thursday next week. Not sure which output it uses, it's from Yahoo weather I think.

I only see a 35C - although that might be a little blob of pink?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1804.gif

The 850s on the GFS 6z are similar to that of August 9th/10th 2003 when we got the record 38.5c in Kent. 

Agreed Matty. It's to some extent easier to tap into a big pool of heat than it is to tap into a cold pool in winter, though, as (a) it tends to be bigger and (b) it only has to blow up from the south rather than coming back east totally against the natural flow.

I think the 35C runs are a bit over the top but I think we have a decent chance of seeing 30C+ next week. Things are almost always less extreme than the models suggest a week ahead. A -15C (850pa) easterly blast tends to turn into a -10C waft, and this 22C air is more likely to be in the 17-18C range if and when it appears. 

But with these synoptics and that especially hot air down to the south there is still a chance of seeing something rather exceptional. It just, as always, needs the stars to align for us...

it is difficult to see but if you zoom right in on mitteleuropa 0.25 Wetterzentrale at 180h there are two 36c points one in London and one in North Kent.

Remember that was after week's of hot weather already though.

I suspect we could get to 35c with what the charts are showing but think we'll struggle to go to 38c+

Anyway, here's today's video update;

Heatwave possible Next Week;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

90f+ with some VERY impressive charts but a note of caution

Does anyone know what the record 850mb temperature is for the UK? The GFS 6z has 22C+ next Thursday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1712.gif

We would have seen 4 days of hot weather by next Thursday though and if and its a massive if at the moment, we get 22c uppers which the gfs 6z has and its sunny then I think 37c/38c is on.

As far as I'm aware August 9th/10th 2003 is the record when 22c uppers were reached.

outstanding 6zgfs mean even Jires would be happy with that

I do have more confidence in this plume than others looking at the reasonably strong build of high pressure to our east.

Now I just need to decide whether to book Wednesday & Thursday off, or Thursday and Friday?

Interesting that the previous record, 37.1C in 1990, was seemingly set with uppers no higher than about 18C 

(this map is for the following night)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1990/Rrea00219900804.gif

Two days before that record, the 850s were only about 12C over Cheltenham. So you don't need days of heat beforehand.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1990/Rrea00219900801.gif

I wonder after having read some of these posts whether 25C or even 30C uppers here in the UK is possible and what sort of daytime maxs might be possible if that was the case.

I don't know but think there's a good chance of many of us living to see 40C recorded in the UK.

Crazily, according to Trevor Harley, 40c may have occurred as far back as 1808;

"1808 There was a memorable heatwave in the middle of the month, particularly affecting the east of the countrry. The spell included "Hot Wednesday": 13 July might have been hotter than any day of the twentieth century. Estimates suggest that it reached 100F, and might well have reached 40C (105F) in places in southern England. There were many heat-related deaths. It was an extraordinary heatwave, concluding with intense thunderstorms on St. Swithins Day. A fireball was noted travelling through Gloucester Cathedral, and destroyed one of the pinnacles at the West End. The 15th saw what was probably the most severe hailstorm to affect the southwest; a 95 km swath was damaged between Bath and Bristol, with 70 mm hailstones, touching perhaps 100 mm in places, causing great damage. Indeed, some in Somerset were reported to be over a foot long (at 333 mm). It was a hot month overall: at 18.4C CET, there would not be a better one until 1921."

http://www.trevorharley.com/trevorharley/weather_web_pages/british_weather_in_july.htm

Given that, what's surprising is that 40c hasn't happened more recently... I think August 2003 could have got there if that heatwave had carried on another 24 to 48hrs.