HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 26TH 2015.
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening cold front will move East over the UK today with a ridge of High pressure building across the UK tonight and tomorrow.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming very warm next week with some thundery showers especially in the South and East. Cooler in the NW.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow expected to blow East across the UK over the coming days up to and including the weekend. The flow then ridges North over Britain at the same time as troughing South over the Atlantic setting up a Northerly moving jet just to the West of the UK later next week before a return to a stronger more SW to NE flow across the UK at the end of the period.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows several more days of changeable conditions with occasional rain from troughs moving East interspersed by dry and fine weather. Then pressure builds from the South and SE with some very warm air in tow, the extent of this on this run is restricted towards the South and East where some very warm and humid air will develop. Troughs though moving up against this heat from the West will trigger some thundery weather at times in the South and East and some rain elsewhere but the overall longer term theme remains for quite a bit of warm and sunny weather in the South and East with any rain most likely still towards the North and West
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows Europe becoming very warm and hot with the UK always lying on the Western boundary of this with Atlantic cooler air battling it's way against this at times, without much success. This means the East and South will often be very warm or hot from next week with occasional thunderstorms while the West sees somewhat cooler air with thundery rain more extensive at times. Later in the run the heat ebbs away to a fresher but slacker Westerly flow.
THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show High pressure largely dominant across or near the UK in 14 days time with just a handful of members showing anything particularly more unsettled with rain at times.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
UKMO UKMO today shows high temperatures across the South and East next week as the Spanish plume affecting mainland Europe affects the South and SE of England too at times. Further North and West sees cooler air maintained with some troughing supporting the risk of some thundery rain or showers in places close to the heat with much mist and murk near Western and Southern coasts at times.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support conditions warming up next week as Southerly winds are drawn North from Spain. Humidities do look like being high with the risk of thunder moving North by Day 5.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.
GEM GEM shows warm weather too developing next week as High pressure over Europe drives very warm and humid air North across the UK, principally the East and SE but to some degree elsewhere too. The air will often be de-stabilised by thundery Low pressure which will produce occasionally heavy downpours in the East and South before the end of the run finds cooler air having extended East across all of the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows very warm and humid conditions across the UK from early next week with the heat proving stubborn to shift and possibly giving rise to some marked thunderstorms at times as heat and humidity from the West combine with the East still holding on to the heat 1 week from now.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.
ECM ECM this morning completes the set this morning also showing things becoming very warm and humid next week with the risk of thundery showers very much apparent as thundery Low pressure from quite early in the period attacks the heat from the SW. This lasts several days before a more meaningful push of cooler Atlantic air wins through late in the period with fresher conditions for all by then.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the West and NW of the UK, slack in nature and maintaining very warm air close to the SW with occasional thundery pulses likely to push NE across the SE at times with the freshest conditions towards the NW.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to show a chance of a plume developing close to or just to the East of the UK next week.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.5 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.3 pts with GFS at 82.8 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 46.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.5 pts to 24.5 pts.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
MY THOUGHTS There remains a question mark on the extent of a Spanish Plume's extent and longevity across the UK next week. The one certainty is that the weather is going to warm up next week for almost all areas but most markedly so across the SE and East. Some very hot conditions could see temperatures top 30-32C across these areas if sunshine allows but there is a lot of support for humidity to quickly claim the dry and sunny Continental heat back to the other side of the channel and with a quick move over the UK towards instability and de-stabilisation in the middle and upper atmosphere across Central and Western areas meaning the risk of thundery rain and storms quickly becomes likely in places from midweek. Whether this means a quick departure of the plume is unclear with some ebbing and flowing of it's push East and back West again likely for some time. Longer term the models do seem to nudge the hot air even further away over Europe and others seep it away altogether with a more changeable and cooler Westerly flow likely by then but there is more than some evidence that warm and summery weather will never lie far away to the East and SE over Europe and chances of a re-run of the current plume as we move through July have got to be high under the developing synoptic pattern especially in the South and East of the UK. So summarising something for everyone is shown this morning with heat and sunshine promoting the risk of some rather nasty storms in places and the possibility of cooler and fresher air returning with time.
Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 27th 2015
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset