General rule for 850 to surface temp conversion (maximun daytime, inland).

If the humidity is high add 10C

If the humidity is low add 15C

So for pretty consistent 20C uppers we are looking at 30C if the air is moist and thundery and 35C if its dry and sunny. Should we get to 25C we could break the 40C barrier.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015062612/ECU0-192.GIF?26-0

ECM keep's the plume going for longer temp's widely in the low 30's id have thought.

Breaking the 35C+ mark will be down to when/if any storms thundery rain develops.

Only 18c 850s lol! Still very very hot especially in the East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

If it's sunny I think we will get 37c/38c with 850s above 20c for 4 days in a row.

I highly doubt it will get to 38C take's a near perfect set up to break 100f in the UK

38C might be a bit of a stretch but the July record looks under threat judging by the output tonight. The set-up isn't too far from perfect really 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Exceptional ECM 12z ends on a very warm settled note. 76 esque run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Ecm is very similar to August 2003 so we have a chance. 

I know it was a few pages back but there was a brief discussion on the fact that Heathrow may overdo its temperatures due to its location. with thanks to the met office I have obtained a photo of the station, looks fairly standard surrounded by grass. perhaps the temperatures can be more believed now ?

https://flic.kr/p/uWyzqq

Possibly, although the Aug 2003 record came after we had had temps of over 30c for more than a week IIRC, plus June & July 2003 had also seen very warm/hot weather at times, especially that July.

I think the duration of this hot spell will have a big say in whether any records are broken or not.

Has it been moved?

Far too much of a coincidence that Heathrow so often maxes the top temp. There has to be a local reason as to why that is. It's not a climate reason. 

I don't know the answer by the way, but you can't help but think huge Tarmac areas, thousands of planes per day belching hot products of combustion into the air etc. 

The fence looks old as if its been there for years. The photo shows a Met office man checking the equipment so I assume they are happy with readings and passes there QC

Tim's post makes sense, and does explain why it often takes the crown. Anyone know what the nearest other official station to Heathrow is?

Folkestone Sands next week. 

Which one is Ian?

He's taking the photo 

Nice to see you back again Jiries. The forum has a good vibe again. We needed something like this. It's been such a long time since we have all been able to get excited about something potentially record breaking / historic.  

Maybe getting excited doesn't apply to all Steve, as I for one can't stand hot weather. I will however concede that should temps nudge into the mid-30s then from an enthusiasts point of view I will be engaged in the hype (from the confines of Matty's super air-conditioned bedroom ) 😎😳

Finally logged in via mobile!

The tropics are seeing a monumental change toward an El Nino type setup at long last after a number of failed attempts in recent weeks. The initial impact of this is to amplify the Atlantic jet.

Earlier efforts have brought about glancing blows from European plumes but with things flattening out too soon to achieve much as the tropical convection reset to a more La Niña type configuration.

In fact the models tended to overlook that a bit - hence big shunts east of the plume nearer the time.

This time they seem to be underestimating the magnitude of the mid-lat response and so we see adjustments to a more amplified pattern, holding the trough further west. Initial heat intensity is sacrificed in favour of longevity... during which the heat may build into the mid-30's anyway, as models tend to struggle with day-on-day heat build IMO.

Goin to pause now as phone is lagging terribly!