i really appreciate your input Steve, I don't post much but at least you are reasoned and sensible with your posts, some people on here are so over dramatic!

---

Thanks Islander. It's important to restore some balance at times. If I wasn't a seasoned model watcher and relied on these posts for a quick update I would be excused in thinking that the whole thing was off.

It isn't..and based on current output we are still on the brink of a 'potentially' very notable heatwave.

---

I wasn't going to bother posting but as you've restored some normality I thought I ought to agree

This is like a mirror image of what happens during winter, when NAVGEM shows some -20C 850s, GEFS has solid agreement on a few days of -15C and ECM is all over the place... only to find that the end result is one day of -8C at 850 and sleet (followed by news reports of heavy snowfall in Egypt/Israel/Cyprus/southern Spain).

All that's missing is someone popping up to go on about people dying / listing lots of inconveniences caused by the weather, heedless of the fact the weather does what it will regardless of what we all want.

We're still in for a few hot days, mind you, and as in winter there are bound to be further adjustments as the event gets closer. It's still ages away in model terms after all!

---

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html 

Still looks pants here with a SEly flow too!

---

Lol indeed. 

Slightly better again this morning after last night's crap GFS.

Still no denying the big three are not as good as yesterday's 12z outputs by quite a bit though, mainly for the western half, but we knew we were in a fine margin situation, and there's still heat, just not as hot here and not for as long. Hopefully that will redress. 

As for Moomin - he was patting himself on the back yesterday for a great summer forecast that said a hot start to July from a completely different synoptic output than we currently have. Today he's slashing his wrists. Same old. 

Right - time for coffee. 

---

Good post Gusty.

GFS isn't as good as yesterday but the other big 3 are stunning and show mid 30s next week.

 

Ecm looks like it's setting up another plume at day 10 as well. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 

---

'Get the heat in, and the humidity and high maxes will follow'

 

I'll grab me air-con unit . . . .

😉

---

The main current different from yesterday's earlier GFS runs and ens is the longevity of the hottest temps for all. Back to nearer normal by the weekend whereas the 12z op run and ens went for a longer affair. 

ECM my favourite of reliable models this morning. 

On another note it's clearly going to be a cracking hot day here today. All the focus on next week shouldn't detract from what's already here, although tomorrow looks pants. 

---

GEFS isn't the be all and end all but there has been a shift in the last 24 hours with the plume either a little farther east and / or less potent. 

---

Looks damn hot to me

---

Hot pants?

 

I'm not sure the extremes shown by the likes of NAVGEM were ever realistic but temperatures into the 30s look probable (in the south) which should keep heat fans happy. It still looks quite notable even if it doesn't break any records.

Personally I'm just happy that it looks like being mostly warm and sunny here today. 

---

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JUNE 27TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure lies across the UK today followed by a warm and cold front crossing East and SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming very warm next week with some thundery showers especially in the South and East. Cooler in the NW.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow currently blowing West to East across Southern Britain. Over the next few days the flow buckles North and then sets up a South to North flow close to Western Britain through next week before settling to a SW to NE flow across Britain in Week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a steady warm up over the coming days as very warm air from Spain is directed North and NE to the UK and mainland Europe from Spain. It doesn't last that long though in the UK before cooler air behind thundery troughs moves across the UK towards next weekend and introduces a more changeable Westerly flow with rain at times which gradually settles to a traditional Summer NW/SE split in conditions later in week 2 with the best conditions in the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run also shows a two pronged attack of heat from the South in the next week to 10 days. The first one doesn't look like lasting long away from the far East and SE before a thundery trough brings somewhat cooler air in for a time. The second attack next weekend could be more intense in the East before a shift towards the cooler and more changeable Westerly regime shown by the operational is reached later in Week 2, once more most likely preceded by a thundery breakdown.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show High pressure having declined by Day 14 with a more Atlantic influence to the UK weather with rain at times especially over the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a heat wave or plume moving up from Spain through this week. The East will see the highest temperatures but all areas look like sharing in some very warm and humid conditions this week. Scattered thunderstorms look likely in the West as cooler air attempts to move in off the Atlantic but without much success on this run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support conditions warming up next week as Southerly winds are drawn North from Spain. Humidities do look like being high with the risk of thunderstorms towards the SW shown to be perilously close by the end of the week as destabilisation is shown to the SW at the end of the run.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows very warm or hot weather developing through this week with little or no displacement over the rest of the period. Attempts to bring in cooler air at times from the West is shown on occasions but with scattered thunderstorms illustrated too with the high humidity levels for much of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM has shifted the heat slightly East of the Uk this morning with NW Europe seeing the most searing temperatures. However, plenty of very warm or hot eather for the South and the East of the UK too is shown with some thundery showers too especially in Western and Central areas later next week and then the SE next weekend..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows very warm or hot weather across the UK for much of it's 10 day period this morning commencing within the next 72 hours. It maybe that the core of the highest temperatures is somewhat further East today but humidities will be high and the risk of thunderstorms is very obvious this morning as weak upper air disturbances run into the hot air from the South or SW at times without much displacement of the heat. The run ends with a strong Summer anticyclone  re-established across Southern England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients and very high temperatures across the UK with Low pressure held out in the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to show a plume developing over or just to the East of the UK next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.5 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.3 pts with GFS at 82.9 pts and UKMO at 81.8 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.1 over 46.2. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.6 pts to 24.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The much talked about heatwave is still well and truly on the way this morning with perhaps a shift away from the staggering and blistering heat charts of recent days to the other side of the channel on this morning's run. Nevertheless, temperatures are set to soar as a plume of hot air from Spain crosses France and the UK and NW Europe in general through this coming week. The highest temperatures look like being across the East and SE where 33-35C is likely widely and local records could be at threat. For Western and Central regions the heat will be less intense but very humid in nature with temperatures more likely in the 25-30C bracket under hazy cloud cover and an ever increasing risk of thunderstorms drifting North from Biscay. GFS has then taken a more progressive route this morning displacing the heat for smething much cooler and more changeable through Week 2 with rain at times. ECM though shows much more resilience against any major change with very warm or hot conditions likely for the entire period and suggesting a rebuild of Summer High pressure across the South by Day 10. There is a lot of dotting the I's and crossing the T's in this morning's output but with some confidence we can look forward to a spell of very warm weather with temperatures likely to be the highest for some years in the East and SE. The longevity of the spell is the question mark this morning with some output showing a second surge of heat after a brief relaxation  next weekend. For those that like or don't like thunderstorms there is good and bad news today as there could be many days when thunderstorms are possible and with such heat and humidity around they could be severe locally with a lot of rainfall. No one can deny that recent days model output has been truly staggering with regard to progged temperatures and although I believe we may be spared the very highest temperatures shown by them the charts will need to be watched with interest still as the event creeps ever nearer over the next few days.

Next update from 08:00 Monday June 29th 2015

---

The usual shifts and turns in model output today. For every GFS Op, there's a GEM Op that keeps the heat going throughout the whole run. The end of next week is a long way off, so no sense in calling breakdowns etc. etc. at this stage.

---

The highest temperatures look like being across the East and SE where 33-35C is likely widely and local records could be at threat.

From the excellent Martin G ^^^^^^^^ looks HOT for many in my opinion

For Western and Central regions the heat will be less intense but very humid in nature with temperatures more likely in the 25-30C bracket

And even for the colder areas   ^^^^^^^^^^

---

I'm just trying to recall the last sustained spell of hot temps we had here. This is a personal opinion of hot and sustained, but for me it's anything over 25c and anything over 4 or 5 days. I genuinely cannot remember, but it hasn't been for quite a few years I don't think?

---

Today's ECM ensembles:

http://oi59.tinypic.com/1zp2wie.jpg

Note that yesterday's 12z run was a hot outlier for Reading.

There's a 25% chance of the heatwave going on for a bit, but at the moment normality looks like returning over the weekend.

---

GFS has suddenly started making more of the heat low and running it north before merging with the Atlantic trough. This acts to tilt the jet more toward the UK and from there on the plume setup collapses, albeit not without a battle on the 00z op which turns into a peculiar run as the Euro ridge holds on but the Atlantic jet is super-flat. The hot air toys with the far south throughout lower-res.

ECM and UKMO are still keeping the heat low weak and trapping it under a ridge from that large high to our NE in 4-5 days time. The plume stagnates over a large part of the UK.

I notice that GFS has that high considerably weaker at that time. A result of the heat low behaviour or cause?

Whatever happens, you can see why I remained cautious yesterday and continue to do so today, despite background signals strongly supporting a lack of westerly momentum for 4 or 5 days at least starting next Monday.

---

July 2013 was very sustained at least here in the southeast. 19 consecutive days over 28C somewhere in the UK.

http://www.trevorharley.com/trevorharley/weather_web_pages/2013_weather.htm 

 

---

July 2013 here, exceeded 25C for 8 consecutive days between 12th-19th and then 6 consecutive days between 22nd-27th. The entire thing culminated on 1 August when it reached 31C - but the rest of August mostly between 21-25C.

2013 was a pretty decent summer in retrospect.

---

Good looking  ecm mean as we head into summer very warm /hot south  s/e uk

 

Hoping gfs to progressive

 

 

I haven't checked but I also have the feeling that, if everything goes according to "plan" then this will be the best spell of sustained hot weather for parts of the UK for quite a few years.

Edit: By "parts" I mean not just the SE, which as has been highlighted, did well in 2013. For other parts though I am thinking back to 2006?

---

I agree, I always look for 25c as being decent for the UK, and as you say it has been a while.........................

---

I'd be surprised if that didn't happen last year in July. 

 

---

Yeah, not sure. I don't keep personal records, but 2013 doesn't stick in the mind, although it may well have been good here. 2006 I do recall. 

---