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Jive Buddy
05 December 2015 11:32:51


 


Yes, about 15 minutes ago. I wonder if the red warning was from the Environment Agency? Perhaps you had sunstroke and imagined it. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Hmmm...I'm sure it was a weather red. I'll see if it turns purple tonight....and the warning 


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
doctormog
05 December 2015 11:34:31


 


Hmmm...I'm sure it was a weather red. I'll see if it turns purple tonight....and the warning 


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 



nsrobins
05 December 2015 11:40:55


 


Was the red only issued this morning? The reason I ask, is that I've been following the BBC World Weather on the only English channel I can get here, and they said last night there was a red warning out for the NW - but when I looked it was still amber. I'm wondering if I've found an advanced weather warning channel? 


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


I know there is often a delay between defining and scripting a warning about to be issued and it's appearance on the website. This results in news being leaked about a new or updated warning before it is published.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Jive Buddy
05 December 2015 11:45:01


 


I know there is often a delay between defining and scripting a warning about to be issued and it's appearance on the website. This results in news being leaked about a new or updated warning before it is published.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Thanks Neil - I'll watch it tonight, and tell you all tomorrow's warnings when I get them. 'Memba, ya heard it here first innit 


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
ARTzeman
06 December 2015 12:37:00

BBC Weather - Peasedown St john shows cooler temperature from 13 th December.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
tallyho_83
07 December 2015 01:53:39


Met office update http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast


- Pause and take note before we default back to milder and wetter weather!





Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Dec 2015 to Sunday 20 Dec 2015:

Colder and brighter on Friday with a mixture of sunshine and showers, these heaviest and most frequent in the northwest where they will be blustery and wintry on high ground. It may then become dry for a time away from the northwest before milder, wetter and windier weather returns to the southwest through Saturday, this spreading northeastwards across all areas by the end of the weekend. Thereafter it is likely to remain unsettled for all areas with showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in western areas, while eastern areas should enjoy occasional drier periods. It is likely to be windy at times with showers falling as snow over northern hills. Temperatures will generally be around average, although with some frosty nights possible under clear skies, particularly at first.

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Dec 2015 to Monday 4 Jan 2016:

The latest indications are that unsettled conditions will dominate across the UK at first with Atlantic weather systems bringing outbreaks of rain and strong winds to many areas. Later in the month there is a possibility of some drier and colder weather developing, however there is significant uncertainty in the forecast and some rain is still possible at times. Temperatures are likely to vary from day to day, with mild conditions at times associated with frontal systems, then some colder interludes between. Mild conditions become less likely towards the end of December.

Updated at: 0137 on Mon 07 Dec 2015


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
07 December 2015 07:21:26
Of course this is yesterday's update as posted earlier on the page (and it says milder conditions are less likely later in the second period?)
tallyho_83
07 December 2015 11:46:58

 


BBC Monthly outlook: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook


-------------------------------------------


 


Monday 7 December Published at 10:00


Monthly Outlook


Summary


A week of exceptional weather

It has been an exceptional week of weather in the UK. The Met Office issued a rare 'Red Weather Warning' for northwest England and southern Scotland as storm Desmond impacted the British Isles. Rainfall totals continued to add up which led to led to a state of emergency being declared in Cumbria as river defences eventually failed and towns were flooded. County authorities will continue to clear up long after the rain has gone.
As we cast our eyes to a new working week, a changeable period is in store and in some ways we are back to 'business as usual for December'. However, while each spell of rain and wind that moves through is by itself not unusual, it will be even trickier than usual to try and forecast the impacts of any rain, particularly across northern parts of Britain, as river levels remain swollen and water continues to filter though the natural drainage systems.




Monday 7 December—Monday 14 December

It's beginning to look a lot like..well, December

It has been exceptionally mild through the autumn and now that winter has arrived some of us may be wondering 'when will winter actually arrive?!'.
There will be little signs of winter to start the second week of December. It will be a very mild day on Monday with many western and northern areas seeing some rain but elsewhere, it will be mostly dry and at times largely cloudy. Further rainfall is expected across Cumbria and while we are not expecting a large amount of rain it needs to be borne in mind that rivers are swollen and some localised impacts are still possible.
On Tuesday rain will clear from west to east through the day and some colder air will follow on behind along with brighter skies and also a scattering of showers. Some of these showers may wintry across Scotland. Temperatures will drop back to where they should be this time of year. During Wednesday, a frontal system will approach from the west. The latest guidance indicates that this rain is likely to affect mainly northern England and Scotland and as such while this event in itself is not unusual, all agencies will be watching the progresses of this front over the next number of model runs to see how long and how much rain will be forecast.
Friday will see another change and many places will be drier and chillier! Overnight frosts will feature in the forecast and temperatures will drop away to where we would expect for this time of year. Currently, the weekend looks set to be dominated by a northwesterly wind, which means it's likely to be windy in the north and west but many areas will see good spells of sunshine and temperatures where they should be for December.




Monday 14 December—Monday 28 December

Weather changes every day

At this stage of forecasting, we are pushing the boundaries of 'forecasting' and we look more towards 'patterns' that are being produced by the various computer models. The computer models are signalling changeable conditions as a general mobile flow i.e. rain bearing systems moving in of the Atlantic, along with windy conditions. Temperatures are expected to swing from average to below average temperatures at times with overnight frosts in the colder spells. Rainfall amounts are indication that they are above or well above average across many parts of the UK and sunshine amounts are expected to be close to average but below average across northern areas.




Monday 28 December—Monday 11 January

Something a toucher colder?

The signals from the various models become more mixed at this stage but what we are seeing is a mixture of changeable conditions interspersed with lengthier dry spells as high pressure remains in charge for a few days at time which could also indicate briefer colder conditions. Although temperatures are expected to be near or above average overall but temperatures are signalling below average towards the end of the month with frosts possible. Rainfall totals are expected to be above average across all parts. Up slopes of western parts of Wales and Scotland may see well above average totals.




Next week

Find out next week what the computers models say as we get that bit closer to Christmas.



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
07 December 2015 20:46:19



Met office update http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast


- Pause and take note before we default back to milder and wetter weather!





Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Dec 2015 to Sunday 20 Dec 2015:

Colder and brighter on Friday with a mixture of sunshine and showers, these heaviest and most frequent in the northwest where they will be blustery and wintry on high ground. It may then become dry for a time away from the northwest before milder, wetter and windier weather returns to the southwest through Saturday, this spreading northeastwards across all areas by the end of the weekend. Thereafter it is likely to remain unsettled for all areas with showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in western areas, while eastern areas should enjoy occasional drier periods. It is likely to be windy at times with showers falling as snow over northern hills. Temperatures will generally be around average, although with some frosty nights possible under clear skies, particularly at first.

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Dec 2015 to Monday 4 Jan 2016:

The latest indications are that unsettled conditions will dominate across the UK at first with Atlantic weather systems bringing outbreaks of rain and strong winds to many areas. Later in the month there is a possibility of some drier and colder weather developing, however there is significant uncertainty in the forecast and some rain is still possible at times. Temperatures are likely to vary from day to day, with mild conditions at times associated with frontal systems, then some colder interludes between. Mild conditions become less likely towards the end of December.

Updated at: 0137 on Mon 07 Dec 2015


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Todays met office forecast has flipped from yesterday...and flipped back for the worse!


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Solar Cycles
09 December 2015 13:16:09
What a thoroughly depressing update to a thoroughly depressing country and climate. Time to check my lotto numbers and look at far away places to emigrate to.đŸ¤’
Gooner
09 December 2015 13:26:22

What a thoroughly depressing update to a thoroughly depressing country and climate. Time to check my lotto numbers and look at far away places to emigrate to.đŸ¤’

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Might go and join Mike in Norway


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


ARTzeman
09 December 2015 13:56:29

Looks like the depression is in full swing with mood here.  Lets hope Meto might be changing the tune some day soon..






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
KevBrads1
09 December 2015 19:58:10
This Sunday, Britain's wildest weather 2015 is on Channel 4 at 7.30pm. Highlights of the big weather events that affected the UK this year. Storm Desmond's flooding has caught them out somewhat and they are rushing to include this. One of the researchers contacted me a few weeks ago asking about the possibility of using one of my time-lapses for footage. Not sure if they used it but hopefully a good documentary.

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
tallyho_83
09 December 2015 20:40:21
I can't find the N. American forum thread so will post this here.

Brett Anderson's Long range weather update is interesting - Looks like another snowless winter for the Canadian Rockies - also interesting how he forecasted above/much above average than normal temperatures for the east coast as well. - Scroll down at the bottom and view his Jan - March forecast, - it's quite rare that both sides of the N. Atlantic turn out warmer than average throughout winter. - Usually if the Eastern part of USA/ Canada is freezing cold we are milder than average!?:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/my-thoughts-on-the-short-and-long-range-weather-pattern/54093007 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
10 December 2015 10:28:14

Could someone send me the link to the N. American forum page? Thank you.


 


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Met office update: - Not happy with this , there is NO let up at all throughout this December or early January. Not even one or two days of solid dry weather, even in the milder Decembers we have had a rest in the zonal' weather.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days


UK Outlook for Monday 14 Dec 2015 to Wednesday 23 Dec 2015:


Outbreaks of rain, falling as snow initially across Scotland, will spread northeastwards across all of the UK through Monday and into Tuesday, introducing mild conditions after a cold start in the north. The heaviest and most prolonged rain along with the strongest winds will be in the south and west, while the north and east could see some drier periods. Thereafter it will remain unsettled for most areas, with the wettest and windiest weather in the north and west. Further south and east some drier spells are likely between the rain with an increasing risk of frost and fog. The more unsettled conditions in the north and west are then likely to return nationwide towards the end of the forecast period. Temperatures generally will be near or just above average.


UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Dec 2015 to Thursday 7 Jan 2016:


Through the Christmas period and into the start of January it seems more likely than not that the unsettled weather pattern we have experienced through November and early December will continue. This would suggest that all parts of the UK will see rain and strong or gale force winds at times, with the north and west of the country experiencing the heaviest and most frequent rainfall as well as the strongest winds. Further south and east some drier and more settled spells will intersperse the wet and windy periods. Overall temperatures are likely to be mild for the time of year, although there will still be brief colder spells leading to a risk of frost, and snow over northern hills.


Updated at: 0244 on Thu 10 Dec 2015


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Brian Gaze
10 December 2015 10:38:24


Could someone send me the link to the N. American forum page? Thank you.


 


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Met office update: - Not happy with this , there is NO let up at all throughout this December or early January. Not even one or two days of solid dry weather, even in the milder Decembers we have had a rest in the zonal' weather.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days


UK Outlook for Monday 14 Dec 2015 to Wednesday 23 Dec 2015:


Outbreaks of rain, falling as snow initially across Scotland, will spread northeastwards across all of the UK through Monday and into Tuesday, introducing mild conditions after a cold start in the north. The heaviest and most prolonged rain along with the strongest winds will be in the south and west, while the north and east could see some drier periods. Thereafter it will remain unsettled for most areas, with the wettest and windiest weather in the north and west. Further south and east some drier spells are likely between the rain with an increasing risk of frost and fog. The more unsettled conditions in the north and west are then likely to return nationwide towards the end of the forecast period. Temperatures generally will be near or just above average.


UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Dec 2015 to Thursday 7 Jan 2016:


Through the Christmas period and into the start of January it seems more likely than not that the unsettled weather pattern we have experienced through November and early December will continue. This would suggest that all parts of the UK will see rain and strong or gale force winds at times, with the north and west of the country experiencing the heaviest and most frequent rainfall as well as the strongest winds. Further south and east some drier and more settled spells will intersperse the wet and windy periods. Overall temperatures are likely to be mild for the time of year, although there will still be brief colder spells leading to a risk of frost, and snow over northern hills.


Updated at: 0244 on Thu 10 Dec 2015


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


That's yesterday's update isn't it?


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
11 December 2015 21:14:44

How come there is no N. American reports thread?

Look at the extremely milder than average weather in NY!?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york-ny/10007/weather-forecast/349727

Temperatures in the mid -upper teens early next week!


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
12 December 2015 01:31:23


How come there is no N. American reports thread?

Look at the extremely milder than average weather in NY!?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york-ny/10007/weather-forecast/349727

Temperatures in the mid -upper teens early next week!


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Indeed, most of America having record temps and Canada too. Chicago is close to record highs of 61f tomorrow with 60f forecast. The average is 36f. This time last year it was around 25f. 


Most of the major cities are seeing a warmup this weekend, even Texas will be 80+f which is unusual for December.


Winter 23/24 in Nantwich
Days Snow Falling: 4
Days Snow Lying: 1
Deepest Snowfall: 3rd December 23 (2cm)



Winter 22/23 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4
Days Snow Lying: 2
Deepest Snowfall: 10th March (3cm)
Latest Snowfall: 10th March

Winter 21/22 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 3
Days Snow Lying: 1
Deepest Snowfall: 28th November (3cm)
Latest Snowfall: 31st March

Winter 20/21 in Solihull

Days Snow Falling: 21
Days Snow Lying: 8
Deepest Snowfall: 24th January (9cm)
Latest Snowfall: 12th April

Winter 19/20 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 5
Days Snow Lying: 2
Deepest Snowfall: 10th Feb (5cm)

Winter 18/19 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 6
Days Snow Lying: 6
Deepest Snowfall: 29th Jan (3cm)

Winter 17/18 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 27
Days Snow Lying: 24
Deepest Snowfall: 18th March 2018 (10cm)
Rob K
14 December 2015 10:29:19

Bizarre story in the Metro this morning, claiming "icy conditions and freezing fog are on the way".

Reading between the lines it was just talking about the snow in northern England, which seems to have already happened, considering they illustrated it with a photo of snow next to the Angel of the North!

Meanwhile its forecast to hit 16C here by the end of the week.


 


Not exactly the same story as in print but this is off the website: http://metro.co.uk/2015/12/13/white-christmas-looking-likely-as-forecast-looks-pretty-chillly-5562093/


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
smeeg
14 December 2015 23:49:08

I apologise if this isn't relevant; technically it's not directly weather related, but I noticed that Defra is showing a "moderate to high" risk of air pollution risk for some possible Saharan dust on Thursday (2015-12-17). There's currently quite a lot of red on their map.


http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/


"There is currently some uncertainty regarding this, as most of the dust has not yet been lifted into the atmosphere. "

KevBrads1
15 December 2015 06:18:30

This Sunday, Britain's wildest weather 2015 is on Channel 4 at 7.30pm. Highlights of the big weather events that affected the UK this year. Storm Desmond's flooding has caught them out somewhat and they are rushing to include this. One of the researchers contacted me a few weeks ago asking about the possibility of using one of my time-lapses for footage. Not sure if they used it but hopefully a good documentary.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Did anyone see this by the way?


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
15 December 2015 06:37:43


 


Did anyone see this by the way?


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


I hadn't spotted this so thanks for highlighting it again Kevin. It is repeated on 4seven this Friday at 9pm so have set my recorder

Ulric
16 December 2015 15:19:53


I apologise if this isn't relevant; technically it's not directly weather related, but I noticed that Defra is showing a "moderate to high" risk of air pollution risk for some possible Saharan dust on Thursday (2015-12-17). There's currently quite a lot of red on their map.


http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/


"There is currently some uncertainty regarding this, as most of the dust has not yet been lifted into the atmosphere. "


Originally Posted by: smeeg 


The Mirror says its the end of the world!


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/sahara-dust-cloud-hit-britain-7019491


 


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
moomin75
16 December 2015 15:21:56


 


The Mirror says its the end of the world!


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/sahara-dust-cloud-hit-britain-7019491


 


Originally Posted by: Ulric 

Well they would do wouldn't they because it's that insufferable twonk Nathan Rao up to his old tricks. Seriously this guy brings disgrace to the journalism profession. 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
tallyho_83
17 December 2015 02:25:30

Simon Keeling's Month ahead weather forecast update:


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20151216


 













Month ahead - December 16, 2015
 

Valid from 19/12 to 15/01 2016
January cool start?

Issued: Wednesday 16th December 2015
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling




Hints of a cooler start to 2016

The very mild weather looks set to continue into Christmas, and it could become very windy too.
Hints are that it stays mild into the pre-New Tear week, before possibly turning cooler in the early stages of January as high pressure starts to build. However, note that confidence is low.

*19/12/15 - 25/12/15*
A mild and unsettled wek before Christmas. It is likely to become very windy with severe gales at times, especially mid week. Wet too, especially in the west.

*26/12/15 - 1/1/16*
Staying mostly mild through this period. It is likely to be unsettled too with rain at times. Most of the rain in the west, the risk of some storms passing through too. However, towards the end of the week and into New Year we may start to see cooler weather trying to push in.

*2/1/16 - 8/1/16*
Despite not a high possibility there is a chance of the weather turning cooler heading into the New Year. Winds may become northwesterly with a risk of some snow on hills in Scotland, northern England and Ireland.

*9/1/16 - 15/1/16*
Again confidence remains low, but there is the possibility of colder weather arriving during this period. Perhaps becoming cold and frosty. Fog may well be a problem too, although starting to become milder later in the week.

**ends** .

Simon Keeling



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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