Feels like we are getting a . . .

I'll let you work this out.

Ian, a quick glance at the ensembles reveals the GFS op was the coldest of the 20 pertubations in the 12z suite 22-24 July - in other words just as dismissable as if it showed the warmest option. 

Whether it's meant to, but looks a bit fuzzy my end Ian. End of Summer perhaps?

GFS suggesting we may get a light show down here Thursday night.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JULY 15TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak area of High pressure over Northern Britain will drift slowly NE and allow a SE flow ahead of a deepening depression to the SW later moving NNE towards Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Rather warm in the SE at times then perhaps cooler generally later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow maintaining a relentless course across the UK from the Atlantic for the foreseeable future. It's axis will remain SW to NE or West to East with varying strengths. Later in the less reliable end of the run the flow becomes even less desirable with a NW to SE slant over the South of the UK or Northern France bringing the UK on to the cool side of the Jet flow.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today focuses much on the pattern we have seen for some time now in that pressure will remain high to the South of the UK trapping all the heat to the South while Low pressure to the North and NW of the UK keeps cooler Atlantic winds across much of the UK with rain at times towards the North and West, more occasionally reaching the SE too. Later in the run pressure becomes higher to the SW with a more NW element to the winds with further unsettled spells for all with rain at times and cooler conditions than of late likely for the SE of this pattern verifies.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows a similar pattern to that of the operational run with the axis of High pressure to the South changing somewhat through Week 2 with a NW flow developing and with Low pressure still in close proximity to Northern Britain at times some cool and changeable weather is likely for all by then with the warmth of the first week in the SE pushed away South-east over Europe.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning strongly support yesterday's set with a NW flow across the UK from most members in 14 days time bringing cooler air SE over the UK. Many members also show Low pressure close to the North or NE of Britain with rain or showers for many with the driest conditions likely towards the SW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a NW/SE split being maintained within the confines of it's 6 day output with the North and NW at greatest risk from cloud and rain from Atlantic depressions while the South and East stay dry for much of the time and quite warm and humid at times in SW winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning mostly focus on the passage of a deepening Low transferring NNE from the SW approaches to a point North of Scotland on Friday delivering rain and potential gales to the NW while after a glancing blow from a thundery trough across the SE these areas return to fine and dry weather late in the period while after the Low clears further incursions from Atlantic fronts and depressions bring the risk of further unsettled weather as we move into next week across Northern areas.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today also shows the deepening Low too with strong winds for the North and West for a time and then keeps Low pressure close to the North for some time with wind and rain at times across the North as a result. In the South a slacker and sometimes warm and humid SW flow is maintained with far less rain and some warm sunshine at times. At the end of the run pressure has fallen somewhat over continental Europe with the risk of thundery showers and high humidity increasing across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today maintains the status-quo for the South and East with the continuation of a lot of dry and fine weather with variable cloud, little if any rain and some rather warm and humid temperatures at times in the light SW flow. The North and West a more mobile pattern with occasional rain on cooler Atlantic winds in association with lower pressure to the North and NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today splits into two halves with the first half of the run maintaining largely SW winds across the UK, strong in the NW with fronts delivering bands of rain and showers here while the South and East keeps close to warm High pressure over Europe with a lighter SW breeze and a lot of fine weather in variable cloud and warm and occasionally humid conditions. By the second week though pressure transfers to be higher to the SW which pushes a colder West to NW flow down across the UK with rain or showers at times for all by then in much fresher air which is shown to push well South into NW Europe too..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows the theme of cooler winds from a more Northerly source becoming more influential across the British Isles through the second week of output today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main theme of a possible shift of emphasis to veer winds from the mild SW to a cooler NW flow across the UK has continued this morning with maintained cross model support.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.5 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.2 pts followed by GFS at 81.1 and UKMO at 80.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.2 pts over GFS's 49.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 32.3 pts to 28.1 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The patterning towards an eventual change to somewhat cooler and fresher weather in the second week of the forecast period this morning is maintained. In the meantime the weather remains set as it has for a while past with the same SE/NW split keeping going. This is not without interest though as in the coming days an unusually deep depression is likely to pass close to NW Ireland and Scotland with rain and gales a none to pleasant ingredient of this no doubt affecting the open golf championship in the coming days. Elsewhere this has little effect other than provide a catalyst for a brief splurge of warm and humid air which triggers some thunderstorms for a time from tomorrow evening. thereafter it's back to business as usual with the South and East largely dry and bright while the North and West sees further rain at times from more Atlantic fronts and disturbances next week. It's then the second week of this morning's output which promotes interest if you want a change on the current pattern as it is looking increasingly likely that High pressure over NW Europe will relax somewhat with the Azores High in it's home location turning winds to a cooler west or NW direction across all areas and coupled with the fall of pressure over Europe allows winds to swing NW and pull cooler and showery conditions SE to all of the UK and parts of Europe too. It still looks like the SW will fair best with the least showers and rain while the North sees the most of any prolonged showers. Nevertheless, there will be a noticeable drop off in temperatures for all by day and night in the South and coupled with the brisk breeze it will no doubt feel chillier than of late. This is only the second day of this change being shown and while it looks increasingly likely to verify in one form or another it is still more than a week away and may be modified or even removed in subsequent output but with the Northern hemisphere patterning and the position of the Jet flow it has some higher than normal percentage chance of verifying if the predictions from the models over the next 7 days ring true. Once again I emphasise there is nothing particularly nasty shown in the outputs just a shift of the pendulum the wrong way if it's a long hot spell you seek.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday July 16th 2015

Anyone seen Madden's killer heatwave yet?

perhaps it's gotten lost with Mr Gaze's record breaker 😂

You mean the record-breaker that actually did break the record? Brian actually slightly underestimated the top temperature, going for 35C as I recall.

Posted : 05 July 2015 20:05:30
Second British heatwave could bring hottest ever temperature

Brian Gaze of The Weather Outlook said: “The year’s hottest temperatures usually occur in late July or early August. “As pressure models favour more African hot air over Europe pulsing to the UK, the 101F (38.5C) record could go.”

http://www.telegraph.co....st-ever-temperature.html

I think that's a fair assessment. Completely different to the likes of Madden and ***** who don't deal in "possibles" and "coulds", they only deal in "this will definitely happen, and when it doesn't I'll claim it did or gloss over the fact. 

COULD

So stop misrepresenting this  or clear off. Especially as I'm picking up the bandwidth bill for your comments.

Fair enough you did say 'could', and I didn't mention 'could' when I made the original post. 

Now it's been pointed out I can see how my original post 'could' possibly be seen as a 'misrepresentation' of that article & your input. For this I offer my sincere apologies.

I do have one question: Should a record breaking heatwave materialise and folk praise you for predicting it, are you going to shoot them down with the same tone as you have me for misreading what you said??

That would also be a misrepresentation. See:

Temp record speculation

Is it mid August already?  

whats is being misrepresented? 😐

If a record breaking heatwave occurred and someone said it was as I'd forecast.

could:
used to indicate possibility

Brian's been taking diplomacy lessons off me. 

Its like when I make my potential record breaking threads, and have to emphasise 'potential' seven times because someone will always misinterpret that as being 'definite'. 

 Learn from the best. 

More importantly the GFS12z is looking hot next week in the south. 

You had better give him some more then.....................he is a mile behind you

That's a shame - the ECM 12z op run only serves to confuse, because unlike all of the other models, it hasn't cut out the shortwave extending ENE from the main trough in four days time. So we don't see that stronger build of high pressure from the SW through Sunday, and the associated warmer air is pushed east a lot sooner than we see on the GFS 12z op run in particular.

Is this ECM op run behind the curve or seeing something the others aren't? At such short range it's unusual to have such strong disagreement. The ensembles may help to give a clearer picture.

Longer term, the issue with modelling the MJO remains, with ECM and GFS still trying to take it to the Indian Ocean for some reason. UKMO and JMA, on the other hand, show it lingering in the Pacific with some signs of heading back toward the W. Pacific. I'd like to be able to say with confidence that the UKMO/JMA solution should prevail, but this year has played so many devious tricks that I can't risk taking that leap of faith.