Although as we know - we've had far worse summers than this - and this summer to be fair to it has been better than many out of the past 8 years. But when I see what is going on just over the English Channel this has to be in some ways the hottest summer we never had. We seem to be just missing out.

10 day average 500 mb anomaly on tonight's ECM. No real sign of a major pattern shift soon with more or less average summer weather temps prevailing for most.

Been pretty average all summer - which to many is probably not that great!

Temperatures are far from average across the CET zone so far, though admittedly skewed a little by the very hot first day, and more recently characterised by some relatively warm nights as opposed to days.

The main issue seems to be an inability for the weather to properly settle down and provide reliably warm, dry conditions for an extended period of time away from the far south(east).

I wonder what one would find if they looked at UK summers during years when Europe had intense heatwaves going on - would there be a tendency for more changeable conditions to dominate, punctuated by some hot, sultry days as the westerlies pause for breath every now and then?

After all, where we sit in such situations is right where the boundary is between the hot continent and much cooler Atlantic ocean (and adjoining seas). In fact, we pretty much stick right out into it, which is almost equivalent to setting up shop literally on the road rather than next to it. So as the jet stream follows that major contrast in temperatures, it races through the UK with great frequency.

Now here's the thing - I'd be surprised if the majority of those summers didn't see a notable UK heatwave somewhere along the line, because there's nearly always a point in the season when global teleconnections drive a particularly weak, meandering jet stream, so allowing the heat to escape to the higher latitudes, which it will always be keen on doing as the atmosphere likes to restore balance in that way (though to be honest, the laws of physics favour SW-NE motion over S-N, as we know all too well from the countless near-miss plumes we've seen over the years).

We did see a very brief example of this to take us out of June and into July this year, which I reckon was both intensified and cut short by the extreme nature of tropical events in the Pacific at the time, which begs the question - was that it? Was that what should have been our notable heatwave (rather than hurried dash through the fire)?

This is where the issues with the MJO really come into play; if that returns to(ward) the W. Pacific, that could drive a mid-latitude response that gives us another bite at the apple this side of August. If not, we could be waiting until the first week of August to get anywhere much. That would of course put us well in line with the way 2003 panned out... that year kept the lid on for a fair while before a legendary release. 

This sort of thinking is why I still think Brian is in with a good shout with the possibility of the record being challenged. Stressing the word possibility 

GFS 0z is bin fodder.  Next.

Would that be because you don't like the output it's showing? I bet if it was equivalently warm in its longer-term outlook you wouldn't bin it!

In the high-res section it fits in well with the means - and it looks like a generally average period of weather coming up down here as a result. The ECM ensembles have mean highs of 23, 19, 20, 21, 22, 21, 21 for the next week for Reading and given that the July average for Reading is 22, plus the tendancy for the models to undercook highs - it's about what you'd expect.

It least it showing nationwide settled spell on the last week of July as some was hinting for a prolonged settled spell and lot of LP in Greenland so hopefully to shape up for a better August than this month.  Next weekend a fully blown LP out from no where are for the bin as it very unlikely as UK is not a breeding ground for LP to develop by itself.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhgfs1864.gif

Not a chance of this happening with same LP giving us very cool winds and same direction to NW Europe coast at low to mid 30's while the winds coming from same direction

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhgfs1861.gif

Once again it go to the bin as it very unlikely to happen and will watered down the stupid temps differences back where it was yesterday with high 20's to 30C and same on other side of the channel.

In the reliable timeframe- yes. That said, I rather like what it is showing in FI. Just wish it was in a timeframe whereby we could put more confidence in it!

That said, the MetO day 16-30 updates have been saying since the end of last week that things may settle down more generally as we move into August, so hopefully they'll be vindicated on this when the time comes. The FI of the GFS 00z ties in quite nicely with their thoughts for that period.

The models today are generally poor, though still warm at times for the south.

Well the GFS 0z operational was a cool outlier in FI and looking at individual charts out at Day10 is of little use.

The GFS ensemble pack remains relatively flatlined with no massive outliers so more of the same and probably a standard NW/SW split.

Plenty of usable weather down here with conditions deteriorating towards the NW.

Thankfully I didn't take much time off this July given that it's been poorer than the last two IMO and leaving aside the freak heat of the 1st!

Indeed, hopefully less humidity of a night too - getting a bit tired of it now so looking forward to some fresher nights should that lot verify for average temperatures. Mind you charts all over the place from run to run so really hard to pin down exactly what will happen more than 5 days out.  As Stormchaser mentioned though, I would not be surprised at all to see an August 2003 type scenario develop as these regular imports of heat into Europe just serve to keep warming things up. On the 1st July if that had lasted for 2 -3 days I think we could have broken the all time record for heat in England, certainly not the usual model watching fare this Summer as a lot of interest.

Just as well, when it came to your record high-pressure thread 

From an IMBY perspective, doesn't look bad to me. Highs mostly between 20-22C with a few cooler days here and there. Kind of what you'd expect, no?

Its an easy mistake to make that you've made there, but people aren't looking for "what you'd expect", they're looking for what they want. That's the MO thread - summer or winter. 

Very busy this week and the weekend so not always time to post my report across from my website but for those interested you can always view it here. normal service should be resumed soon.

Model Output Analysis-16/07/2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY

THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST

POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON

THURSDAY JULY 16TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deepening Low pressure area will transfer NNE from a position to the SW of Ireland to the North of Scotland tomorrow with an associated trough swing NNE over the UK later today and tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Rather warm in the SE at times then perhaps cooler generally later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains unchanged from yesterday with an extended period with it's location across the UK from the West or SW. It still shows signs of breaking up late in the period but probably maintaining a position further South in the hemisphere than is ideal for the best UK weather.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today looks much cooler for all areas than has been shown for some time with the Low pressure areas recently to the North and NW of the UK moving on an axis further South than recently allowing wind and rain bearing fronts to cross all areas but with some brighter periods in between as well. Towards the end of the period hints of better weather from the SW are shown as a ridge builds there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is not so bullish about unstable Westerlies for all, instead opting for a continuation of where we have been with Atlantic fronts and depressions holding further North than the operational and keeping the worst weather towards the NW whereas the South and SE see the best of quite a bit of dry, bright and reasonably warm conditions.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning refelct the control run as one would expect showing a lot of influence from High pressure to the SW and South deflecting rain bearing fronts towards more Northern areas which is in direct opposition to these clusters yesterday.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a new Low pressure moving across Northern areas early next week with wind and rain as a result. This Low looks to have more influence to the South too than previous depressions giving some rainfall down here too before something a little drier looks to return by midweek, at least across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning follow the raw data closely this morning.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows Low pressure crossing the UK early next week with some rain or showers for all for a time. Then later next week pressure builds from the West across the UK with fine and dry weather developing for many with temperatures slowly recovering somewhat.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows better weather later next week following a short unsettled period earlier in the week when all areas look like seeing some rain. The warmest temperatures look like holding towards the SE while elsewhere normal values of temperatures should be achieved for most of the time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows deteriorating conditions late in it's run today. The pattern of a new Low pressure early in the week is shared by ECM this morning giving all areas some rain. Conditions improve on this run midweek especially in the South with some warm and increasingly humid sunshine before Low pressure to the SW advances NE across Southern Britain delivering a much cooler and unsettled period for all to end the run with rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart today shows an Azores High and Low pressure to the North and NE with something of a trough across the UK in a Westerly flow with rain at times likely chiefly but not exclusively across the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main theme of a possible shift of emphasis to veer winds from the mild SW to a cooler NW flow has diminished somewhat today.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM

The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.8 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.4 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 84.8 pts followed by GFS at 81.0 and UKMO at 80.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.3 pts over GFS's 49.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 33.3 pts to 29.1 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

MY THOUGHTS There is still quite a bit of mileage in the pattern that we have now before something rather different is shown later in the period. So for now South definately remains best in terms of the weather, none more so than in the next 36 hours when the North is buffeted by gales and some heavy rain while the South and East apart from a few thundery showers on a weak cold front pushing NE tonight has a fair and bright weekend with some pleasant and probably fresher sunshine than recently. In the North conditions will be temporary and modest with some showers about through the weekend. Then next week we see the first signs of a change for the South as it looks increasingly likely that the South too could join in the North's changeable conditions with rain at times and rather fresher conditions as Low pressure areas make deeper inroads into the UK from off the Atlantic. It maybe that a brighter and warmer phase re-develops across the South towards the middle and end of the week before a return to Low pressure this time from the SW and principally this morning from ECM brings another bout of fresher air with wind and rain. In the far reaches GFS is a little less pessimistic this morning with more influence from the Azores ridge and while it may not bring wall to wall sunshine it may well contribute to bring back dry and bright weather for many Southern and Central regions later but as usual a long way off and subject to change. So in a nutshell some changes to come, notably around more in the way of the possibility of rain in the South as well as the North though it doesn't look like a major pattern shift and future runs could realign the expected Low pressure further North again which of course would leave the South much as we are. At least the anticipated shift of winds to a more NW source shown yesterday has lost some of it's momentum within the output today it's a case of watching future runs with interest for new trends that involve cross model support.

Next update from 09:00 Friday July 17th 2015

Hope you don't mind, Martin?

Out of curiosity, it must have taken longer to write a post saying you didn't have time to copy and paste than to actually copy and paste, which took a couple of seconds, lol. I'm probably missing something glaringly obvious. 

I'd assume it's the formatting and the fixing of the links that take the time.

I'm looking for something hotter myself, but average will definitely do. 21c and sunny is fine by me.

Now come winter, things change.. lol.

Oh I agree with that wholeheartedly. I can't complain about this summer at all at the moment. If I was picky, which I am, I'd want it much hotter. 

So... I guess ECM is top dog as usual within the four day range - the other model's suggestions for a decent Sunday have fallen off a cliff ever since it picked up the shortwave escaping ENE from the mid-Atlantic trough yesterday evening.

Yet we still see signs that the Euro Ridge has no intention of going on leave. Given the slightest excuse, it springs back into existence during the first day or two of next week on the 12z GFS and UKMO op runs.

Primarily this is a result of the jet swooping south in the mid-Atlantic, where some weak low pressure development looks like taking place. 

GFS wants to run that NE and then attempt the mid-Atlantic ridge because it seems to have a hard time coming up with anything else as uncertainty levels soar. 

UKMO, on the other hand, appears to be entertaining the idea of the low heading somewhere west of Iberia. We saw ECM briefly explore that kind of solution with the low that we're facing later this weekend, so this sort of thing is merely a point of interest at this stage.

Obviously UKMO gets my vote, with very warm conditions reaching the south by Tuesday and spreading north on Wednesday, more so than GFS manages.

I've just spotted that GEM is pretty much a hybrid of GFS and UKMO out to day 6 i.e. GFS with a more pronounced ridge affecting the UK. The model then bombs out the low as it runs NE, after which HP makes a feeble attempt at returning from the SW ahead of yet another compact mid-Atlantic storm system. This sure is a strange month pattern-wise.

Speaking of the pattern, the MJO modelling remains the same as yesterday, with UKMO and JMA stalling/about-facing while ECM (and what may be GEM) still want to follow a typical progression (despite atypical Pacific conditions...). Meanwhile, GFS has gone AWOL, which I've never seen before 

No, I don't mind at all Matty.

Your right it does take a long time to compile each day but I build it in segments in the order the charts come out, GFS first, ECM last giving me periods in between when I can get on with other early morning things. The copy and paste thing is a pain unless your in front of a desk or laptop pc.  Iphones, iPads are crap at copy and paste and once I'm away from my desk I have to rely on these for posting anything through the day.

Thanks Martin 

Any thoughts on this evenings runs? Mundane sums it up for me.