My God we sure need an improvement.

Today has to be the coldest July day I can remember - Just 13.5C and overcast grey and wet.

It can't get worse than this for July round here.

Miserable here also Gav

Not a good day

Take the rough with the smooth.  I'd wager that for your locale this month will turn out as being warmer and sunnier than the LTA.

Let's hope so, Saint.

I don't know what it's been like in your neck of the woods, but summer so far here generally has been utter gash, especially this month. While June was by no means wonderful, we did have more by way of dry days, even if they were often cloudy and cool. This month the weather has got progressively worse since the brief very warm spell that kicked off July.

Blimey, sounds as though the weather has taken a notable turn for the worse even in Cambridgeshire, Gavin. I imagine that your area had until recently been one of the lucky few, but it seems that everyone is in the same unsettled boat for the time being.

Somebody earlier in the thread compared this summer to that of 1985 in terms of the persistent unsettled weather northern areas. have experienced. Were some of the model runs from yesterday to verify (heaven forbid!), it quite possibly would end up being as bad as that summer was in my location. 1985 was the wettest summer of the entire 20th century in Glasgow apparently.

Looking at the 15 day ensemble run from this morning's ECM, there seems to be little support at this stage for any significant ridging over Scandinavia to develop fully. If anything, extended troughing between Iceland & Scandinavia to be more in favour. More runs needed and all that..

Met O with a ridge at day 4:

GFS settles things down for England at 144. 

Looks like a fresh week with increasing sunshine for the south as we climb out of the current stygian gloom.

Better GFS 12z, even for up here after next weekend!

I just hope it continue this way as the models had been very wrong about last Friday and today as last weekend charts was showing decent Sunday here and normal dry Friday and no models haven't pick up the 12-14C maxes and double wash out days.

A promising GFS 12z op run as the Atlantic trough trends still further to the northwest. Some serious heat returning on the other side of The Channel from day 8, with 39*C in central parts of France on day 11.

UKMO has other ideas though - the trough to our NW doesn't get reinforcements from the southwest, as that area of low pressure instead drops down west of Iberia. The day 6 result has hints of a plume, but too messy to promise much:

On the other hand, the movement of the colder air (and lower heights in the above image) from east to west when looking from day 5 to day 6 is encouraging.

A similar retrogression of the trough features on the GFS run, tying in with height rises to our E and NE.

I'm tempted to let my mind run through the various means of drawing some of the continental heat our way (I'm very keen on seeing a proper August heatwave for once in a blue moon!), but the low pressure to our NW needs to be sorted out before it's reasonable to start thinking about finer details such as the orientation of the high pressure.

Anyone know why the ECM runs on WZ have been appearing rather late this weekend? Tonight's 12z is also late.

No idea... they're on time on the Meteociel website
(http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0)

It's a strange one from ECM this evening though, as the trough lifts out north in fine fashion, yet high pressure fails to build in behind. I find this most peculiar - as if there's a huge area of slight instability getting in the way:

Needless to say I find GFS' version of events more believable - which is the first time I've felt that way about it in a long time!

12 Celsius at Lunchtime today in the London area.... we reach new lows!!! 

Today I think many places in East Anglia and the South East had a record cold day for this date in July. It was incredible to see the thermometer stuck at between 12 and 13C all day.

Up until now my part of the country hadn't done too bad really for this summer - But things have been going downhill for the past 2 weeks. Never thought I would see a day like this though.

That's not actually too bad a run from ECM towards the end, in my view. While high pressure does not build in towards the end of the run to the extent it does on the GFS 12z op, we can see a high beginning to take some shape in the atlantic and slowly move towards us as the LP shown for a week's time gradually pulls away north. As it does that we can also see that the HP over Greenland is slowly but surely starting to wain. We now have to hope that these positive signs are maintained and built on in tomorrow's model output and over the following few days.

brrr high summer 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&DATE=1437912000&CONT=ukuk&LAND=UK&KEY=UK&SORT=2&UD=0&INT=06&TYP=temperatur&ART=karte&RUBRIK=akt&R=310&CEL=C&SI=mph

was warmer xmas day I think 

Some very cool nights for July to come this week

Temps below for a while if this run is to be believed

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Think I would call that no mans world imo for uk at best David but its easy to take to much from one run.

I've been optimistic all summer to now, and with good reason as it was excellent up to a couple of weeks ago, but even taking into account a few positive spins, it can't be denied that the current outputs are complete cock, unless the odd flirtation with heat for a day or so is your thing. It's not mine. 

The only gratification I get from all this is that Madden looks as big a dickhead as ever. 

Well, that's the thing - we are all looking for different things. The output to me suggests average temperatures, with some warmer days thrown in - mid/high twenties for England.

Met O 144 with High pressure bossing things. 

GEM@ 168 brings in the warmth:

Just purely on face value, but it takes all of this week for the GFS to reach average temps. Fairly unsettled as well. Beyond that? Well, you only have to look at the two charts linked up the page to see we are in the same old pattern of chalk and cheese

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JULY 27TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An Atlantic depression will move East across Northern England today and the North Sea later tonight and tomorrow. A slow moving trough will lie across Central Britain with a strong Westerly flow over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Generally on the cool side but a few warmer interludes possible in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the flow blowing strongly across Southern Britain and Northern France. It slowly weakens and splits later in the week with one arm over Iberia while the other drifts gently further North. The axis then runs across Scotland through week 2, still weak before strengthening and moving back South again at the end of the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a mixed bag over the next two weeks. The current windy and cool regime will be replaced by calmer weather from midweek with a lot of dry weather but still some showers in the NW. Temperatures will remain rather suppressed given the time of year but it could be marginally warmer in the SE next weekend. Through Week 2 things stay rather benign ith the best conditions in the South near a ridge. Then late in the period cool NW winds around a deep depression to the NE brings a return to cool and changeable weather to most parts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run looks rather better in regard to warmer conditions across the SE from later this week and the South seems to be largely dry from the same time as High pressure to the SW throws a ridge our way. There will still be some more changeable conditions for the North and more generally late in the period with the best weather over the two weeks likely to focus around the South and SW.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days show not a lot of cheer with 40% of members wanting a cool NW flow over the UK at that time. 25% show a very inclement trough across the UK from Low pressure close to Eastern England while the remainder show variations on a cool West or NW theme but less unsettled than the rest.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a slender ridge developing across the South from midweek with quieter and drier if not overly warm conditions as a result. The ridge looks like building further over the weekend with fine and warmer weather likely for England and Wales with more changeable conditions restricted to the North and NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning also show slack High pressure developing over the South of the UK later in the week returning dry, pleasant conditions following the next few days of windy and changeable conditions with rain and showers.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a similar theme in regard to better, calmer weather later in the week but it takes a little longer for warmer weather of note to move into the SE before fronts reclaim some territory over the UK next week firstly to the NW and eventually to the SW with rain perhaps thundery for a time taking it's time to reach all areas from the West innitially and SW later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today is less kind in bringing the better conditions later this week and the weekend instead showing showery Low pressure slipping South over Ireland and later deepening as it drifts back NE over the UK 1 week from now maintaining the unsettled and largely rather cool theme going.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today looks very complex in it's movements of slack High and Low pressure in the coming week to 10 days. This morning's offering shows some improvements later this week but keeps the warmer temperatures over Europe until a deepening Low moves quickly NE over the NW next weekend and sucks warmer air then up into the SE. Some rain would affect the North and West in particular from this feature and maybe the South too briefly. The end of the run shows pressure rebuilding across the UK later next week with drier conditions for many as a result.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart this morning is much better with the trough to the NW shown further NW today with a much better aligned ridge towards Southern Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend again this morning is focusing on a return to a more NW/SE split to develop in the weather with the driest and warmest conditions towards the SE

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.5 pts followed by UKMO at 95.0 pts and GFS at 94.2 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 84.8 pts followed by UKMO at 81.6 and GFS at 81.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 56.0 pts over GFS's 50.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.2 pts to 29.0 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The fog seems as thick as ever this morning as all models seem to struggle with what seems short term synoptics let alone longer term projections. The message this week seems more or less agreed though with some small scale differences between the outputs illustrated. Leaving these aside the general message is for the current windy and cool weather to be eroded from the South and West by midweek as a slack ridge builds across the South bringing dry and fine weather in light winds and sunny spells. Temperatures aren't expected to be spectacular though as the inherent air across the UK originated from Northern latitudes. Then from the weekend the waters muddy as there seems a variety of options shown, none of which would deliver anything particularly noteworthy or bad and some may in fact bring a lot of fine and dry weather if never overly warm. There could be a window of opportunity for the SE to get some warmth from Europe at the coming weekend but it looks favourable to push that away East or SE again later as all output that goes that far in the future has the desire to bring back unsettled and cool weather from the Atlantic again towards the end of the period with GFS showing a very chilly NW flow at the end highlighted by it's clusters this morning. In among all this confusion on specifics the outcome will probably end up that a NW/SE split in the weather is the maintained theme of the weather with the North gaining the most momentum from an Atlantic that refuses to lie down this Summer. While uppers across the UK continue from almost all output to show below average levels across most of Britain it looks unlikely that any sustained warmth is likely over the two weeks away from the SE but it looks equally unlikely that much in the way of rainfall will affect the South either through much of the period.

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday July 28th 2015

If the GFS and ECM op runs this morning have it right, it looks as though we may finally see the back of that darn Greenland High next week. GFS indicated this in successive runs yesterday and it looks like ECM may now be starting to smell the coffee as well. If that happens, that in itself would be a big step to us hopefully getting more summer-like weather on a wider scale than has been the case over the past 5-6 weeks. As soon as the models showed pressure rising over Greenland back in mid-June, I knew we'd be in trouble.

Greenland High, pack your bags, head for the airport and then come back about 5 months from now, when no doubt some people here at least will likely be glad to see you!