Try here Jires, goes out to 144 hrs on scroll but you can hack the image urls to go out to the full 240hrs in 6 hour increments 

http://www.vedur.is/vedur/sjovedur/atlantshafskort/#teg=urkoma

Looking more and more like this Summer is about to go 1985 on us.

Oh well, I've never been keen on last minute-type hot weather as it's often associated with high humidity anyway.

Indeed, will be interesting to see how it stands against the mean charts when they are issued later but certainly one to watch. While I can't speak for the UK, temps this summer are really struggling in my part of the world, with daytime temps ranging between just 14 to 16c by day for the majority of this month  which seems almost unprecedented for what is traditionally the warmest time of the year. This morning's model runs offer little light at the end of that chilly, dank tunnel.

brrrr Younger Dryas is about looks cooler close up

gfs n/e

I was thinking that (1985) the other day. A breakdown late in the 2nd week (Live Aid weekend) after a reasonable start to the month and the rest of July and all of August remained cool and unsettled. This does have a 1985 feel about it. The North and Scotland suffered particularly badly that year.

My gut feel now, is that this year could well be similar.

Given that the high summer pattern is often set at this sort of time, (perhaps this is the basis of St Swithuns Day) I can fully understand the "summer is over" sort of posts. Yes, we can have summery weather in September, but for those in the North, an Indian summer spell will feel like scoring from the penalty spot in the 95th minute.. when you're losing 5-0!

So far as the models are concerned, I would not look beyond 4 days or so - I don't think there is much point in looking at next Sat's deep low and thinking it is likely to verify.

As I'm getting married next Saturday here's hoping GFS verifies

ECM looks potentially showery to my not particularly trained eyes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif

Look decent on your day with above average temps as the heat in France had been wiped out so only low to mid 20's at best which is comfortable when wearing wedding suit.  Let hope it doesn't stick a stupid LP inside us on next Saturday as they insert it on Monday and Wednesday out of blue from yesterday.  That link I put was supposed to be like that on Wednesday but now changed due to poor data sets.

Fingers crossed for.you too, I am watching Friday carefully. It seems we may just be shower dodging rather than full blown rain event I hope.

Wonder what's been up with ECM today. This morning's run came out late (don't know what time it eventually appeared) and this evening's is about an hour late at the moment.

ECM and UKMO are having none of GFS' midweek UK storm system, sending the low down to the Med. instead with a weak ridge of high pressure to the north of it managing to provide some sort-of-settled conditions for us (some showers could break out each day).

Longer term, ECM and UKMO are finally showings some signs of the Atlantic storm track shifting west and allowing ridges to become more prominent over Europe again.

UKMO seems pretty progressive with that, ECM a bit less so. Either way, with so much heat drifting about between Africa and various parts of Europe, I continue to keep an eye out for anything that could draw that toward our shores.

I may as well post the most interesting chart of the evening from that perspective:

...but even this cherry-picked example is far from ideal, as the jet continues to carry low pressure NE toward the UK rather than leaving it to stall somewhere to our SW.

With the MJO looking increasingly likely to return to the Pacific, where it was in late June, I'd not be surprised if some 6 to 10 days into August we saw another case of temperatures soaring at an astonishing rate over the space of a few days before coming crashing down again. Remember just suddenly the heat arrived at the end of June? The highest temperature for the year to date went from 27.8*C as of 26th June to 30.5*C on the 30th, and then of course 1st July jumped up to 36.7*C, after which no official station has managed to reach the 30*C benchmark even once.

This is such a weird summer 

Here's the GEM at the edge of reason (144) Dry in the S wetter in the N.

Yes it good to see both Euro models not having of this LP that GFS kept churning out in the last 2 days so hopefully to back down otherwise ignore it.

Also in the short term, some major heat are developing in the E Med out of blue which mean might be a good signs might restore a nationwide proper settled weather here that the models had shown us for early August before they threw out of this idea. 

GFS 0z 120 hours  shows HP holding sway the S.  Its about as far as one can look with any degree of certainty.  Its a decent longer GFS run out to 10 days with a deep low kept to the W of NI and Scotland.  This allows the S to warm up again as warmer air is drawn up from the south.  All a long way off but those that were wrist slashing yesterday might take a look...

Significant improvements, especially for the south in both the short and longer term this morning.

Firstly this Wednesday/Thursday potential rainfest has now been moved further south.

and next weeks dartboard low is now being progged further north, this is backed up by GEM too. This ushers in +10c 850Hpa temps into the south.

Lets hope the trend continues. 

Hope so Gusty as per as Met going for a better August seem to happen right this time.  Good they back down both stupid autumnal Low on wed and next weekend.  Temps wise would be average to above and nothing showing anything hot but hope further runs to bring some much needed hot weather as I haven't see one yet in 2015 summer that can last 3-5 days long.

I wouldn't say "especially for the northern half of the UK", I would say only for the northern half of the UK. Second half of this month aside, this summer has been more than decent for the South 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY JULY 26TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An Atlantic depression will move East into Ireland today with associated fronts crossing most areas and becoming slow moving over Scotland tomorrow in the developing cyclonic flow across the British Isles, strong in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Generally on the cool side but a few warmer interludes possible in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to blow strongly on a much more Southerly trajectory than is normal for this time of year, currently over Southern England and Northern France. Through this coming week it weakens and becomes less defined. It then moves North to Scotland briefly and increases in strength again next weekend before weakening once more and still lying too far South to guarantee dry conditions for the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to indicate an unsettled week to come though after midweek things look better and somewhat warmer for the South as a ridge from the SW holds sway. Then a NW/SE split seems likely to re-establish across the UK with some fine and at times warm weather in the SE while the North and West sees windy and wet weather at times as deep Low pressure passes by to the NW. Towards the end of the run Low pressure sinks further South again to end the period with rain at times for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run looks very similar to the operational this morning with some decent weather coming up for the South and East once we leave the current unsettled phase around midweek. It will likely become very warm in the SE next weekend with only a slow decline back into cooler and more unsettled weather experienced elsewhere shown thereafter towards the end of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days still indicate High pressure out to the SW in two weeks time with varying degrees of influence shown for the British isles with some members showing a lot of fine and dry weather with warm weather in the SE to others with a strong Atlantic influence with rain at times especially over the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a period of slack conditions from midweek under a weak ridge. A lot of dry and bright weather is likely across the UK but with local showers, warming up in the SE towards the weekend but eyes will have to watch for thundery developments from an upper cool pool of air to the SW of the UK at the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the first half of the week changeable and windy with showers as the deep Low crosses the UK and away into Europe by midweek. Pressure then builds from the SW, stronger than last nights charts, making the threat of rain for the South after midweek much lower.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM is gone with the GFS route this morning indicating unsettled and windy conditions for all until midweek when pressure builds across Southern Britain from the SW. A NW/SE split is then likely to develop with fine and warm conditions likely for the South and East with just brief interruptions from any rain while the North and West see windy and more changeable conditions as deep Low pressure remains to the NW

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today still shows a threat of more extensive rainfall in the South for a time midweek but then moves into a similar phase as GEM with a build of pressure from the South introducing warm and humid conditions down here towards next weekend. Pressure remains Low to the NW with rain at times in these regions and this shows signs of pushing East into the humid air towards the South and East later next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM looks much better this morning too with the same NW/SE split in the weather developing from later this coming week. The next few days will remain unsettled and windy with rain at times in all regions but as pressure builds somewhat across the South of the UK later this week the South and East will become dry and eventually warmer with only the threat of flirtations of rain from the more changeable NW at times and maybe from a thundery SE late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night reflects that Low pressure will lie somewhere to the NW of the UK with a SW flow across the UK, warmest towards the SE where only small amounts of rain are likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning is focusing on a return to a more NW/SE split to develop in the weather with the driest and warmest conditions towards the SE

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.6 pts followed by UKMO at 95.0 pts and GFS at 94.2 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 84.9 pts followed by UKMO at 81.8 and GFS at 81.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 55.7 pts over GFS's 49.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.1 pts to 28.9 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The models have seemed to jostle around with synoptics which always seemed to lead to conditions over the UK to be poor in recent days so it's nice to see that they have come to some sort of togetherness this morning in that conditions might not become too bad again for parts of the South and East once this current universally unsettled and windy phase of weather over the UK moves away towards midweek. It looks like the rise of pressure from the SW later in the week may hold dominance for a lot longer than was previously documented as the predicted deep Low which was highlighted to end it is now scheduled on a course further to the NW leaving the South and East largely unscathed and possibly scooping up some warm and muggy air into the SE next weekend. This leaves the North and West with the standard weather fayre that has afflicted these regions all summer with further rain and showers in strong and blustery SW winds at times. However, further South and East look like seeing a fair amount of very useable conditions for outside events and activities with only the occasional threat of an intervention from the West by a cold front and a little rain or indeed a thundery shower from mainland Europe. Perhaps the most encouraging thing shown this morning is the feed of warm air over Europe able to make some inroads into the UK and not be bottled up in situ by Low pressure events across the UK. Let's hope this is the first steps towards a better August predicted by the UKMO for some while now and that the models continue to expand their improvements to include those folk up North soon.

Next update from 09:00 Monday July 27th 2015

Phew.

Both ECM and GFS op runs seem to be hinting at pressure attempting to rise over Scandi around the 240hrs mark on their runs this morning. Too far out to have any faith in that at the moment, but maybe, if there is to be a change during August to more settled weather generally as we go further into August, then it could come from a Scandi High rather than the Azores. Anything to get us out of this wretched pattern will do!

The mean of the ECM ens does support a pressure rise of sorts over Scandinavia but continues to show lower pressure dominating the NW Atlantic out to 240hrs. The ECM op run this morning appears to be a bit of an outlier regarding the influence of that Scandi ridge this far west, but it may be picking up on something all the same.

A whole host of positive trends to be found this morning, with decent results for Wed-Sat on the 00z op runs in general (relatively speaking - as in, we escape what could have been some dire conditions).

It could even turn warm in the south by Friday.

Beyond that, we have signs of height rises to the NE as others have pointed out. With the MJO heading toward Pacific phase 6 or thereabouts, a look at the composite for past years reveals some degree of connection between that and what the models are experimenting with:

This is why I've been banging on about needing the MJO to return to the Pacific for so long now... its a shame really that its undergone this extended period of wandering around somewhat aimlessly rather than returning swiftly to the Pacific, as that could have brought about a much warmer final week to July.

If the MJO goes on to really kick off in phase 6 such as it did in late June (likely given the El Nino event in place), a greater influence from blocking to our NE can be expected, with the trough locating further SW - add the exceptional heat in parts of Europe into the equation and things could get very interesting.

We do have some leeway with the MJO influence, as development in phase 5 also promotes a trough to our SW with higher heights over Europe. Phase 7 is not so nice though, as that encourages the jet to ramp up with a westerly regime taking over.

In light of this, I'm glad to see the latest MJO outlooks (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif) taking the MJO to the phase 5/6 quadrant in the majority of cases (GFS the odd one out with the MJO stalled out in its current location).

I like that sort of set-up, with us here benefitting from an easterly feed. Not normally an overly warm set-up, but I'd take low/mid-20's & settled for august. Your post ties in nicely with James' excellent analysis - and indeed longer term Met Office suggestions.

Fingers crossed, but many a slip twixt cup & lip.