Yes, it is an ironic tragedy that we get perfect winter synoptics in mid-summer. The Channel lows of the past few days would have been a corker in January .

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

GFS ems don't look anything special.

It is unusual to see subzero 850ºC ensemble mean values at this time of the year: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png 

Still at least I have managed to cut the grass over the last couple of days - lovely and damp lush 

I think the Met Office outlooks are probably about right when they call for slightly more settled weather at the start of next month but nothing really notable in terms of warmth (and still below average away from southern parts).

Still it could always be worse...I guess it could be wetter*? 

(*I mean in the outlook - I am not referring to the 200%+ rainfall we have had here so far this month)

Met O 120 - High pressure influencing England's weather.  Pleasantly warm dry and sunny I expect, especially further S.

Met O 144 - Increasingly warm and sunny for many.

I guess it might/probably would feel pleasant in the sunshine, in the south at least, but those charts do not scream "warmth" to me. 

It is not a washout (and neither is the GFS) but away from the SE it is all rather disappointingly cool for the time of year: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn663.gif 

Hi Doc

From the 120 chart I would expect urban SE to reach 23c, combined with sunshine, that is warm in my book.  As for the Met O  144 chart that I was referring too, I expect some similar places will push into very warm 25c territory.  Im not referring to the GFS charts.

WI

Sunday looks as though it might be a half-decent day up here if UKMO verifies.

Yes I agree, the +144hr chart looks warm in parts of the SE, the 120hr one around average (as the 23ºC in urban parts would equate to), but it is still slim pickings.

The outlook could be worse but it could be an awful lot better. The continuously suppressed temperatures of late in the north look like continuing and are, to be frank, a bit depressing. I would love to see 18ºC+ for a few days in a row never mind 23ºC!

I've almost got the stage of looking out for "snow probabilities" on the GFS ensemble charts: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

I sympathise Doc.

Please tell me, given the large area of -ve sst anomalies out to your west in the North Atlantic, what kind of reasonably stable synoptic pattern would be required to bring Aberdeen some decent warmth before the summer is out?

The same thing that normally does, the UK's (allegedly) climatic prevailing wind direction - a good old fashioned southwesterly (preferable without the fronts associated with a nearby Low) 

Here's the ECM 12z so far - it has the SWly just not a long fetch warm one. Still that would be warmer than recently!

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015072712/ECM1-120.GIF 

A glorious, summery start to August if tonight's ECM was to verify

A lot of uncertainty with how far east the low gets next weekend... all bets are off in terms of how warm it gets and whether the northwest escapes the rain! Usually with the MJO behaving as it is, I'd favour the low stalling out further west as per UKMO and GEM's 12z op runs, but with the unusual SST situation in the North Atlantic, I'm wary of the jet continuing to pack a bit more of a punch than usual.

Beyond that, changes in tropical forcing suggest that we should keep an eye out for the next low digging down to our SW, but as yet the models seem hesitant to try out that idea. They often struggle during times like this, as the balance of power adjusts by the day.

Yet again though, the N. Atlantic cold pool may prove to be the spanner in the works. We're in unfamiliar territory these days!

The main consistency I can see from the models within the 10 day range just now is that the much cursed Greenland High looks as though it may finally get chased as we go through next week, if the last few ECM and GFS op runs are right in their thinking. Should that happen, although it will be by no means a guarantee in itself of a switch to something better, it should help. Also encouraging to see pressure trying to rise over Scandinavia next week; let's hope this trend is maintained also.

I'm trying to recall the last time we had a proper Scandi High in control of our weather for any length of time; thinking back I reckon it was late July last year which gave my area it's hottest spell of last summer. That sure seems an awful long time ago now!

It was last September. That brought temps into the high teens/low 20s over many days here which is warmer than anything I have seen this summer so far.

Thanks for refreshing my memory there, CP. We could sure do with one of those Scandi Highs now!

I'd love to see that repeated this year.

The 18z GFS op takes that low quite a bit further south, which is a scenario that the 12z ECM ensembles encompassed so entirely plausible. The adjustment is notable even at day 5.

With such a weak jet in the vicinity of the low I can see the potential for that low to at least temporarily stall to our west.

This particular run gets close, but doesn't seal the deal. The reason is that the upstream section of jet progresses toward the UK while the low is situated in a prime location to benefit. If that area of stronger jet stream winds didn't arrive so soon and/or was weaker, we'd see the low staying out west for longer.

With such notable changes from one run to the next, there's no telling which way the trend is likely to go... tomorrow could prove interesting one way or another 

UKMO sticking to its guns. An increasingly warm feeling weekend with sun for many, especially in the east of the UK, influenced by a Prussian High and continental flow as we head into next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhgfs2344.gif

30C on a Thursday and it seem to get only hot during the week and never on a weekend.  Otherwise it a very good run with many warm settled days status quo as we had in late June and early July.  It seem last Sunday rain would be the last for a long while, good riddance as it been too much rain recently.

It did went down to 12C on Sunday noon time so that really colder than July minimum average.  Not interesting anyway and glad it thwarted it when it rose to near 18C in the evening and back to 23C yesterday and today probably the same or 24C which is my local average.  So glad the models doesn't show anything silly cool weather ocne this poor July is out of the way.  It now joined with July 07-12 levels.