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bledur
13 August 2015 12:05:41


NMM model for 12 noon UK time (13:00 French time)



 


Actual radar for same time:



 


 


Pretty appalling performance for 5 hours out. Even at the initiation time the model was nothing like reality.


 


The stuff in the southwest is rather uncannily accurate, but it totally missed the rain in the southeast. Not a drop on the model!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Even at the initiation time the model was nothing like reality. That is the problem , if it is wrong to start with ,it will always be wrong.Too much faith put in the models sometimes and forecasts should take more  account of observations.

Zubzero
13 August 2015 12:17:35


Even at the initiation time the model was nothing like reality. That is the problem , if it is wrong to start with ,it will always be wrong.Too much faith put in the models sometimes and forecasts should take more  account of observations.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


 


I do wonder if it's a display issue as it's picked up the rain in the sw well. 


And if you look at the uk view, then for France you can sometimes see precipitation on the view of France but not the uk.


 


French view http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015081306/nmm_fr1-1-14-0.png?13-13


Uk View http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015081306/nmm_uk1-1-14-0.png?13-13 

Arcus
13 August 2015 12:17:37
Amber warning for parts of the SE out now, predicting a second batch of storms later this afternoon.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
schmee
13 August 2015 12:17:43
Rain has eased off after moderate to heavy thundery rain.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Global Warming
13 August 2015 12:28:17

Thunderstorm in central London right now. Been very gloomy with steady rain all morning.

Rob K
13 August 2015 12:29:58


 


 


I do wonder if it's a display issue as it's picked up the rain in the sw well. 


And if you look at the uk view, then for France you can sometimes see precipitation on the view of France but not the uk.


 


French view http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015081306/nmm_fr1-1-14-0.png?13-13


Uk View http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015081306/nmm_uk1-1-14-0.png?13-13 


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


 


Nothing for the SE UK even on the French view. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015081306/nmm_fr1-1-5-0.png?13-13


 


Just had a very close lightning strike in central London 4 or 5 mins ago.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
stophe
13 August 2015 12:33:01

Amber warning for parts of the SE out now, predicting a second batch of storms later this afternoon.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Ian  DJs Folkestone weather shield must be malfunctioning 

Sevendust
13 August 2015 12:33:45


 


 


Nothing for the SE UK even on the French view. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015081306/nmm_fr1-1-5-0.png?13-13


 


Just had a very close lightning strike in central London 4 or 5 mins ago.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Very poor modelling


Meanwhile, backbuilding line from Boulogne to Ashford at the moment

Twister
13 August 2015 12:37:51




Indeed, went black as yer hat for a time once the thundery part cleared away, enough to cause street light to turn themselves on. I did get a bit nervous as I could see the "lift" in the cloud base thinking it was going to turn tornadic but thankfully all it had done was to produce further heavy rain and a few rumbles in the air. I got 16 mm out of this event but I know areas only a few miles from here will have had double the amount, especially as there is flooding in places around the town (torrential rain fallen onto baked hard ground and poor roadside drainage).

It's now brightening up again as I type, but there's still this evening's potential to think about. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


I had wondered what the cloud motion was like (being stuck in the office, it was too dark to tell). 


As you say, looks like we're set to get the brunt of the batch of storms later this afternoon. Amber warning, just in time for the commute home. Hopefully Jive Buddy won't get too inundated with calls of flooding to properties.

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Zubzero
13 August 2015 12:52:31


 


 


Nothing for the SE UK even on the French view. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015081306/nmm_fr1-1-5-0.png?13-13


 


Just had a very close lightning strike in central London 4 or 5 mins ago.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I still think it's a display issue (can you view the nmm from any other source?)


 


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome/runs/2015081306/arome-1-6-0.png?13-10 


The new to view AROME model showed the storms/showers in the Southeast 

Jive Buddy
13 August 2015 12:54:46


 


I had wondered what the cloud motion was like (being stuck in the office, it was too dark to tell). 


As you say, looks like we're set to get the brunt of the batch of storms later this afternoon. Amber warning, just in time for the commute home. Hopefully Jive Buddy won't get too inundated with calls of flooding to properties.


Originally Posted by: Twister 


Thankfully (for me), I'm the Sector On-Call Coordinator at the moment, so I get to call others out  (unless it's a major incident, then I have to go too )


Rain started here now - heavy, but not Duane like. Just had a couple of rumbles of thunder, and one flash (of lightning)...

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Rob K
13 August 2015 12:59:36


 


I still think it's a display issue (can you view the nmm from any other source?)


 


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome/runs/2015081306/arome-1-6-0.png?13-10 


The new to view AROME model showed the storms/showers in the Southeast 


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


 


Perhaps. Looking at that AROME model, it goes against the Amber warning for this afternoon - virtually no rain over the area for the time of the warning on that model, other than the first hour or so (4-5pm).

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Robsterwebb
13 August 2015 13:04:20
is it me or does it look like it's fizzling out somewhat?
Stormchaser
13 August 2015 13:10:50


 


 Nothing for the SE UK even on the French view. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015081306/nmm_fr1-1-5-0.png?13-13


 


Just had a very close lightning strike in central London 4 or 5 mins ago.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I don't think that version of the model is initialised properly - there's often no sign of the data assimilation that would match up the starting point with actual observations.


A waste of potential IMO... as it's the only place I know of where you can see hourly charts.


 


In other news, there's some clearer skies coming up from the S/SE that could allow temps to jump up a bit to the low 20's for CS England, perhaps nudging the mid-20's for the SE... they could see both the most rain and the highest temps today. You lose a little, you win a little (or vice versa IMBY).

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Rob K
13 August 2015 13:27:19


 


 


I don't think that version of the model is initialised properly - there's often no sign of the data assimilation that would match up the starting point with actual observations.


A waste of potential IMO... as it's the only place I know of where you can see hourly charts.


 


In other news, there's some clearer skies coming up from the S/SE that could allow temps to jump up a bit to the low 20's for CS England, perhaps nudging the mid-20's for the SE... they could see both the most rain and the highest temps today. You lose a little, you win a little (or vice versa IMBY).


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


The more rain the merrier IMO. My garden could soak up feet of water at the moment.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
colin46
13 August 2015 13:27:21
forecast was for heavy thunderstorms here in sth.Wales today,it's been dry all day so far with no sign of rain! ...forecasters wrong again. Just looks to be a southeast event.
shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
Twister
13 August 2015 13:29:12
Pic of flooding in New Romney this morning:
https://www.facebook.com/ukweatherforecast/photos/a.324166630979614.78834.320341941362083/978083872254550/?type=1&theater 
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Brian Gaze
13 August 2015 13:29:21

Dog day here. Overcast this morning and steady rain since lunch. Does it get more boring than this?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Jive Buddy
13 August 2015 13:32:14

Pic of flooding in New Romney this morning:
https://www.facebook.com/ukweatherforecast/photo/a...


Originally Posted by: Twister 


Just been asked to ready my team for power cut call out, Romney Marsh

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
The Beast from the East
13 August 2015 13:35:11

Is that it? So much for the Amber warning


Radar looks clear now

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Essan
13 August 2015 13:42:06


Is that it? So much for the Amber warning


Radar looks clear now


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Er, have you read the warning?

Of course it's clear, the storms aren't expected to develop  until later this afternoon/evening ....

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Frostbite80
13 August 2015 13:42:51


Is that it? So much for the Amber warning


Radar looks clear now


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

i thought overnight and tomorrow was meant to be the main event

Elstevio
13 August 2015 13:43:10

Not a drop here yet and looks like it may even drift in a NW direction away from us. Only 0.6mm rainfall so far this month we could certainly do with some!!!

Aylsham, North Norfolk
The Beast from the East
13 August 2015 13:43:58




Er, have you read the warning?

Of course it's clear, the storms aren't expected to develop  until later this afternoon/evening ....


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Ok, cheers!


Hopefully the main course still to come

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Arcus
13 August 2015 13:53:03

Doosey of a cell spring up near Amiens in the past hour. Signs of multiple storms breaking out in the vicinity, looks like this is the area due to push northwards later.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl

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