Much cooler end to November still being hinted at on the 18z

Plenty of support for the ECM op run in its ensemble, with some going colder still:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Even one or two runs giving ice days beyond day 10

There's a cluster from day 9 I'll grant you, but the mean is still +8 max. Best not to focus on the ops just yet. For day 5 out I always go by the mean or a combination of mean and clustering.

A trend maybe, but a more NW flow is now more likely than a WSW flow, but it's a fair way off calling snow to lowland UK. It will however in comparison to the last few weeks feel decidedly chilly.

I'll take decent support for a NW flow and "decidedly chilly by comparison" very gratefully thanks.

Wouldn't dream of anticipating lowland snow on the basis of 240 hr charts at the best of times, never mind against the background of the models' long-range westerly signal outlined by Fergusson earlier in the day.

......... Although the 00z goes colder still!..... 

Each run seems to be trending colder at the moment!......... 

The ensembles have trended even cooler this morning with growing support for a cold polar incursion next weekend that would certainly bring the risk of wintry showers to higher ground in the north. 

Beyond that there seems to be also some support for some sort of low in the North Sea from the GEM and ECM that would make for a cool and showery period of weather.

 Yes I think that summarises it very well and succinctly. 

its looking like a cool down.  Great synoptics potentially but perhaps a little wasted this autumn.  Good for my CET prediction if it CAN get much colder though

a tad too early I'd agree , nice to see though considering many were saying mild mild mild for the next few weeks

given the nino base state, where is the gulf of alaska ridge coming from tom ? (granted it could end up being a transient feature but its a impressive anomoly for a nino november)

0z ECM ensembles for Reading (a long time since I've posted one of these!)

Latest GFS is pretty similar with a couple of cold shots, interspersed with milder air as the highs topple and rebuild.

It'll be interesting to see if the signal for HP to ridge North is being overdone or the toppling element - the latter could lead to a more stable cooler pattern, the former not much of interest at all

From past experience I feel wise to leave the potential cold and snow until it's within the 4-5 day range at most.

In the meantime, the coming week looks very busy for the UK forecasting business, with most days seeing the impacts of active areas of low pressure as they sweep from west to east along an energetic jet stream.

Following the deluge across the north today (particularly Cumbria and North Wales), there's scope for some very strong winds at times and large amounts of rain on each of Tue-Thu (from separate systems), and again sometime Fri-Sat. In general, the rain has a worrying habit of being most persistent across the northern half of the UK, though the end of the week may see things flip around.

The strongest winds seem favoured to affect the southern two-thirds of the UK, hitting different areas each time with gusts that could exceed 60 mph for a time on Tuesday, for example. With the lows fairly small and fast moving, these bouts of severe winds look to be fairly brief but still pack a heavy punch.

If the weekend does turn out to be increasingly cold and snowy later on, forecasting teams nation-wide are going to be red-eyed and wilting by the start of the following week! 

GFS 12z generally unsettled and sometimes cold with wintry/snow showers in some places between periods of milder, wetter weather.

London snowrow climbs to 6 on the 12z update.

Well the topple/rebuild signal is still there on the GFS 12z:-

Then another one a few days on:-

Followed by:-

Would make forecasting a bit tricky I'd imagine- cold air/mild/cold etc.

Assuming it comes off somewhere close to as currently shown it does go to show the downsides of things like the longer range ECM set - good at running with current signals, not so good at picking up changes longer term. That said I think Mr Ferguson mentioned MOGREPS wasn't onboard with relentless West to East stuff <shrug>

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015111412/ECM1-168.GIF?14-0

Stronger ridging from ECM than GFS

But I still cant help the feeling that this is our first "led up the garden path" moment of the season!

Based on the latest GFS run very much so for Aberdeen Michael. 

516dam, -9c 850Hpa temps and -3c 925Hpa's, 34F, precipitation and a NNW 25 mph all support snow next Saturday afternoon and evening.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGPD