some very nice trends in the pack will ecm buy some off it or has gfs smelt the gravy first

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=150&mode=0&carte=1

Some lower temps are certainly on the way ,  a chilly end to November is on the cards

That is what you call a Northerly! Stunning

Indeed, quite a contrast to the very mild conditions we had throughout the first half of November and the latter part of October.

At least it will feel a bit more like "normal", at least compared to the dross  we've endured all year

I can quite clearly remember following the model output during the Xmas 2012/New Year 2013 period. At the end of December 2012 there wasn't really much if anything in the models to suggest that things would start to change noticeably as we went further into January '13. That festive season was predominantly unsettled and fairly mild from what I recall and that continued into the early days of January. It was from the second week of Jan 2013 that things began to change to a distinctly colder and drier pattern.

As you say Ian, the back end of 2013 was something else altogether. Best forgotten IMO.

of course i meant the start of 2013.

Could get interesting if this trend continues...

It seems likely that the GFS 12z op run was over-amplifying the mid-Atlantic ridge in 4-5 days time; every other major op run (UKMO, ECM, GEM, JMA) has a flatter pattern and the GFS 18z has more or less joined in with that line of thinking.

However...

The notion of an immense area of high pressure over Asia, centered over Sibeira or thereabouts, that resists the attempt by the convective flare up in the Indian Ocean to take it down and if anything may grow even stronger - well, that's gained plenty of cross-model support today 

Now here's the thing - that blocking high may in fact give us a hard time before it's able to bring us much in the way of cold, snowy weather. You see, there's a lot of background support from the atmosphere (via the teleconnections - El Nino and the westerly QBO in particular) for there to be deep trough activity in the vicinity of Greenland, as the polar vortex descends on the region from the stratosphere, yet that Siberian High also has a lot of support, not just from the El Nino event but the feedbacks from the October snow cover advance as well, with the arctic sea ice also shaping up nicely for giving the block a boost. It really is no wonder that the feature is looking exceptionally large and strong on some of the model output at the moment.

Long story short, a mighty Siberian High battling a strong polar vortex is highly likely to end up displacing that vortex into the North Atlantic, placing it not far NW or N of the UK. For us, that means a wild ride with a real mix of warmer and colder airmasses but probably not getting all that cold for the most part. I believe this chart from the GFS 18z op run is a very good example of what I mean:

There's also an Alaskan Ridge attacking the PV from the other side of the pole. It can be traced back to the flare up of convection in the Indian Ocean, but as that convective activity is looking increasingly likely to die back down before long, support for that ridge should collapse soon into December. Believe it or not, that's actually a good thing in terms of lending the support to attacks on the vortex from an angle that's more likely to interfere with the vortex in ways that tend to bring the cold and snowy conditions our way. So today's developments - reducing the longevity of that ridge in favour of a continued, supersized Siberian High - have been promising in that regard 

Yep.  A very well put discussion about the general big picture of Model GFS and UKMO.

It seems good.  We have Slow Moving Highs, with Polar Vorticity Low's in the areas we can see on Maps.

The Mild Pools are met by passing Slider West and NW flows - we look likely to get a good variety to our Week in week out weather- Overall, both cold and also some more normal conditions shall be seen from this sequence we're going through.

Also there: is some WAA going up the West NW Atlantic, Over the Mid N Atlantic High, just as it is for E Siberia E NE Russia NE Siberia etc.

These Deep Low's are driving SE some cold Arctic air masses mixing with the SSW flow on the SE and E side of these Low's ahem- shown to affect Newfoundland and NE plus W NW of N Atlantic.  Pacific very similarly - We have Russia Siberia High to our East NE and ESE Russia E Siberia Deep Low with it affecting area NW of N Pacific.

N Europe Southerly flow East side, UK about to get on a Cold NNW Arctic plunge.

Westerly flow on Monday Low moves through Iceland then NW UK, that cross us Tuesday - with Wednseday that may possibly sustain another Arctic Cold Northerly- With High Pressure over Mid and Central to ENE Europe Tuesday and Wednesday - that is way I seeing it.

Good post Stormchaser.

 😄😄💨💦.

That's the most authoritative winter is over post TWO has ever had in November.

No

LOL The ensembles 'only' go out to T+360 so that's the first week in December, lots of time for something completely different (or the same)

Brave call Marcus- both MOGREPS and ensembles support this scenario. My advice would be to enjoy this weekends sleety showers- because that's the best you may get to see for some time.

You are hopecasting again Jacko - you know full well that our normal winter fare is frigid northerly, followed by bitter easterly, with persistent lying snow and frozen waterways.

I will take this sleety lot for starters in November.It has been a long while since snow fell here that early.Not even in 09/10

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/11/20/basis06/ukuk/prty/15112106_2006.gif

I would also call it that the area of snow will be greater than shown in the Pennines.

MM I suppose it was wishful thinking- those balmy December evenings and Christmas Day T-Shirt weather was more in line with my way of thinking.....

As Doc has just pointed out- BIG differences not so far out between two big guns- I really am interested to see what ECM makes of things.

Yes, it's the end of the run, but interesting that GFS has found a way to link the heights from Svalbard to Greenland...