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doctormog
02 December 2015 18:37:25


Http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png 


temperature wise yes doc, but rain spikes look pretty regular and quite ominous. Some flooding for a few I would sadly suspect :-(


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Yes, you're right but not based on those data or not the op values alone. For here, unlike the majority, it actually looks a little drier than average thanks to the rain shadow effect from the mountains.  Elsewhere, especially in the west, it does look like the rain and at times the wind could be more of a talking point than the temperatures.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2015 18:57:08


 


ECM already did! That looks very much like the control run of the 0z ECM at 252 (when I mentioned the "fun and games" started).


Here's hoping the 12z follows suit...


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Not bad not quite as good as the GEM but very cold . Much better than the total dross we have now though.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2015 19:08:36

Not quite there just yet from the ECM but lots of promise. Massive Arctic high to finish.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
roger63
02 December 2015 19:51:18


Not quite there just yet from the ECM but lots of promise. Massive Arctic high to finish.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


However the 240h ECM is just another toppler!

Polar Low
02 December 2015 20:05:02

However the ecm n/h profile looks better than it has for quite sometime



 



 


However the 240h ECM is just another toppler!


Originally Posted by: roger63 

Solar Cycles
02 December 2015 20:43:19


However the ecm n/h profile looks better than it has for quite sometime



 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

All looks a little too far west for anything more prolonged PW.

Polar Low
02 December 2015 20:49:43

Would have liked to have seen this mornings control sc.


lucky Darren


http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim


waiting for update from them


 


 



All looks a little too far west for anything more prolonged PW.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Russwirral
02 December 2015 22:05:18


All looks a little too far west for anything more prolonged PW.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


I dont think the pressure to the north west is the story here....


 


The pressure over central europe to me is a bigger story.  Unless the pressure drops there - we might end up with the best northerly of our lives which goes as far as hull and runs off to Estonia!


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
doctormog
02 December 2015 22:08:33


 


 


I dont think the pressure to the north west is the story here....


 


The pressure over central europe to me is a bigger story.  Unless the pressure drops there - we might end up with the best northerly of our lives which goes as far as hull and runs off to Estonia!


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Sounds good. 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Solar Cycles
02 December 2015 22:17:38


 


 


I dont think the pressure to the north west is the story here....


 


The pressure over central europe to me is a bigger story.  Unless the pressure drops there - we might end up with the best northerly of our lives which goes as far as hull and runs off to Estonia!


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

I was alluding to it showing a more west based -NAO  setting up which isn't always that favourable for us, of course heights lowering over Europe is a positive thing but we still need heights to NW a little further east.

Phil G
02 December 2015 22:55:16

Interesting run from GFS showing HP trying to come in from the NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif

Doesn't make it this time, but perhaps things turning in favour for the cold camp.


 

Retron
03 December 2015 03:43:07
Last night's 12z ECM control run was very similar again - low pressure moves SE'wards over the UK around 252, introducing an Arctic northerly in conjunction with a large high extending south from Greenland. Cold northerlies then affect the UK out to 360, by which time most of the UK is under sub-510dam air... and there are a series of small, snowy lows caught in the flow.

It's poised to go on for some time as well.

Good consistency so far!
Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
03 December 2015 06:51:08

Are there records for mean wind speeds over a calendar day? If there are I wonder whether in some locations in England and Wales a new record could be set on Saturday?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nsrobins
03 December 2015 08:04:29


Are there records for mean wind speeds over a calendar day? If there are I wonder whether in some locations in England and Wales a new record could be set on Saturday?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I was thinking exactly the same thing Brian after looking at the synoptic chart. 


The consistent tight spacing and gradient SW to NE across much of the UK could result in done remarkable mean speed measurements.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
03 December 2015 08:06:56


Are there records for mean wind speeds over a calendar day? If there are I wonder whether in some locations in England and Wales a new record could be set on Saturday?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



I doubt it'll be anywhere near as vile as that Pre-Christmas wind storm in late December 2013 courtesy of a sub 930 mb low off to the north west of the UK. That gave my location 50 straight hours of 23 m/s mean wind speed, that was very tiring. On this occasion it looks like being 16 to 20 m/s means for about 24 hours over the weekend, windy but manageable and even then it doesn't look like it'll come with that much in the way of rain for my back yard. Of course, it's really western parts that will get to feel it more but again, it does so most winters anyway.

Anyway, back to the here and now, looks like being the same old same old for the foreseeable future - or at least in the next 7 to 10 days.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Polar Low
03 December 2015 08:26:08

You would have to register Brian, Data goes back to 1949 but it is only uploaded monthly.


http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/a1f65a362c26c9fa667d98c431a1ad38


 


 



Are there records for mean wind speeds over a calendar day? If there are I wonder whether in some locations in England and Wales a new record could be set on Saturday?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Gooner
03 December 2015 08:29:12

Last night's 12z ECM control run was very similar again - low pressure moves SE'wards over the UK around 252, introducing an Arctic northerly in conjunction with a large high extending south from Greenland. Cold northerlies then affect the UK out to 360, by which time most of the UK is under sub-510dam air... and there are a series of small, snowy lows caught in the flow.

It's poised to go on for some time as well.

Good consistency so far!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Keep us informed then Darren

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2015 08:49:50

Not a bad day 10 mean from the ECM. Mid month cold spell still very possible this morning.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reemnh2401.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
picturesareme
03 December 2015 08:55:43


Not a bad day 10 mean from the ECM. Mid month cold spell still very possible this morning.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reemnh2401.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


looks very much like it is now - high to the south, low to the north. Southern England in mild S/SW North in cold NW/N, Central UK wet. 

Polar Low
03 December 2015 08:56:43

is something brewing gfs control also in festive spirit   look at that slumping jet


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=360&mode=0&carte=1


 



 


Keep us informed then Darren


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Gusty
03 December 2015 09:19:31

A lot of optimism here this morning..I think I must be missing something because I can't see anything just yet.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



David M Porter
03 December 2015 09:45:16


A lot of optimism here this morning..I think I must be missing something because I can't see anything just yet.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


The way I see it is that we're not looking at a classic cold spell anytime in the near future, but possibly a more interesting pattern compared to what we've had over the past month. Possibly a bit colder at times too, although not anything severe.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
03 December 2015 10:02:00


 


The way I see it is that we're not looking at a classic cold spell anytime in the near future, but possibly a more interesting pattern compared to what we've had over the past month. Possibly a bit colder at times too, although not anything severe.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Summed up very well


 


Better than the present, it has to be said

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


roger63
03 December 2015 10:18:45


Not a bad day 10 mean from the ECM. Mid month cold spell still very possible this morning.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reemnh2401.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


The control looks like a clear  outlier.In the 20 ens at 384h can only find two cold northerly set up.

JACKO4EVER
03 December 2015 10:24:26


 


The control looks like a clear  outlier.In the 20 ens at 384h can only find two cold northerly set up.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


I was suspecting the same Roger. In the meantime batten down the hatches and make sure the rowing boat is ready

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