8 out 21 are cold in the mid-term, 13 of them show milder conditions but only a couple show prolonged mildness, the rest go up and down like a yo-yo.

As I'm sure you know, when the models are all over the place like this it usually means a big change is on the way (and in this case, that means anything except a continuation of this mild dross we've endured for weeks down here). If we were going to see a continuation of the prolonged mild spell, for example, you would see the vast majority of runs showing it and they're simply not at the moment...

How do we get to view the GOVERNMENT CM 12z run?

Yes, but their resolution - horizontal and vertical - has in the last week been increased. Horizontal is now 0.5 deg which is the same as GFS was until earlier this year. The GEFS upgrade hasn't been discussed much but the changes are very substantial and I'm not sure how they stack up alongside MOGREPS and ECM ENS. 

My iPad made that one up in autocorrect I am afraid!  I had (mis)typed ECMWF and that is what I ended up with!

Cheers- I wasn't being funny- I thought there was a model I'd not heard of with a chance of an even better outlook than the GFS 12!

I think the models are a little too progressive with heights over Greenland within the next 10 days. Look East at this moment in time.

 In practical terms what for you qualifies as a pattern change? Would 3 to 5 days of chill high pressure followed by several weeks of above average CET on a west/south westerly tick the box? Or would only several weeks of below average CET be required to meet your criteria?

After the weather we have been suffering in recent weeks, 3 to 5 days of chill HP would be a godsend.

This chart from the JMA may be close to the mark.  There have been a number of times in recent winters where a high over Greenland has failed to deliver cold to the UK, as the more potent and permanent player is the Euro-slug high.  The winds will be less mild, although SWly there is an element of recycled polar air returning for most, so mild but not THAT mild.

Don't look at ECM12z. 

Oops too late!  Not hugely dissimilar to the JMA at day 8, here it is (ECM) at day 9:

gfs up to its old tricks with that Aleutian dart board that is some winter storm affecting upstream pattern I dont believe it

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0&carte=1

Yep, some very mild pulses. Given the starting point I expect there would be a good chance of December CET being the highest recorded if it verified. However, I still think we'll get a colder snap mid month onwards.

. 

Even more notable Brian the far east temp anomaly, keep eating those mushrooms for now anyway

We will only be able to describe it as "reality" if what ECM shows actually verifies. It is mere speculation at the moment, just as what has been shown on the 12z and 06z GFS runs is.

FWIW, it seems that the behaviour of the LP to the west of the UK next weekend will likely have a big say in what follows thereafter. I really wouldn't like to try and call it one way or another just now.

We have a phenomenal CET for the first 8 days of the month. But don't forget there is still 3 weeks left and a lot can happen in that time.

Its a bag of pants

Where is Darren to cheer me up

I agree with what David says about it being difficult to call the rest of this month but I am going to say I reckon my CET estimate will be too low and the record could well go.

I hope it doesn't though.

GEFS 12h Ens has 50:50 Mild:Cold at both 240h and 360h. However the position of the HP vraies alot with a tendency for HP to east or south east and little sign of real northern blocking.

Nevertheless there are signs  of  a weaker zonal flow and more southerly tracking LP's

But still no real convincing cold spell in sight.

Looks like a fair bit of uncertainty after the next week, in fairness we do have a rather unusual pattern with lower then usual sea level pressure over the Azores, in contrast to the previous two winters were it has been pretty persistent.

How ironic then that we still get very mild conditions under cyclonic SW winds. The problem is the very stubborn area of high pressure across Europe, which has persisted pretty much since mid November. Hopefully this will ease some point soon, the latest GFS shows this at least... lets hope its onto something.