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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
08 December 2015 22:40:49

I have to say next week Monday GFS and UKMO have more rain, but a Weaker Cyclonic Low- this looks like a downer ahem.


Another one way out in SouthWest in West N Atlantic has both mild air and cool air in it cyclonic flow.


Looks like Cold with some hill Snow this Thursday Friday in NW then North UK, light winds and mild in South generally at same time Thurs Fri.


Looks like Cool high pressure this Weekend, feeling mild.


That Low in SW of NW Atlantic could head 300 miles ENE from next week Monday to Tuesday, dragging cold air into it from SE Canada & South Greenland High.


Our Monday Low with mild SW winds could move 300 mile NE with colder air move into Western and NW UK - Central and Mid North Atlantic to West SW UK high build from Tuesday 12:00 to following Wednesday, with winds a northerly as Tuesday Low goes to North Sea and North Sea SW Norway, linking with Cold Arctic Low from NW Norwegian Sea and Low move South from Svalbard during Wednesday and Thursday next Week.


Tuesday Low deepens with some Cyclonic winds over the UK heavy rain then blustery showers quite possible, mild in Central SE UK but even here it could turn colder with cold NW winds Tuesday night onwards next week.


 


😆😀🌦🌧💦


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Solar Cycles
08 December 2015 23:04:43


 


The 18Z is problematic - sure, it gives a Scandi HP, but it is damn all use to us in the given timeframe, because heights remain stubbornly high over central Europe,


A Scandi HP without LP to our south is as much use as a chocolate teapot.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Height rises to our east is what I'm looking for ( not like they deliver much IMBY ) until the latter end of the month then we're playing pin the tail on the donkey on where any favourable ( if any ) warming of the strat  leaves us.

Gooner
08 December 2015 23:49:04

FI starts around +96 for me, of course we know now that the rest of December is going to mild.😜

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Its all over the shop , I'll give you that


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
08 December 2015 23:58:12


Just to kid myself there is something worth waiting for


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Solar Cycles
09 December 2015 00:00:14



Just to kid myself there is something worth waiting for


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

The countdown begins.😄

moomin75
09 December 2015 00:03:40



Just to kid myself there is something worth waiting for


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

That won't come off as that's the day I return from Australia. January will see all the snow when I'm not around.  ðŸ˜‚


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Retron
09 December 2015 06:25:03
Not much change this morning - there are still two distinct clusters after this weekend, a milder (but not as mild as present) option and a colder option. The balance of probability is swinging back and forth (the 0z GEFS has the colder cluster being dominant) but again that's expected as the models continue to struggle with the upstream pattern. Last night's 12z ECM control was one of the milder cluster, showing a generally zonal outlook.

(And to answer Brian's question from yesterday, I'd consider a pattern change to be anything that takes us away from the overwhelmingly mild setup we have had for the past couple of weeks. That could take the form of zonal (as per the milder cluster) or a more blocked pattern (as per the colder cluster); it would need to be a week or more of that for me to consider it a change.)
Leysdown, north Kent
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 December 2015 06:38:07
Anyone who loves records will be crossing fingers the ultra mild option as shown on a couple of runs yesterday will win out. We have a chance of a record warm December. Let's keep the cold for the new year.

I've not been paying attention to the models for a few days. Came in here and got the impression we were about to have a cold snap. Then looked at this morning's GEFS and got a very different impression. Looked damn mild to me.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Maunder Minimum
09 December 2015 06:49:41

Anyone who loves records will be crossing fingers the ultra mild option as shown on a couple of runs yesterday will win out. We have a chance of a record warm December. Let's keep the cold for the new year.

I've not been paying attention to the models for a few days. Came in here and got the impression we were about to have a cold snap. Then looked at this morning's GEFS and got a very different impression. Looked damn mild to me.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Just damn then!


As for breaking records - Idon't think we want any more rainfall records broken thank you very much.


New world order coming.
Ally Pally Snowman
09 December 2015 06:54:15

Anyone who loves records will be crossing fingers the ultra mild option as shown on a couple of runs yesterday will win out. We have a chance of a record warm December. Let's keep the cold for the new year.

I've not been paying attention to the models for a few days. Came in here and got the impression we were about to have a cold snap. Then looked at this morning's GEFS and got a very different impression. Looked damn mild to me.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


If we don't get a cold spell we will smash the record that's for sure. We could well finish witha December cet above 9c and that after the third warmest November. Crazy surreal weather.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gusty
09 December 2015 07:12:08

Cooler for a time this weekend, especially in the north before milder air pushes in from the south again from Sunday and Monday would be my appraisal of the models this morning.


At face value a deep cold trough over Scandinava looks tempting but higher heights over Greenland continue to only appear in FI and high pressure dominant over Europe throughout maintains the mild status quo, especially the south.


IMO the GEFS ensembles don'toffer too much hope for the coldies at the moment but this can change as we all know.


A record breaking mild December is also very much on the cards if the synoptics continue to play out the way they are. 


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Ally Pally Snowman
09 December 2015 07:14:59

Well the ECM is an absolute stinker. Who's up for a record cet?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Shropshire
09 December 2015 07:16:51

Anyone who loves records will be crossing fingers the ultra mild option as shown on a couple of runs yesterday will win out. We have a chance of a record warm December. Let's keep the cold for the new year.

I've not been paying attention to the models for a few days. Came in here and got the impression we were about to have a cold snap. Then looked at this morning's GEFS and got a very different impression. Looked damn mild to me.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


How do you know the cold will come in the New Year ? Mild Decembers over the last 20 years have nearly always been followed by mild Januarys and Februarys according to my records.


 


Dreadful output today, feel desperately sorry for the flood stricken areas with so much more to come. 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
nsrobins
09 December 2015 07:19:00
Although I'd like to be seeing a few sub -10 members by now, I believe the period around the 14th and the behaviour of the 'warm' trough still needs resolving. A cool, seasonal weekend will at least be a pleasant change for many and if it does stay mild until the end of the year, it will be no different than many LRFs proposed given the ENSO status.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Maunder Minimum
09 December 2015 07:26:22

I give up! No more model watching for me, it is a complete waste of time given our stinking climate!


New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
09 December 2015 07:28:29



(And to answer Brian's question from yesterday, I'd consider a pattern change to be anything that takes us away from the overwhelmingly mild setup we have had for the past couple of weeks. That could take the form of zonal (as per the milder cluster) or a more blocked pattern (as per the colder cluster); it would need to be a week or more of that for me to consider it a change.)


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 Seems reasonable to me. 


IMO the most likely severe weather possibilities in the next couple of week are:


1) Further serious flooding


2) December CET potentially the mildest recorded


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
wallaw
09 December 2015 07:33:09


I give up! No more model watching for me, it is a complete waste of time given our stinking climate!


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


It certainly seems like our Eternal Autumn is set to continue for some time yet. The one hope for me is the frequency with which the runs flirt with a pattern change. Nothing in the next 7-10 days of course, but a change will come.


Ian


Stockton-on-Tees

Robertski
09 December 2015 07:47:26


 


It certainly seems like our Eternal Autumn is set to continue for some time yet. The one hope for me is the frequency with which the runs flirt with a pattern change. Nothing in the next 7-10 days of course, but a change will come.


Originally Posted by: wallaw 


Of course it will, just most likely in spring.


 


With the slug to our south for the moment our winter is on hold, especially down south. 

Crepuscular Ray
09 December 2015 08:10:38


I give up! No more model watching for me, it is a complete waste of time given our stinking climate!


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


As I said yesterday....live stress free and stick to the MetO 5 day faxes. IMO the most accurate. After 5 days it's Fantasy Island anyway!


For me up here, the faxes keep showing brief colder incursions of sub 528 dam air so we get brief snow events. We've had 4 already this season and we are not sharing in England's exceptional mildness just stormy and wet mostly.


 


Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
future_is_orange
09 December 2015 08:14:18
Unusual warmth in many eastern U.S. cities over the weekend Washington New York St Louis Chicago and Ottawa in Canada also likely to see temps 20f above average.
Gooner
09 December 2015 08:14:38


 


As I said yesterday....live stress free and stick to the MetO 5 day faxes. IMO the most accurate. After 5 days it's Fantasy Island anyway!


For me up here, the faxes keep showing brief colder incursions of sub 528 dam air so we get brief snow events. We've had 4 already this season and we are not sharing in England's exceptional mildness just stormy and wet mostly.


 


Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



 


Are you kidding ?


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Nordic Snowman
09 December 2015 08:44:40


 


 Seems reasonable to me. 


IMO the most likely severe weather possibilities in the next couple of week are:


1) Further serious flooding


2) December CET potentially the mildest recorded


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Agree Brian. Mild is the theme in Norway too and in fact, across much of the so-called N Hemisphere winter zones.


 


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
David M Porter
09 December 2015 09:10:17


 


As I said yesterday....live stress free and stick to the MetO 5 day faxes. IMO the most accurate. After 5 days it's Fantasy Island anyway!


For me up here, the faxes keep showing brief colder incursions of sub 528 dam air so we get brief snow events. We've had 4 already this season and we are not sharing in England's exceptional mildness just stormy and wet mostly.


 


Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


Where I live, it hasn't been as persistently mild since mid-November as it had been during the first half of that month. There have been more by way of colder days in between the milder ones.


Like I said yesterday, and as I think Neil alluded to above, the issue of the behaviour of the LP to the west of the UK this coming weekend needs to be resoved before we can be anywhere approaching sure of where we go from there. This feature does seem to have been causing the models some issues, to my eyes.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Solar Cycles
09 December 2015 09:10:40
The atmosphere is responding in full Nino mode but there are signs of this waning now and this month is far from resolved despite the doomsayers in here and the those looking for records ( good grief who wants anymore of this ).

All of the of the output over the last few days has been a dogs dinner and until they've a better handle on the upstream pattern for next week then it's still all to play for.
roger63
09 December 2015 09:11:59

FWIW  GEFS shows the following splits mild:cold  180h 50:50 HP  cold members have HP close or over UK. 240h 50:50 360h 85:15 after a period of slacker circulation, stronger zonal circulation is back in time for Xmas.


the only hope I can offer is that the HP shown around 180h spreads and ends up in a more favourable postion.

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