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Shropshire
09 December 2015 19:44:42

Incredible ECM, surely some favoured parts could see 17/18C next Thursday if that comes off ?

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Shropshire
09 December 2015 19:49:10


 


Not a trend any of us coldies would have wanted to see. It is one thing to identify such a trend, but it is another thing to explain why it has happened. Is it just yet another multi-decadel ossilation? Clearly we have lived in the wrong period for enjoying UK winters.


Is it irreversible or can we get rid of the Euroslug when we vote for Brexit?


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


I fear they won't send us their easterlies when we leave - not that they send them now anyway 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Sevendust
09 December 2015 19:50:18

I would agree that ECM is impressive if you like a mild set up.


What is interesting is the lack of Northern Blocking on most output as well as the seemingly relentless jet which explains why the latest GEFS ensembles are not fantastic either for cold.

moomin75
09 December 2015 19:50:53


Incredible ECM, surely some favoured parts could see 17/18C next Thursday if that comes off ?


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

That would actually be possible in favoured spots in the sun with a bit of Foehn effect. That would be wonderful as long as it stops bloody raining!!!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
SJV
09 December 2015 19:51:55


Incredible ECM, surely some favoured parts could see 17/18C next Thursday if that comes off ?


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


I don't want to drag this too far off-topic, but what's the December temperature record? Any chance we're in with a shout of breaking it? 

moomin75
09 December 2015 19:55:13


 


I don't want to drag this too far off-topic, but what's the December temperature record? Any chance we're in with a shout of breaking it? 


Originally Posted by: SJV 

From MetO website.


December 2nd 18.3C in the Highlands 1948.


Would be truly exceptional to break that record now we are heading towards the middle of the month but wouldn't rule it out. 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
09 December 2015 19:55:51


Incredible ECM, surely some favoured parts could see 17/18C next Thursday if that comes off ?


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 



Quite different to GFS , dont get sucked in by one model, miles too far off

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


moomin75
09 December 2015 20:02:59


 



Quite different to GFS , dont get sucked in by one model, miles too far off


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Very mild all the same Marcus with temps into the teens even on that chart. So in any brightness away from the rain you could still see 14/15 degrees.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
roger63
09 December 2015 20:03:41


Here's an interesting graphic from NCEP which supports the trend towards higher pressure over Europe in the winter months.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Brian thanks for this.Yesterday a friend of mine said he felt that the winter weather was increasingly demonstrating a NW/SE split and were their any statistics that demonstrated such  a trend.I guess this is pretty good example of such a trend on the  pressure front.

SJV
09 December 2015 20:10:17


From MetO website.


December 2nd 18.3C in the Highlands 1948.


Would be truly exceptional to break that record now we are heading towards the middle of the month but wouldn't rule it out. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Thanks 


You never know. Chances are it won't be broken, but it's not impossible looking at some charts this evening 

roger63
09 December 2015 20:12:59

I do think that METO have done a good job in their forecasting so far this Autumn/Winter.They have had the big picture right- NAO + for November and so far December.In the shorter term they have flagged up possible interruptions to the zonal flow ie cold snaps but have put appropriate caveats/probabilities on these.


I think METO do an excellent job on the  whole and we should give them more credit.( Beware Mr Osborne is seeking to sell off whatever he can and that could include the Met Office)

Gusty
09 December 2015 20:16:40

Time to get real now..abandon hope of a pre Christmas cold spell and ramp up the possibility of a record mild December..we sensed a pattern change was due..we were correct..it could get even milder ! 


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The Beast from the East
09 December 2015 20:19:38

It does still feel like September or October. If we are going to stay mild, then let it be very mild to warm but sunny


What a disaster. This must be the worst outlook I have seen since the internet era. Perhaps  on a par 98/99


 

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squish
09 December 2015 21:15:31
http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/pluim_06260_0_00_60.png 

More ECM members going cold (for Debildt) - although probably from a continental high rather than any kind of set-up that might be interesting for us
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
09 December 2015 21:19:16
Worst chart of the night

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

and the best....

...can't find one (although GEM +240 is quite tasty)
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Karl Guille
09 December 2015 21:29:50
Nothing remotely to get excited about but the ECM mean in the 8-10 day period is markedly lower on the 12z as compared to the 6z on de bilt with a fair cluster hovering around 0-2 degrees mark. I still think the tracking of our low to the south-west at T96 is going to have a fairly big impact on the subsequent positioning of our high pressure and the chances, slight that they are, of pressure falling over the south of France / Italy to facilitate a colder outlook towards the Christmas period.
St. Sampson
Guernsey
squish
09 December 2015 21:33:19

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1947/Rrea00119470118.gif

This is the chart that is always trawled out to show how things can go from seemingly hopeless to stunning in a few short days....

or this one....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910120.gif

or this one...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101116.gif

In fact the last one does look remarkable similar to the forecasted set up in a day or two :)





eg ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
marting
09 December 2015 21:34:33


The Xmas day GEFS12z postage stamps are pretty interesting and worth watching in the coming days:


PS: Click through for almost full sized version



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


These were interesting as quite a few cold ones appearing. The 2m temps also indicate a dip at this time. May be hope for last few days of the month🤔😋


Martin

Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
moomin75
09 December 2015 21:54:38


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1947/Rrea00119470118.gif

This is the chart that is always trawled out to show how things can go from seemingly hopeless to stunning in a few short days....

or this one....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910120.gif

or this one...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101116.gif

In fact the last one does look remarkable similar to the forecasted set up in a day or two :)





eg ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif


Originally Posted by: squish 

Very true Squish but the big difference between 2010 and today is that MetO were bullish about a change to much colder weather in their 30 dayers in 2010. No sign of this this time and that ECM 240 chart is one of the most horrendous I have ever seen in winter with the Euroslug stretching across the Atlantic right up to the Siberian steps and beyond.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
KevBrads1
09 December 2015 22:06:21


Very mild all the same Marcus with temps into the teens even on that chart. So in any brightness away from the rain you could still see 14/15 degrees.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


The first teen number is thirteen.....anyway, GFS has eleven and twelves with the odd thirteen.

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Saint Snow
09 December 2015 22:08:30

Can the good old Pub Run offer us any festive cheer?


Or will it have donned a Salvation army uniform, forsaken the blessed nectar, and become a mealy-mouthed temperance bar?


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Aneurin Bevan
Maunder Minimum
09 December 2015 22:15:15


Can the good old Pub Run offer us any festive cheer?


Or will it have donned a Salvation army uniform, forsaken the blessed nectar, and become a mealy-mouthed temperance bar?


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


it does actually build a Scandi HP, but it doesn't help us I'm afraid because the Euroslug refuses to die.


Please administer some slug pellets pronto!

New world order coming.
Phil G
09 December 2015 22:19:37
Quite a change on the GFS run this evening from as early as T144.
Maunder Minimum
09 December 2015 22:22:33

Quite a change on the GFS run this evening from as early as T144.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


The poor dear is trying its best, but unless we can get a trough digging into Europe, it will come to nought. We need heights to drop over France,Spain and central Europe. Let's see how the run progresses.

New world order coming.
Solar Cycles
09 December 2015 22:22:45
Bah humbug to this model watching lark.😡

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