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Chunky Pea
15 December 2015 22:30:29
If tonight's EC mean out to day 15 is to be believed then Tm air masses and southerly sourced winds will be the dominant feature right up to the end of the month.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

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picturesareme
15 December 2015 23:19:57


 


Where's that then


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


you missed out the crucial 'relatively' part ;)


Yeah there has been rain down here, but by no means a wash out.. And the rains are seldom heavy & long lived, with some good dry periods in between.

Hungry Tiger
15 December 2015 23:22:03

This winter could turn out like 1974 - 1975. Nothing wrong with that one if you're a mildie.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


squish
15 December 2015 23:45:55
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-360.png 

Definite trend for high pressure to build in from the south to close the year (as per METO outlook). Nearly every 18z GEFS has it, with one raging easterly as per the 12z .....

Until then 10 days of mild/wind and rain pretty much nailed on
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Gooner
16 December 2015 00:00:10


 


you missed out the crucial 'relatively' part ;)


Yeah there has been rain down here, but by no means a wash out.. And the rains are seldom heavy & long lived, with some good dry periods in between.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Nope, I saw it , but rain is rain whether its lashing down or just nuisance value , either way its crap

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
16 December 2015 06:50:57
We had a good chance at a pattern change last weekend, but in the end the high wasn't able to achieve enough amplitude to force lows on a more southerly track - the nascent block collapsed SE'wards and we're now back into the mild drek.

The next chance for a change is now showing in both GEFS and ECM EPS - just after Christmas it look as though pressure will build strongly to our SE and east, with what some would call a "Sceuro" high forming. Last night's ECM-15 control run, for example, has a whacking great high over Germany, Poland and Belarus by the end of its run (30th Dec).

Signs of this are showing up nicely in the GEFS too:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1 
(Pressure chart for London).

This will at least lead to a drying out, although fog is likely to be an issue with all that moisture in the ground and high dewpoint air stagnating. At this stage it doesn't look like immediately leading into a cold pattern, but if nothing else high pressure at this time of year leads to a general cooling due to the lack of insolation.

At least there's something to chase now, I'll leave the excitement over the current mild weather to other posters!
Leysdown, north Kent
nsrobins
16 December 2015 07:03:04
It is as they say relentless.
The possibility of a significant storm between Xmas Eve and Boxing Day is also quite high with the pattern as it is.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Shropshire
16 December 2015 07:11:49

Hopefully we can get the Euro High over us later on to dry things out, though the NW would always be more prone to rain in such a synoptic. I'd think even if it happens it will end up slipping back SE over Europe and by then it could be mid-Jan 

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Retron
16 December 2015 07:27:42


Hopefully we can get the Euro High over us later on to dry things out, though the NW would always be more prone to rain in such a synoptic. I'd think even if it happens it will end up slipping back SE over Europe and by then it could be mid-Jan 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


That depends. You'd be looking for the west side of the high to be pumping warm air on a straight south-to-north trajectory. That is the way many of our cold spells have started, as after a couple of days of that the high, as if by magic, tends to migrate northwards.


It's not magic, of course, but rather a side-effect of warm air advection. The classic place for it is to the west of Greenland, but it can also work with a high over mainland Europe that ridges north into Scandinavia. It's also tied in to the stratosphere, as if you get warm southerlies passing over high enough mountains, some of the warmth gets deflected upwards - like a stream running in reverse. Get enough of that and it can have knock-on effects in the stratosphere which will then help the pattern persist.


On the other hand, if you don't achieve a south-north pattern, the warm air going up over mountains just serves to reinforce the vortex and/or jet, much as we've seen over the past few weeks.


I'm sure others can explain it better, but it's what all the trendy stuff on "the other side" regarding mountain torque, wave activity and flux is basically going on about.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
16 December 2015 07:57:17


 


That depends. You'd be looking for the west side of the high to be pumping warm air on a straight south-to-north trajectory. That is the way many of our cold spells have started, as after a couple of days of that the high, as if by magic, tends to migrate northwards.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Agree, but unfortunately I know where I'm putting my money. From a personal view wet, windy and mild or cold and snowy are both good because they get me a lot of site traffic. A slightly pumped up Euro high is an atrocious outcome and I may as well give my servers a rest if we end up with that nondescript scenario as looks quite likely. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
16 December 2015 08:24:09

I'm seeing hints, just hints of a pattern change after xmas (say ~28th). Notably the siberian high is playing a rather large role in the charts, and the polar vortex becomes more disrupted; don't think it would take all that much to get a height rise over Scandinavia. I think we can rule out anything before xmas though. 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Polar Low
16 December 2015 08:41:06

Just need a trigger to the s/w looks like it would be on its way on that chart but its gm


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=0&carte=1


 



I'm seeing hints, just hints of a pattern change after xmas (say ~28th). Notably the siberian high is playing a rather large role in the charts, and the polar vortex becomes more disrupted; don't think it would take all that much to get a height rise over Scandinavia. I think we can rule out anything before xmas though. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

roger63
16 December 2015 08:41:12

We had a good chance at a pattern change last weekend, but in the end the high wasn't able to achieve enough amplitude to force lows on a more southerly track - the nascent block collapsed SE'wards and we're now back into the mild drek.

The next chance for a change is now showing in both GEFS and ECM EPS - just after Christmas it look as though pressure will build strongly to our SE and east, with what some would call a "Sceuro" high forming. Last night's ECM-15 control run, for example, has a whacking great high over Germany, Poland and Belarus by the end of its run (30th Dec).

Signs of this are showing up nicely in the GEFS too:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1
(Pressure chart for London).

This will at least lead to a drying out, although fog is likely to be an issue with all that moisture in the ground and high dewpoint air stagnating. At this stage it doesn't look like immediately leading into a cold pattern, but if nothing else high pressure at this time of year leads to a general cooling due to the lack of insolation.

At least there's something to chase now, I'll leave the excitement over the current mild weather to other posters!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


The Xmas Day GEFS  0h ENS are now dominated by zonal  SW flow.90% of ENS are zonal.However as you say Retron there are signs of a change as we move towards 1 Jan>At that stage only 35% of ENS are zonal with anticyclonic circulation being 65%.However the HP is generally in the wrong place for cold generally to the S,SE or E.Europe is not particularly cold so even easterly flows are relatively mild at this stage.

Polar Low
16 December 2015 08:54:57

Just small hints of a better position with that ridge Brian small hints of a undercut not all is lost this side of 2015 just yet so keep the server dusted down


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


 



 


Agree, but unfortunately I know where I'm putting my money. From a personal view wet, windy and mild or cold and snowy are both good because they get me a lot of site traffic. A slightly pumped up Euro high is an atrocious outcome and I may as well give my servers a rest if we end up with that nondescript scenario as looks quite likely. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

David M Porter
16 December 2015 08:55:49


This winter could turn out like 1974 - 1975. Nothing wrong with that one if you're a mildie.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Long way to go yet though Gavin.


I remember looking at the model output almost every day during mid-late December 2012 and thinking how poor prospects looked at that time from the point of view of "coldies". As vwe know, it wasn't long into 2013 before we began to see a change. I must admit that at the tail end of 2012 I wasn't overly hopeful of a change away from mild and wet; fortunately I was proved wrong.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Polar Low
16 December 2015 09:00:17

Indeed David 1987 came at very short notice I seem to recall but then perhaps outputs were much less powerful then.


 



 


Long way to go yet though Gavin.


I remember looking at the model output almost every day during mid-late December 2012 and thinking how poor prospects looked at that time from the point of view of "coldies". As vwe know, it wasn't long into 2013 before we began to see a change. I must admit that at the tail end of 2012 I wasn't overly hopeful of a change away from mild and wet; fortunately I was proved wrong.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

KevBrads1
16 December 2015 09:09:36


This winter could turn out like 1974 - 1975. Nothing wrong with that one if you're a mildie.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


How many realise that the second half of 1981-82 was milder than the second half 1974-75 for the CET?


If I was to play a hunch, I'll go for a cooler second half to this winter. 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
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four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
16 December 2015 09:09:44

December default is mild and rather wet, there seems to be a surprising collective forgetfulness of what is normal in the UK at the start of Winter.

North York Moors weather 
Essan
16 December 2015 09:10:20


 


Long way to go yet though Gavin.


I remember looking at the model output almost every day during mid-late December 2012 and thinking how poor prospects looked at that time from the point of view of "coldies". As vwe know, it wasn't long into 2013 before we began to see a change. I must admit that at the tail end of 2012 I wasn't overly hopeful of a change away from mild and wet; fortunately I was proved wrong.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



I would sooner have mild and dry than cool, damp and occasionally slushy ......  No snow at all is better than a day of "snow" that leaves just a partial half inch covering of slush    Which is all 2012/13 gave us here .....    

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Polar Low
16 December 2015 09:12:20

I dont think I have seen a warmer anomaly like that for Europe


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html


 


 

bledur
16 December 2015 09:13:05


 


How many realise that the second half of 1981-82 was milder than the second half 1974-75 for the CET?


If I was to play a hunch, I'll go for a cooler second half to this winter. 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Well as it is an extremely mild start i should think you are bound to be right .BigGrin

David M Porter
16 December 2015 09:15:50


 


How many realise that the second half of 1981-82 was milder than the second half 1974-75 for the CET?


If I was to play a hunch, I'll go for a cooler second half to this winter. 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Sounds to me as though the 81/82 winter was similar in nature to that of 2010/11; a freezing December but then very little if anything by way of wintry weather in the following January and February.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Polar Low
16 December 2015 09:22:57

But we would take a December like that David with open arms would we not regardless what would follow a special Dec that one



 


Sounds to me as though the 81/82 winter was similar in nature to that of 2010/11; a freezing December but then very little if anything by way of wintry weather in the following January and February.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Maunder Minimum
16 December 2015 10:07:42


December default is mild and rather wet, there seems to be a surprising collective forgetfulness of what is normal in the UK at the start of Winter.


Originally Posted by: four 


This is exceptional though. Yes, our norm is mild, grey and damp, but usually with a few colder days and some overnight frosts as the cold fronts pass through.


This unremitting greyness and mildness is absurd. We have turned the heating right off it is that bad!

New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
16 December 2015 10:45:04


 


This is exceptional though. Yes, our norm is mild, grey and damp, but usually with a few colder days and some overnight frosts as the cold fronts pass through.


This unremitting greyness and mildness is absurd. We have turned the heating right off it is that bad!


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


 Absolutely. The positive CET anomaly for the month may in itself be a record breaker.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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