The Japs also agree

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=180&mode=1

They would probably make a nice couple, perhaps they have eloped together?  Maybe they can both see the futility of cold hunting just now.

LOL 

The phenomenal mildness continues. The mildie in me says it can become as warm as it likes. A 10c CET for December is still not out of the question. If we are going to set a new record let's smash it in style.

The coldie in me is encouraged to see continued signals from the ECM to bring a more direct warm upper air southerly flow across the UK post Christmas. Such a flow appears to be promoting higher heights to our NE in some output with a cold trough over western Siberia.

If we are to break out of this pattern we need to make use of the resources we have available. A slight tilt in orientation could send immense plumes of this warm air to the places we need it. 

A Scandinavian High is an option on the table for the new year if South to North WAA occurs..If it continues SW-NE then we are locked into this pattern for some considerable time yet.

There is hope yet. 

Steve Ive been watching the WAA for that S-N orientation.  It simply hasn't even been modelled right let alone happened.  Its always as you say been SW-NE which simply locks us into THE MILDNESS.

To get S-N oriented WAA at this you need a wall of high pressure all the way up into the Arctic to our east.  Without this very rare occurrence the WAA from the deep TM air masses is simply wasted.

It is definitely a case of making the most of what you've got and until something changes dramatically upstream, the only way out to cold is the S-N WAA scenario with a hoped for compensatory plunge south of frigid air.

Its all such a long way off. 1% hope.

I'll do some 500hpa stuff when the 18Z comes out, but while we wait lets look at the stratospheric polar vortex for a change.

The polar vortex is stubbornly resistant to the punches its receiving, but I think we are very slowly making progress.

I really think the first week of January is something to be optimistic about.

Something much more seasonal for the big day

Let's hope you're right there, Q. I for one am looking forward to some much more seasonal weather. This mild gunk has gone on for 6 weeks, but in some ways it seems more like 6 months! All this after a naff summer as well.

2015 really has been a screwed up year for weather.

He did say MORE seasonal. 7c is more the norm than 15c. Who knows where it will go from there should it happen😊

lol

Today was 14c

The chart shows 7c IMBY

So I would say it is something more seasonal .

You clearly disagree , I'd like to hear why?

The output today has been promising from a strat. perspective, with the ECM 12z op a particularly fine example. Having a ridge just to our east that extends so far poleward is excellent for interfering with the polar vortex, regardless of what the temps are up to in the UK.

Tamara stopped posting on 'the other side' after some rather immature reactions to one of her highly technical posts at the start of the month - one which essentially said we'd be playing the long game and looking for tropical forcing to play ball, which is exactly the route we now find ourselves walking down.

Currently my hopes in the nearer term are torn between having the mildest possible December and having some more seasonal conditions for Boxing Day. I suspect the shortwave drama going on for that time is more likely to end up with the shortwave phasing with the main Atlantic trough and another push of mild air from the southwest, but there have been enough signs to the contrary over the past 24 hours that a colder outcome has taken a seat at the table.

0z GFS another nightmarish mild fest, and perfect example of S-N WAA in vain, as the wall of high pressure to our east collapses and allows the westerlies to replace southerlies.  A waiting game indeed.  Mild now set in til the turn of the year. 

Beyond that - who knows, but I can guess...

Yes, a Paul Simon song springs to mind but we shall see. The problem is the whole process could take several weeks.

The ensembles just don't suggest this at the moment though neither ecm or GFS. Looks mild beyond new year to me .

There's not much evidence of that from the GEFS but I agree that at times gut instinct can suggest something different.

I don't agree Brian

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 Those charts below look misleading the means in n/h shown above has changed a lot over the past 3 or 4 days the profile in the Artic looks a complex one to sort, until we get a nearer conclusion who knows.

Those gfs charts are misleading Brian it is the profile in the Artic

I don't have access to the individual ECM ensemble members. Got a link? As far as I can see there seems to be a large range of options/spread at day 10 on the ECM data, often IMO indicative of some form of change. Even a few GFS op runs have suggested that.

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015121812/EEM1-240.GIF

Brian, I am not going by "gut instinct", but rather by the shift in spread and the higher resolution output that is starting to appear in the period post-Christmas. I am not claiming anything will happen simply that there are increasing signs of a change to the current situation.

I don't have access either but I've never seen a cold spell come from an ensemble graph this mild (12z yesterday). Your location might get the odd colder day but for England its mild until Jan as far as I can see.

 http://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verwachtingen/ensemble-verwachting-detail

GFS ensembles of similar crapness for the South

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

0z ECM ensembles - a huge amount of scatter after Christmas.

0z ECM postage stamps for Christmas Eve; this is as far out as they go on the public Internet. Click for full-size!